Important Announcement along with NFL Week 9 Call Your Shot

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Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

Welcome to the ColourShop podcast, your weekly sports recap podcast, where we break down the hottest headlines, dissect the latest injuries and serve up our own hard hitting analysis of the past weekend sports. But that's not all. We're not just here to talk about the past, we're here to predict the future as well. On the ColourShop podcast, we boldly predict the outcomes of the upcoming weeks games.

Speaker 2: 0:22

Hello everybody, thank you for listening. This is the ColourShop podcast with your host, alex Harris, and Drew Moore. Today's episode is going to be much shorter as we've decided to move our weekly podcast Wednesdays instead of Saturdays, just so there's more of time between our podcast and between NFL Weekend and things of that nature. But we're still going to get a little short mini episode in here for you guys today, for you betting folks out there. So we're still going to get our ColourShop segments. We have decided actually Drew has kind of decided- we're not sure if we're going to go forward with the player props.

Speaker 1: 0:50

Well, I personally have decided I am retiring from player props One because actually I just started working on a model as of last week.

Speaker 1: 1:02

Because of the recent results that have been occurring with some of the player props that I've been calling and you can call it bad luck too like Lamar Jackson slaying in that thing about to go over his prop and then all of a sudden he just decides oh actually, my pinky toe hurts, I'm just going to go out to the sideline and then not come back in the next game.

Speaker 1: 1:22

Similar kind of thing happened early on in the season with Patrick Mahomes. There's been some other things where it's like the one time that the player prop doesn't go over, they don't get whatever yardage. It was Was literally the one time when I decided that I was going to play the over or the under on it and so, and then if it doesn't hit, sometimes it's just like you know, by a half a yard, and it's because, like somebody just had a, like they, they had a rushing touchdown or whatever they had like a huge gain, and then they just decided, actually we're going to go for negative five yards in this play and then they end up missing their prop by negative five yards because of that, but I mean at the end of the day, that is.

Speaker 2: 2:07

I said we're like 80% on the call your shot games but the player props are falling this back, literally yeah. So like I think you're, you've only missed like like maybe, sorry, you're holding this five or so.

Speaker 1: 2:18

Oh, yeah, I guess it is me. No, the problem it is me. But yeah, like the, it's mainly the props, honestly, because outside the props I'm basically hitting it like 70 something percent. So well, other than the, the freaking Jets game that was, yeah, that was just bad for both of us. Can't win them all, but yeah, more of the story is I am retiring from doing props for at least two weeks until my. I work on my model. Yeah, I'm working on a model that'll. That'll figure that out. I'm working on a model that'll figure that out.

Speaker 2: 2:59

But yeah, I currently don't have a model Hmm.

Speaker 1: 3:05

I'm going to listen to it, though, when you finish it.

Speaker 2: 3:10

Um, maybe I might yes you need to do it.

Speaker 1: 3:13

I mean the logic that. I was going with before like it logistically made sense, like you know, with John, especially with John Taylors going against the worst rush defense in the league, and then he just like they just don't use them and they I don't know, whatever, it doesn't matter. More of the story is we're moving on into our call your shot segment for this week. Mr Harris, what do you have for your problem or a problem? Your shot this week.

Speaker 2: 3:47

Yeah, yeah, we're just going to flush last week. You're just going to pretend like it didn't happen because I'm going to go with the Seahawks. I have no idea what happened with them against the Ravens and I just don't want to talk about it anymore.

Speaker 1: 3:56

But they have a bounce.

Speaker 2: 3:58

Okay, Well, the Marjaks and then the Ravens have just decided that you know, everybody in the NFC when they played them is just JB competition at this point, because now they're like 19 and one and have destroyed the Lions that a lot of people thought were a top high team at the time a couple weeks ago and destroyed the Seahawks Too many people thought were at least probably like a top 10 team at the time. So you know, I'm not going to Now. I think it just shows the level of competition Kind of. You know, I think the Seahawks are going to be a playoff team but when it comes to the elite teams may not be in that category, but that's not going to stop me from betting them against the commanders this week. That's why I have opportunity. I think that I think that this spread is kind of high. Like you know, prior to last week we're five and two, but to be like six point favorites against the commanders, that's a little concerning to me. So I would choose any line.

Speaker 2: 4:45

I'll just take the straight up, I'll just choose the Seahawks and I'm not exactly sure what the money would be for that the point spread does kind of concern me, because sometimes we do let these teams hang around, like we did against the Cardinals, like we did against the Browns, so that's what I'm saying. So I don't want to have another one of those situations where we end up being the commanders by like four or something like that. So I would just take money line and just take the Seahawks straight up in this situation. I do have a dude.

Speaker 1: 5:10

You cannot take that money line. That is that is.

Speaker 2: 5:15

I'll take an alternative. I'll take an alternative to spread them because I don't want. Six is a little concerning.

Speaker 1: 5:20

I was like if one thing that I was thinking about doing is doing a parlay and I don't give up parlays because I hate parlays, but parlays are a quick way to make you go broke Anyways, you could do the. You could do a parlay, though, with the Seahawks and the Ravens, and that would probably get you down around minus one, 10 minus 120 around there. Yeah, it's minus 265. I mean, that's pretty steep for the money line, but I have another.

Speaker 2: 5:56

I have another call your problem or calling a shot game. It's different from the Ravens game, so I probably parlay it with that game. But yeah, or at least just do an alternative spread. I don't know, I'm just at home. So we should be able to cover, we should be able to win by a Lisa touchdown. We're just. I mean, this is all, man, we should do it.

Speaker 1: 6:15

Alex, we're learning to. You know you're not on your team, that's what you always say to me you have confidence in your team.

Speaker 2: 6:21

I haven't heard you make a vote for the Saints as a better favorite game this week.

Speaker 1: 6:28

I know them this year's because I know them, I know who they are, you know it's time to be a double-digit wing team. Yeah.

Speaker 2: 6:36

A lot of their games are close and they're scary.

Speaker 1: 6:39

I don't think they're going to win. Fair enough Fair enough.

Speaker 2: 6:42

I don't choose to see you know what? Fine, I'm not going to say it. I'm not going to say it. That's it. Seats minus six I'm two and no, on my Seats. They haven't let me down and, like I said, I was not betting against them last week.

Speaker 1: 6:54

So, yeah, what would be? Yeah, I mean I was going to say, I mean, like it makes sense, like they just literally traded away their whole defense, that's what I'm saying.

Speaker 2: 7:03

Wounded Tiger Drew. Wounded Duck.

Speaker 1: 7:05

Oh my God, okay, wounded Duck, yeah, and I mean that. That doesn't come into play, though, when it comes to trading away your whole defensive line. It comes into play when you fire the coach or like somebody gets like a major player gets, you know, hurt or that's not a quarterback. When they get hurt, that works, but if it's multiple players and stuff like that, it doesn't typically go well. But I do like Eric Bainamy and the offense that he is running over there, that super elite quarterback that they have in Sam Howe. You know he's good. Like I said, he's good with a clean pocket. But you know now that the Seahawks kind of have a little bit more of a pass rush with old man Leonard Williams over there.

Speaker 1: 7:57

He's kind of old, but yeah, so they could disrupt the passing game a little bit.

Speaker 2: 8:06

But it's 29.

Speaker 1: 8:07

I mean I'd old For a difference alignment old, but yeah, I think I mean also he's older than me, so it's basically at the foot in the grave. Anyways, I think that that's a solid move, solid pick. I this is what I'm gonna do. I'm gonna.

Speaker 1: 8:30

One of my picks is gonna be a parlay between the Ravens and the Seahawks, cause I don't think that either of those teams one should lose in either of their games and two will lose in either of those games. So that'll be one of my call your shots. But along with that, on the Raven side, I kind of like them, just in general. I think they're also six and a half. Currently they are playing against the Browns and a you know that's all right Divisional game, don't care.

Speaker 1: 9:08

This is my thinking is that the first time they played them, they were missing five starters and they also were missing multiple offensive starters as well. Along with that, it's one of those things where they were their offense wasn't clicking just yet, like they just implemented a new offensive scheme and they were starting to gel with the offense and trying to figure out who's going to be what part of the offense and how it's going to run and who's going to run through. Obviously, it's going to always run through Mark Andrews, but who are the other receivers that you're going to use, cause you can't just check it down to Zay flowers like 14 targets a game, like he was?

Speaker 2: 9:49

getting at the beginning of the season.

Speaker 1: 9:51

What.

Speaker 2: 9:52

It'll be Jake on the 10th of last weekend on his birthday.

Speaker 1: 9:54

Exactly, exactly.

Speaker 1: 9:57

So you got the rejuvenated, revitalized, ready to conquer the day, and then you got the version of OBJ, and then you also have some little bit more help on the ground now, with Gus Edwards being the focal point and that rookie running back to I forgot his name blanking on it right now, but they were super high on him coming into the season and he finally made a little boom of a play and that's kind of like the little, the change of pace back right there for you too, and I think it's going to be.

Speaker 1: 10:31

They've shown that they are arguably the best team in the league right now. And going against the Browns and Dishon Watts and whatever he's got going on with his shoulder, I don't care, even if he is healthy, he wasn't good when he was out there. So I'll take the Ravens in this one. If I go down, because it's a divisional game and built in familiarity or whatever and all those other narratives, I you know, so be it, but I live and breathe. I've seen the Browns play and I've seen the Ravens play and my model also likes the Ravens in this game and it's been doing well this year. So we're going to go with that.

Speaker 2: 11:15

Yeah, definitely like the Ravens pick. Would probably feel a little bit more comfortable with that because the spread is similar to the Seahawks commander's pick Divisional game usually are closer than they're predicted. But you know confidence in the Ravens. They've gone on a four or five game win streak and have actually beaten good talent the Seahawks and the Lions over the past two weeks, so have good confidence in that. My second pick would actually be the Lions or the yeah, the Lions over the Chargers.

Speaker 2: 11:41

Chargers are coming off of a little two game win streak after they lost the Cowboys a few weeks back, albeit to not that great of teams, and I still think that the Lions, coming off a bye they get David Montgomery back are just a better team and will ultimately be able to beat the Chargers pretty convincingly. Spreads only three, so I would take that with the spread. So Lions minus seven. As I mentioned, the Chargers are coming off wins against the Jets and the Bears, so I mean those are wins, I suppose, but usually the bottom of the NFL. So I would have good confidence in that. So what are your thoughts on that, drew, and would your second pick be?

Speaker 1: 12:20

Yeah, actually that was one of my other picks that I was going to choose. We can do this a different way, Mr Harris.

Speaker 2: 12:28

We can do the Moneyline all right.

Speaker 1: 12:30

I don't want to be messing around with these things. You know me, a win is a win, all right. I don't care how it looks, I want to do Moneyline instead.

Speaker 2: 12:42

For this game.

Speaker 1: 12:44

Yeah for the Lions.

Speaker 2: 12:47

I mean, I would rather it's minus 145.

Speaker 1: 12:49

That's.

Speaker 2: 12:52

For your parlay. No, no, no, no, no.

Speaker 1: 12:54

I'm saying like just in general, instead of taking the minus three with the Lions, do the Moneyline. Okay, I'm cool with that All right, because I don't want to be. Oh, I landed on three game winning field golden no.

Speaker 2: 13:11

I mean, I do have confidence in them beating the charger by more than three points, but fair enough.

Speaker 1: 13:15

Well, hey, you never know. All right, better be safe than sorry. Um, but yeah, I mean, I think any chance is this week.

Speaker 1: 13:25

Exactly Um, but yeah, I like that pick Um, you know it. It's one of those where I mean, I tried to try to go against them on Sunday night, you know to ended up not working out Um, but this, this line also opened up as the Um, the chargers were the favorites, Uh, or, yeah, the chargers were favorites, and then now they're underdogs. So this is a dog to fave line move, which is generally In any sport. It's good to Uh take the the favorite in that case scenario, um, because it takes a lot of Uh, uh, not popular, but um, professional, uh sports betters and Large wagers to be able to move that money line From one side to the other. So that's one thing on their hands. And then also, the rest advantage is a, just a massive rest advantage that the lions have Uh coming off of off the buy there.

Speaker 1: 14:27

Um, teams off the buy do typically pretty well, um, and then also the? Uh. The chargers are going to be on a short week and they're just. I, uh, I'm not liking the form that they're in right now.

Speaker 2: 14:39

Um Herbert.

Speaker 1: 14:41

Exactly. Um, herbert still has his little Splint thing going on with his finger too, and, um, the lions are finally healthy in their secondary Um, they have branch back. Branch has been solid for them too. I locking down the receivers, um, and then they're. They're getting David Montgomery back as well, and he's my, my running back number one, which is sad to say.

Speaker 2: 15:06

But and hopefully they give gives his touches. I think he proved himself in the Raiders game that he is useful and, like, capable of, you know, being a between the tackles running back as well. So even with David Montgomery back, they're probably still not going to give him his full workload that he was used to his first four or five games where he was Borderline, a pro bowler, um. So I think it'll be more of a split back field legit.

Speaker 1: 15:31

Yep, um, okay, uh, so that is Also my second pick. Uh, so I guess it's back over to you.

Speaker 2: 15:41

You know what I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna do it one more time with the player prop. I've been no, I haven't been I haven't had as bad of a Be on some of the player props as you have some of them been very unfortunate.

Speaker 2: 15:51

I just it's just that Lamar Jackson one still hurts me, um, but it's not gonna be Lamar Jackson. My pick is going to be cd lamb, his over under on receptions 5.5. So I think that he'll be able to get six receptions against the Giants. He's coming off the past two games where he has 25 Targets overall with about nearly 20 receptions, um. So I feel pretty confident in that Um. You know it may be a similar script to last time when you know the cowboys are able to capitalize on defense and, um, you know They've played the past couple weeks where they've played some pretty good teams, so the defense hasn't really really been able to thrive. So this may be one of those games and you know they may not need to use cd as much, but I still think he'll be able to at least get his six receptions against the Giants. So that would be my player prop pick.

Speaker 1: 16:33

Mm-hmm, I like it. I like it. Yeah, I mean um I. I'm just just looking at this line. It's just comical Um 17 and a half point. Favorites, like you know it's rude but at the same time, like you, there's no reason why it shouldn't be higher. Um, and they, their secondary is banged up and cd lamb has been eating the past few weeks and stuff too and it's, I don't see any reason why it would let up now.

Speaker 1: 17:08

Uh, they, they're finally letting Dak throw the ball a little bit more, have a little bit more say in In the offense, which is good and bad, because then it also puts them at risk for more turnovers, but it also gives them a chance to, um, not be held down by Mike McCarthy's offense, um, which is not very good, um, so, along with that, I, I'm I wasn't going to do it at all, like I literally wasn't even.

Speaker 1: 17:40

No, no, no, no no no, no, no Okay. I'm not doing that. I know, Okay, but I'm looking at this gigantic spread and, oh whoa, the voice sounded a little weird there. I'm looking at this gigantic spread and, should I do not, should I do it?

Speaker 2: 18:04

Yeah, that might be the biggest spread of the year.

Speaker 1: 18:09

It. If it's not, I don't know what game will be. You know, I'm saying.

Speaker 2: 18:12

I think it is up to this point.

Speaker 1: 18:13

But I don't think that they will be a bigger one. Yeah, um, yeah, I mean 80, 87 percent of the money, 73 percent of the beds Um, that's 90 on the people are taking this on the money line. That's crazy 95 percent of the money and 92 percent of the bets are on the money line. Um, my god.

Speaker 2: 18:37

Well enough, it does not. Okay, we're doing it. All right, I do not condone this division. All right.

Speaker 1: 18:46

Okay, cowboys win the division cowboys win this game. You want to double down on the division pick.

Speaker 2: 18:51

We already have the eagles cowboys in the division, so you know.

Speaker 1: 18:56

Okay, I'm good, but but I do think they did show that they can compete with Um, with philly, so that is, that was a good sign, yeah.

Speaker 2: 19:07

That they didn't just get absolutely blasted so yeah, we'll get more into it, probably on wednesday, but that game was definitely a very entertaining game. The cowboys did show that they are Capable of competing with the eagles. It just kind of feel like goes to show that the eagles are just a little bit better because, even though I feel Cowboys probably could have should have won that game, may eagles made a lot of mistakes and at the end of the day, the eagles were able to. You know, when all the the rubber needed me to throw, the eagles were able to get it. And you know, dack actually played phenomenally like he played great game.

Speaker 2: 19:38

Uh, just kind of unfortunate. You know, one yard stops at the goal line, not getting into point conversion, a lot of small things that added up for the cowboys.

Speaker 1: 19:48

Um, I, I'm doing it, I'm doing it. Seven and a half, give it to me. I, I have this line at at at 22, so so.

Speaker 2: 20:03

No, they're in a wall for the giants too. I mean, it is all looking bad.

Speaker 1: 20:07

We'll get tiger, like yeah, and typically when I have like a four point margin on a game, that's like the goldilocks zone, like those games have been hitting at like like 85 to 90 percent over the past three years and I it's in that zone is literally four and a half Like I gotta do it. I.

Speaker 2: 20:29

I'm legally obligated. Okay, you said, you said. You said. You said listen to my model I've been listening to. I said listen to the new one. Okay, that's it. I mean this is this, is the other model, that's that's been working the past few years but you know, so we're doing it, fair enough. Fair enough. Did you have another one other than that?

Speaker 1: 20:47

Or those, oh, mr Harris Do you know me, yeah, um, we're not gonna get too crazy, but we're gonna get a little crazy out here.

Speaker 2: 20:57

We just got crazy with the cowboys, okay. Yeah, that's true, fair enough, Um, you should do your alternative line, then you should just do 22 and a half. If you're gonna do it and just I'll do, I'll do, money would be on that 20 and a half. I'll do 20 and a half. Okay, uh, that way, everybody watching, please do not listen to drew in this situation.

Speaker 1: 21:16

I'm just gonna disclaim 20 and a half if you have a model that you trust and that you know and has shown to be profitable over time, trust your model. Don't make any changes to it Once it make, once it has been shown to be profitable and reliable, keep doing it, keep following it, keep trusting it.

Speaker 2: 21:35

Did the model pick the jets last week, or is that just you did? Yeah okay, fair enough.

Speaker 1: 21:42

And I mean so did high school football team. Yes, that's all right, you know, that's another one I fixed this week. Is it gonna be the jets? They are, they play the Raiders.

Speaker 2: 21:53

They are currently.

Speaker 1: 21:57

And that's the thing is that that was a Super Bowl for them last week. Smoking cigars in the locker room.

Speaker 2: 22:05

They took off two days of practice this week, yeah, like they.

Speaker 1: 22:08

They took two days off of practice this week and everything too. Like, come on, this guy is literally never called plays in his life and You're telling me he's gonna go in there against one of the best defense, like, say what you will about, you know the, the Jets offense, but You're telling me they're gonna go in there and and light up the scoreboard against the Jets who has like one of the top five defense? No, no, absolutely not. And then you got like, along with that, you have a rookie quarterback going into that, going into that game as well. I mean, yeah, I'm, I like I have to, and it's also Not to prove a point, but it's also just a thing where it's like they like the jets are bad. Don't get me wrong, they're terrible offensive offense we see.

Speaker 1: 23:02

Offensively, yes, but at the same time, there are Points throughout the season where you can find value on these bad team, bad offensive teams, or bad defensive teams too, or just bad teams in general, like the Panthers. I had the Panthers the other night. They were three and a half man. It on three sounds good to me. All guys the same. They only have to win, they just have to cover. So that's one of the things is finding value on, on these teams that are either overpriced or underpriced, and right now the jets on prime time just looked absolutely atrocious Whereas the Raiders went in there lighten up the joint, literally lighting up a joint in the locker. Multiple that would be for them, and you know I that, yeah, that that's it, point blank period.

Speaker 2: 23:55

So if you, get to a point where you need Zach Wilson to throw the ball 50 times, you probably are gonna lose.

Speaker 2: 24:00

Yeah, so you know yeah, getting sacked eight times kind of bad for him out there. It's just the thing. I don't even think the judge offense like is bad per se. Like talent wise. I just don't think that Zach Wilson is capable of, you know, being a threat To many defenses who just choose to stack the box against you know breeze Hall and then have a lot of pressure on Zach Wilson. He doesn't get any time to throw the ball and then, you know, just ends up targeting Garrett Wilson 13 times Because that's pretty much all they have is Garrett Wilson on slants, because that's all they have time for.

Speaker 1: 24:32

So unless breeze Hall breaks one out.

Speaker 2: 24:35

Their defense is gonna need to play very well and put them in a lot of favorable positions In good fields.

Speaker 1: 24:41

So yeah, which they probably can't. Yeah, I also like the under in that game too, because I don't see any off very happening.

Speaker 2: 24:52

You haven't seen a four to six game score a gummy.

Speaker 1: 24:57

Something like that will happen, and then let's see where we're gonna go here. We're gonna go with the already had the Ravens in there. We're gonna go with my Nalan Saints.

Speaker 2: 25:11

Wow breaking news.

Speaker 1: 25:16

Or whatever. So we talked about this last week how Josh Dobbs isn't the fix for the For the Vikings, right, like, and he's like a bottom tier. Dude, he's a bottom tier rocket scientist.

Speaker 1: 25:30

Oh, my god, rob, props to him, for you know, coming in and going against Arthur Smith who was like it takes time to build an offense, and you know get the quarterback to have, get the scheme down and everything, dude literally comes in there. Doesn't even know play the coaches telling them to play on the In his earpiece. They only have 15 seconds before they shut off the the. The comms to the to the quarterback and he's just like basically rattling off the play, telling him what the routes are for each while running or each five receiver, and he goes out there gets the job done.

Speaker 2: 26:07

Makes a question and making this honestly. Yeah, I guess.

Speaker 2: 26:12

Yeah like shut out to Dobbs. But I mean, yeah, and you know, he's been proven to actually he's a, he's a Medial, he's a. He's better than we thought he was going to be, much better than we thought he was going to be, and he actually has a decent amount of mobility. I don't think people thought, coming into the season with the Cardinal situation, everybody expects them to be a bottom of the tier team, which they, you know, respect kind of are. But at the same time they were in a lot more games and people gave him credit for Joshua dollars played much better than people gave him credit for, which is why the Vikings traded for him. And now he got to win against the Against the Falcons last week and that's why he's gonna beat the Drew Saints this week.

Speaker 2: 26:48

I Almost want to bet you on this game. I'm not gonna lie, I don't want to do it no. No, it's one of those things, like you know, I'll be happy if or when it happens, but I'm not gonna. I'm not stupid. Okay, give me some points you talk.

Speaker 1: 27:08

No, okay the what? Why? Why would I do that?

Speaker 2: 27:14

Oh my god, it's like, they're like three favorites is three now.

Speaker 1: 27:22

Yeah, that's fine, I'm still taking the money line.

Speaker 2: 27:28

It could be what's your model?

Speaker 1: 27:31

say. It says that it should be the Saints that win this game. Going away comfortable, no. But Let me see here yeah, I want whatever.

Speaker 2: 27:42

I want the points that your model says. That that's what I want.

Speaker 1: 27:44

I'm not giving you Literally be no value in the play.

Speaker 2: 27:50

It's not my problem. Let's see where last time I checked it was yes, three right now.

Speaker 1: 27:58

It's two and a half.

Speaker 2: 28:00

Okay, I.

Speaker 1: 28:01

Have it as Saints by four.

Speaker 2: 28:06

Well, so that's what I'm taking is money line.

Speaker 1: 28:12

But, like I was saying before I was so rudely interrupted, is that Joshua Dobbs is going against this, just elite Saints defense and and and we talked about this last week, just in case you forgot. Just in case you forgot, he's currently pro football focus ranked 23rd out of all qualified quarterbacks that have played this year in terms of rating and Last week, I think well, no, there's 27 qualified quarterbacks right now.

Speaker 1: 28:49

Yeah, so not good. And and and the only quarterbacks there currently above him or below him, I should say Gargermint you, who is rounding out the bottom of the tier right there. And then there's Bryce young, desmond Ritter, zach Wilson. No, there's Josh Dobbs. Nice, that's not good company to be in. So, like you're telling me, you have, like you're literally only gonna be able to throw the ball to TJ Hawkinson, and the Saints typically do a great job at covering, but they have like one wide receiver that they that they can go to, because Jefferson is still gonna be out, they're gonna throw a cat in.

Speaker 1: 29:32

He's tried to throw it at us in. Laddermore is gonna be locking that ass up pause and they're not gonna be able to move the ball. I don't think and not gonna have a ground running game to do anything. The Saints are typically good on the ground anyways.

Speaker 1: 29:47

Madness is like I can move the ball, then I can be able to throw the ball. It's a great story, don't get me wrong. Like I Kudos to the dude, you know being a rocket scientist out here winning games and everything and Making coaches look ridiculous like they don't know what they're doing. But Dennis Allen's a defensive guy. I think it's gonna take a lot more than you know, one one week of practice for him to be able to beat the Saints With a team that he literally doesn't even know the players names on.

Speaker 2: 30:20

So that's fair enough. I mean, like I Think that goes to show I don't know if that goes to show more about the Vikings or more about your Saints because you guys are two and a half point Favorite right now against a backup quarterback without their best receiver and without their backup running back. Just Jeff instances out can makers tour his Achilles again. I'm very, just very unfortunate. Now gets Vikings and now he did against with the Rams a couple years ago, um, and you guys are still two and a half point favorites. So, like you mentioned, tj Hawkinson, jordan Addison or bust, that's basically it. You know, sometimes KJ Osborne acts like a receiver, sometimes he doesn't, and it's gonna be Alexander Madison. That's basically what they got Against the Saints team. That should you guys should Win this game very convincingly. But the problem is that you guys are only two and a half point favorites, which is my concern, which is why I'm saying like, if you want to give me some points, I mean I'm not.

Speaker 1: 31:19

Okay, so this is. This is also the. This is probably why the line is so low. Is that, yeah, like the Saints have all these weapons and everything too?

Speaker 2: 31:29

But same record exactly.

Speaker 1: 31:31

Yeah, they haven't been able to, to utilize any of those, those weapons that they've had or that they have, I should say and they're now starting to finally use Tayson Hill and the goal on the goal line, as they should have been doing this whole time.

Speaker 2: 31:44

He's literally Unstoppable, like you you're telling me you handle all so that that guy Like I don't care how many touchdowns he vultures from from Camara.

Speaker 1: 31:54

If it means that the first score in touchdowns, then so be it, god damn it. And now not only that, he I believe he got more rushing attempts Than Tayson. Or then a album Camara.

Speaker 2: 32:07

So like on the goal line or just period?

Speaker 1: 32:11

I believe period, I'm not mistaken.

Speaker 2: 32:13

Let's go check that last game.

Speaker 1: 32:16

Yeah, go check that here.

Speaker 2: 32:19

That would be very weird.

Speaker 1: 32:22

Exactly, but in terms of what the Saints can do, they are definitely limited. When it comes to offensive production, and mainly because of our good old friend Derek Carr, because I mean, when it comes to pressure, his, his QB rating, or Passer rating, goes down to 66.9, whereas his pocket passer rating is up at 99, which still isn't the best, but it's better Than 66.9, which is atrocious.

Speaker 2: 32:59

So You're right about take the mill. He had 11 carries to album Camara's nine on much better efficiency as well.

Speaker 1: 33:07

So yeah, RB one.

Speaker 2: 33:11

Mr Do it all Swiss Army knife. Fair enough yeah so there is.

Speaker 1: 33:17

There's that one. We'll go rapid fire with these other ones here. There's only three more, so packers and Steelers under don't really have to talk too much about that one. Two terrible offenses going against decent defenses. Steelers are good, defense packers are. They've seen better days on defense but comparable they're also. Yeah, but they're also going against the ineptitude of an offense that is, the Steelers.

Speaker 2: 33:47

Jadies football exactly.

Speaker 1: 33:51

So the total. Anytime that there's a total that has been under 40, the totals have gone 15 and 9, this year 62%, and also you have to slow off that's so bad. What.

Speaker 2: 34:09

We don't expect either of you guys score more than 20 points. That's so bad.

Speaker 1: 34:13

I mean like do you Understand, but I know.

Speaker 2: 34:18

But yeah, like I mean the Steelers have been better over the past couple of the past couple weeks. You know the defense obviously put some of the favorable positions and their offense. You know They've gotten the Russian game going a little bit so.

Speaker 1: 34:33

Do you? Um? But yeah, so that is, that's that right there, taking the under in that game.

Speaker 1: 34:41

And then we have the the Denver Broncos going against the Buffalo Bills, not taking any side right game because that's that's gross, but I'm gonna take the under in that game too, for more of the same reason to slow offenses and Denver is actually the slowest offense in the league. And then there's also wind. It's gonna be about, I think it's like 11 to 15 miles an hour of wind during the game, and this is one of the systems from 2021. 64% of the time the under has hit when there's at least 10 miles an hour or more of wind. And then if it's also a conference game and there is increased amount of wind up to 10 miles an hour, that has gone up to 72% to the under. So those two factors right there Give me the under. It's also what happened?

Speaker 1: 35:35

with the bills man any exactly. And digs is also hurt or banged up, I should say is questionable for the game supposed to play.

Speaker 2: 35:44

Yeah.

Speaker 1: 35:45

You should play. I hope he plays for my fantasy football team's sake, because he is literally all I have.

Speaker 2: 35:53

Into it. We got into it again. We'll get more into it on Wednesday, but like again the what's going on with the bills man. They lost to the Bengals, so now they're on. I think they're like one in three or one in two over the past few games and they are currently outside looking in from the playoff position. They're eighth right now. If the players were starts today, they would be out. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are both ahead of them and they have the same record as the Minnesota Vikings right now.

Speaker 1: 36:16

So yeah, I mean the injury bug, like just absolutely wipe them out off the face of the earth. This season it's I don't really tough to see that dude like you. You literally lose your three times your top three defense defensive players. You're telling me your team's gonna be the same like now. No, but it's not like they're not able to the deep.

Speaker 2: 36:42

Yeah, it makes a difference. For sure, the defense hasn't been as good because of the injuries and stuff like that, but they're not scoring. They had eight, they put up 18 points against the.

Speaker 2: 36:51

Bengals. So it wasn't, and they held the bangles 24 points. So it's not necessarily the defense that's Holding the back, is Josh Allen, the turnovers. They're not moving the ball. They've scored 18 points last week. They scored 24 points the week prior and then they scored. They scored 25 points against the Patriots, but then they scored, you know, 14 points against the bill. So they and then keep going back only 20 points against the Jags. Over the past few weeks They've only averaging around 20 points.

Speaker 1: 37:14

So yeah, they have like. While Josh Allen still does great out pretty well, like he's, I believe. Let me see here he's actually second when it comes to pro football focused quarterback ratings.

Speaker 2: 37:29

However, it doesn't look like that.

Speaker 1: 37:32

Yeah, I was like it doesn't, doesn't look the part, and he's also been dealing with his shoulder thing too. So you know, like he has that going on, you can make all kinds of excuses for the guy, but at the end of the day the offense isn't able to move the ball, like you were saying, and I think it's just goes back to like the what's his name? On the on the Giants, basically the quarterback whisper Can't even say dabo, not dabo, what's his name.

Speaker 2: 38:05

Yeah, like table.

Speaker 1: 38:06

Yeah, there we go, brian, Dave, all there we go.

Speaker 2: 38:10

Ryan table.

Speaker 1: 38:11

Yep quarterback whisper, and, and he was basically able to turn around Daniel Jones. He was able to turn around Josh Allen as well. And I mean, ever since it's what's that song? Since you've been gone Basically like that's, that's what it's been, though Like, yeah, they haven't been able to have the same success on offense.

Speaker 1: 38:39

Granted, neither have the Giants, but they're also just bad, so they're just lacking talent and the bills are lacking talent, they're just like, yeah, they're just lacking direction of the offense and not having a good enough scheme to scheme players open other than Stefan Diggs who just gets open because he's just good, so agreed. But yeah, last but certainly not least, is going to be the 49ers coming off. The buy here and I talked about this earlier, in terms of buying teams at the absolute bottom of the of the of their value and selling high at the top of their value. This is one of those case scenarios where I don't think you can buy any lower on the 49ers. Well, unless of course you lose.

Speaker 2: 39:28

This week losing streak.

Speaker 1: 39:30

Yep, it's bad teams. Yeah, exactly so.

Speaker 2: 39:36

I'm not bad teams, but yeah.

Speaker 1: 39:38

No mediocre teams. Yeah, but yeah, I think, I think that I think that the 49ers are going to go in there and get this W. I do believe that the that having Debo definitely helps helps Brock Purdy turn around his numbers because he's been looking quite abysmal.

Speaker 1: 39:57

I was going to say trash. I don't know if he's trashed down at Josh Dobbs level, but he has been looking quite abysmal over the past few weeks. And also the addition of getting Trent Williams back to is definitely going to make a difference. But yeah, I mean I think that the addition of Chase Young on this defensive side is going to make all the difference in the world. Because when it comes to getting pressure on the quarterback listen to this so in terms of, Well, pressure on the quarterback, the matchup on the offensive line compared to the defensive line for the San Francisco 49ers might not sound good.

Speaker 1: 40:43

So the 49ers have a negative 13% disadvantage compared to Jacksonville's defensive line. You go down a little further San Francisco 49ers have a a plus 63% advantage compared to the Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line. So 63% advantage on the defensive line to Jacksonville's offensive line, compared to only a minus 13% disadvantage on their offensive line compared to Jacksonville's defensive line. I mean, I'm no statistician, but that don't sound good to me. And when it comes to getting pressure on the quarterback, the 49ers I just didn't need any more help.

Speaker 2: 41:42

The 49ers are one of the best in the league at exactly at doing that.

Speaker 1: 41:46

And Trevor Lawrence, when he gets pressure on him, goes from a passer rating of one to one with a clean pocket down to 67.1 with a when he's under pressure. So makes all the difference in the world when you get pressure on Trevor Lawrence. One of the best things that 49ers do is get pressure on the quarterback. Book it 49ers.

Speaker 2: 42:12

You're taking the 49ers. The spread, I think it's three.

Speaker 1: 42:16

You know me, Alex.

Speaker 2: 42:18

You're just straight line.

Speaker 1: 42:20

Money line. I mean that's fair.

Speaker 2: 42:22

The spread's not that bad anyway, so I would take that too.

Speaker 2: 42:25

And yeah, as we mentioned the 49ers are coming off of three losses, going to thereby getting healthy. As you mentioned, we're getting Debal Samuel back. Christian McCaffrey should be fully healthy as he had been dealing with injuries with his oblique. Obviously, trent Williams will be more healthy and the addition to Chase Young cannot hurt the defensive line, which is already the best in the league. That hasn't been their problem, other than the bangles. They haven't given up more than 23 points, which is to the Rams, and other than that they haven't given up more than 17 points.

Speaker 2: 42:51

So I think mainly the problem has been offense, which, again, I think will be better with Debal Samuel when they have the full array of talent for Brock Purdy and, as you mentioned, when Trevor Lawrence is pressured, he is not the same quarterback and I think one of the big notes for the Jaguars this season is they've been able to pass the ball and they've been able to run the ball a good amount with ETN, which has allowed Trevor Lawrence to to more options and to be pressured less, as he's able to spread the ball around more to, you know, evan Ingram, ridley and Zay Jones, as well as Christian Kirk. So I definitely think that there will be more pressure. I don't think ETN will have as many gaps and run lanes as he's had lately. So I think that overall I probably would choose the 49ers. In this situation too. I would probably take the spread, but I understand Only take money lying in this situation. It's not my opinion.

Speaker 1: 43:42

So who am I to judge? I guess Also on the in terms of the Russian yards and stuff too. Not going to take any props because I don't do that anymore, but I will make notes about it. You know, food for thought, as my mom would say, is that they have a minus 20 disadvantage on the offensive line compared to defensive line when it comes to running the ball for the Jacksonville Jack wires. So if they're looking to move the ball, I mean it's not going to be by the passing offense.

Speaker 1: 44:21

So it's going to have to be by the running offense, but I don't know if that's going to be looking too well.

Speaker 2: 44:25

I don't have much confidence in that either. So, but again it could be one of those things where the Jaguar surprises, like when you were high on your bills and then they destroyed them and landed just crash and burned, yeah 49 is go on for that, that, that, that's problem.

Speaker 1: 44:43

Yeah, that that is probably the most concern.

Speaker 2: 44:46

I love it. It's a Seahawks fan but OK, that's fair.

Speaker 1: 44:52

But yeah, I mean, that's, that's really all, all the picks I got. I basically just covered the whole board there. But you know, I know I'm not doing any any player props for the time being that is. I think that that about does it. Do you have anything else Enough?

Speaker 2: 45:12

as we know, I think that's pretty much it. We said that this was going to be a shorter episode. Ended up being a little longer than we expected, but that's not a problem. So, as we mentioned, we are going to start having our weekly podcast on Wednesday. Get again just gives us more time between our podcast coming out and then the NFL weekends and things like that. So I think we'll be able to talk about the full array of the seat of the week and then also kind of be able to look forward a little bit for the upcoming weekend as well. So we're going to try that for a while here going forward. So, unless you have anything else that you wanted to get into, drew, no, a quick shout out to the Denver Museum.

Speaker 1: 45:47

Got this shirt here. It's the element of indecision. It's I don't know I am. So there you go.

Speaker 2: 45:55

Okay, okay, okay.

Speaker 2: 45:58

Next episode is going to come out in a few days. On Wednesday, we are going to be covering the NFL, so it'll be basically the last two weeks of the NFL as well as the last two weeks of the NBA, so make sure to be ready for that guy. Other than that, this has been the call your shot podcast with your host, alex Harrison Drew Moore. Thank you for listening everybody. As always, you can find our links or you can find us wherever you can find your podcast, whether it be on Spotify podcast app or anywhere else. We are also on YouTube and, for those of you watching on YouTube, make sure to check our links. At the bottom of the description for our social media is our Instagram and check out our Instagram. Make sure to give us as follow as well, so we'll post some pretty cool content there. So anything else, drew?

Speaker 1: 46:36

No, that's pretty much. It Make sure to like rate subscribe. You know, although the cliche things to say, one thing that actually helps the most is downloading the podcast. A lot of people don't know that, but that's one of the metrics that people look at the most when it comes to productivity of your podcast.

Speaker 2: 46:54

So Fair enough, so we will see you guys on Wednesday.

Speaker 1: 47:00

Peace.