NFL Week 11 Injury Updates, Player Breakdowns, and Strategic Analysis

In this episode, Alix Harris and Drew Moore discuss the latest injury news in the NFL, including Joe Burrow's wrist injury and its impact on the Bengals' playoff hopes. They also analyze the Ravens' offense without Mark Andrews and the Seahawks' fall from grace. The hosts recap the Browns vs. Steelers game and the Eagles vs. Chiefs game, highlighting the Chiefs' offensive struggles. They discuss the Vikings vs. Broncos game and the performance of Josh Dobbs. Finally, they preview the Thanksgiving Day games. In this part of the conversation, the hosts discuss their NFL game picks, including teasers and alternative money lines. So, sit back, grab a drink, and let's talk football!

Book Recommendations:
The Everything Guide to Sports Betting
by Josh Appelbaum
The Logic of Sports Betting
by Ed Miller, Matthew Davidow
Statistical Sports Models in Excel Vol. 1 & 2
by Andrew Mack
Sharp Sports Betting
by Stanford Wong

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

Welcome to the ColourShop Podcast, your weekly sports recap podcast, where we break down the hottest headlines, dissect the latest injuries and serve up our own hard hitting analysis of the past weekend sports. So that's not all. We're not just here to talk about the past, we're here to predict the future as well. On the ColourShop podcast, we boldly predict the outcomes of the upcoming week's games.

Speaker 2: 0:22

Hello everybody, thank you for listening. This is the ColourShop podcast, with your hosts, Alex Harris and Drew Moore. Today's episode we're going to recap some of the games that happened last week, as well as getting some NFL news and NFL injury updates and then previewing some of the Thanksgiving games that we have for tomorrow, as well as some of the games that we have this weekend, finishing up with the NBA. So getting started with some injury news. First, we do have Joe Burrow. That was confirmed that he was it torn ligaments in his wrist.

Speaker 1: 0:48

Yep, yeah, it was torn ligaments in his wrist and I mean, you could, you can really see it too, when like he tried to throw a sidewall.

Speaker 1: 0:57

Yeah, he's not able to grip the ball at all. I'm guessing it was probably something to do with his flexor tendons, because since he's not able to grip down like that, that's kind of a very common thing for that particular type of injury. Along with that, I mean that goes back to what we were saying last week and then the week before as well, to where these injury reports are just few and far in between and nobody really knows who's actually going through something. Nobody knows somebody's sick, nobody knows if somebody's got x, y and z going on, and not only that, it's, I mean from a betting standpoint.

Speaker 1: 1:33

Yeah, sure, that's one thing to where, like, the lines are going to move significantly if somebody's out or somebody's in. But then when it comes to the fans who are maybe going to a game for the first time trying to see their favorite player, and they go in and, okay, he's listed, as you know, probable, or he's listed, he's not even on the injury report. And then you go and see your favorite player and he's not even on the field, or he's listed as like, oh, he's doubtful for the game, and then he's out there playing and that's a game that you could have afforded to go to and ended up not having the time to switch around and end up making it to that game and I'm missing the game, and I mean especially with the NFL.

Speaker 2: 2:15

These tickets aren't cheap, so yeah, this injury did happen on Thursday night football with the Bengals facing against the Ravens. And as soon as it did happen then you know started getting the news reports about Joe borough walking off the tape, walking off the plane before the game in a cast. So something clearly was going on with his wrist or, as you are mentioning that before the game, and it kind of just ended up happening on the pass to Joe Mixon in the red zone. So very unfortunate injury. The Bengals did end up losing to the Ravens 20 to 34. Didn't seem like they are doing too much prior to the injury. It was somewhat of a competitive game, but at the time the Bengals actually took the lead 10 to seven, but then after that the Ravens ended up taking over and kind of winning decisively.

Speaker 2: 2:58

So this is kind of a weird thing because this was like the last hurrah that the Bengals kind of had in the host of making the playoffs. They really needed this game in order to at least squeak into the wild card. So now the fact that they have Joe borough out, for which is likely this season, they already have T Higgins hurt and Jake Browning is now going to be the guy Don't not have any hope or confidence for them making the playoffs. So were your thoughts on that and also in this game. We did have Mark Andrews get hurt. Originally it seemed like something with his hip and now they're saying it was a pretty severe ankle spraying. Originally they said that he was going to be out for the season. Now they're saying that there is a possibility that he can maybe return to the playoffs. But that's also a big blow for the Ravens as well.

Speaker 1: 3:36

Yeah, I mean, in terms of the Ravens, they're definitely going to miss Mark Andrews going into this week especially. I might, I might be obligated to take the Chargers, which is a super gross proposition from you there, but I mean losing your number one receiving target, especially how, how much, how much he means to the offensive. You've you kind of noticed that anytime he's out, whether that's last year, this year or whenever, their offense just kind of stagnates and they're not able to find the any open receivers because they're mainly just focusing on the other players now and they don't have a distraction. And Mark Andrews.

Speaker 1: 4:20

It's kind of similar to when Travis Kelsey goes out. You kind of see a similar thing where they're not able to get the offense going because you don't have your main guy there, the key cog in the wheel, moving things around and getting players open. So and and along with that they also have my boy, opj, who went down with his shoulder injury as well. So it's just another receiver that's going to be limited or potentially out for Lamar Jackson. But I mean this is not a new thing for Lamar Jackson as he always seems to have somebody out for him and he always seems to be playing with limited wide receivers as well too. So it's kind of a it's anybody's best guess on how well the offense is going to do, especially with the new regime, not really being familiar with it, and how that's going to play out this upcoming week against the Chargers.

Speaker 2: 5:12

Yeah, mark Andrews has always been kind of the safety bank, for Lamar Jackson has been the model of consistency that he's had from a tight in perspective. Isaiah likely, who is the backup Titan, is a very athletic young player so he has kind of filled in formably when he's when Mark Andrews has been out. But as you mentioned Odell I don't know about former he has, he has. He had a couple games last season.

Speaker 1: 5:33

I picked him up in fantasy you know saying when he was playing this week or this year, he was not doing anything at all.

Speaker 2: 5:37

That's true this last game that he kind of filled in as well as being a backup.

Speaker 2: 5:41

Overall he has not been all that great, but now he is going to be, you know, the number one tight end. And, as you mentioned, Odell Beckham, who's actually been playing very well over the past few games and even had over 100 yards of this game, even though it was limited receptions, is dealing with shoulder injury and stuff like that. This may be a big moment for Zay flowers to get even more volume, the rookie that's been playing very well for them this season. But overall, the Ravens have just been able to over dominate teams for the most part. You know this is a bounce back when coming off the loss to the Browns, leading the rush, leading the league in Russian and just being able to lean on their defense as well. So it's being a great offense, great defense and they have a great Russian attack. So I think they're a very dangerous team within the AFC and probably would be, after the chief's loss, the best team in the AFC right now, I'd have to say.

Speaker 1: 6:28

Yeah. And then when it comes to our boy, Jake Browning from the University of Washington, Yep, so I mean, he was great at UW, obviously, but when it comes to the NFL, you know, like the reason he was undrafted and you know he has a career of 57% completion percentage, so got to touch down the game.

Speaker 2: 6:57

It's a little garbage time All right?

Speaker 1: 7:00

Well, you know, so do do with that which you will.

Speaker 2: 7:04

Jake.

Speaker 1: 7:05

Browning is I don't think that this is going to end very well for the Bengals. And I mean you can kind of see the defeat on the players faces on the Bengals as soon as Joe Verro went down, Jamar Chase was pissed off, Joe Mixon's mad, Like it just kind of sank the whole season and the players know what's going on too, Like unlike where it's like the Jets or the Browns, where their defense can kind of carry them and, okay, our offense sucks. But you know, at least our defense is rock solid and like they're keeping us in the game, giving us a chance to win, and I, hmm, Jake Browning, I'm sorry but you are not the answer, my good sir.

Speaker 2: 7:48

So yeah, so now kind of just seems that the Bengals are going to finish mediocre, probably have a some somewhat close to a 500 record, maybe a game above. Give them a little. Not exactly sure. They play the Steelers this upcoming week, so even without Joe Barrow they're probably going to have pretty similar offenses at this point, the way the Steelers are looking. But the thing about the Steelers is they have a great defense that they've been leaning on all season and know how to scrap out these nasty ugly wins. So that's the game that they kind of want to play into, not the Bengals. So we're going to have to see when it comes to that.

Speaker 2: 8:20

Some additional injury news that we do have. We have Gino Smith, who did get hurt, unfortunately, in the Rams game. We were beating the Rams and it seemed like we had everything in control, and then Gino gets hurt and then we just, you know, forget how to move the ball in the second half, and then that's just the combination to be able to lose on a game missing field goal and very unfortunate and very sad. So Gino Smith is dealing with an elbow injury. Drew Lock did fill in for him in the little bit that he was out in the third and fourth quarter and it did not look great at all.

Speaker 2: 8:51

So Gino did come back in and tried to leave the game when he drive, but ultimately, as we mentioned, jason Myers did miss the field goal. I think it was about a 40 or 50 yard field goal. To end, we had to lose in the game 16 to 17. So what are your thoughts on that? Do you think that Gino will be okay to play this week? They have said that he is probable to play after being questionable all week, and then Kenneth Walker has already been deemed out, so Sharpenay is going to be the guy.

Speaker 1: 9:17

Yeah, I mean, I did warn you when you were playing this game, didn't I? I?

Speaker 2: 9:22

tried to tell you I'd have no idea. You're talking about.

Speaker 1: 9:26

Okay, yeah, I mean, this is one of those games to. This is a market dynamics kind of game where they it flipped from the dog to the favorites the Rams did that is, and just a bunch of public money was coming in on on Seattle and then professional money was able to flip that line all the way over to the Rams being the favorite. And this is another example of why you always take the money line on the short favorites, or even on on short dogs as well. The odds and up hang out better in terms of you end up winning more often than you would. If you were to lay like the minus two, which it ended up closing at, you would have lost. That bet for the Rams versus playing the money line you would have won.

Speaker 1: 10:13

Yeah, anyways, in terms of Gino Smith, I mean he's turning back into a pumpkin, I think you know over the past few weeks he's he's kind of regressed quite a bit, and not that teams are, you know, figuring them out or whatever, but it's he's, he's. Pete Carroll is doing enough to mask his not problems, but his.

Speaker 1: 10:43

Yeah, flaws and and now that you know we're getting deeper in the season not that teams are figuring him out or anything, but the luck factor is kind of running out on on Gino, and he's getting up there, like we talked about before. His turnover, where he plays, is up there as well too, and this is kind of one of those things that typically always regressed back to the mean, and we're seeing that now with your boy, gino.

Speaker 2: 11:06

So not again, he's not easy, he's no Kenny.

Speaker 1: 11:10

Pickett. But you know, he's also exactly, he's not. He's not like Patrick Mahomes, which I mean right now might not even sound that great either, but yeah it's definitely been very mediocre.

Speaker 2: 11:24

It was playing solidly for us. As we mentioned, the Rams game did get up to a double digit lead and then we kind of just ran into a wall, as we are used to, and the Rams were able to walk us down and then, once Gino kind of went out, we weren't able to really get any momentum. As we've mentioned in the past, the Seahawks have a gauntlet coming up 49ers tomorrow, thanksgiving game, scary Cowboys. Week after that scary 49ers. Again the week after that, scary Eagles after that scary. So it's not looking too great for the Seahawks that are now sitting at six and four, but you know there's always going to be playing the.

Speaker 1: 12:03

Are you done playing the Seahawks?

Speaker 2: 12:06

Hey, they're two. Well, actually, no, I'm two and two because I won the first two and then we lost the last two. So for the yeah, for the next foreseeable future, I'm probably we play the Titans in week 15. That looks like a nice game to, you know, possibly get in on in about five weeks. But yeah, I don't agree with any other injury news that you wanted to get into. We additionally did have Aaron Jones, who had a MCL injury, so he is Lynn listed as out A J Dylan's going to be the guy, even though he's already kind of dealing with his own injury. Kyron Williams is supposed to be back this week and Cooper Cup is questionable as he suffered an ankle injury and the Seahawks game as well.

Speaker 1: 12:40

So Yep, I mean, well see, yeah, that means how you asked me if I had any other injury news that I wanted to get into. Then you proceeded to state all the others. I think that'll do it.

Speaker 2: 12:53

You're welcome, that'll do it.

Speaker 1: 12:56

Yeah, I mean one of the one of the things that I'll touch on later on in the show is all those packer injuries from basically their whole team is on IR at this point, or it just at least on the entry report, and especially on their defensive end too. You got Campbell, you have Ford, you have Jair Alexander. I mean those are like your three major, three different levels and three major players that you have that you're going to be missing in this game, or at least they're questionable but likely to missed, and I mean I I just don't see how this is going to end well at all for the, the packers. So but I digress. Yeah, I mean that those are the major injuries that that happened over the over the past week and stuff. But in terms of recapping games, I do have a couple that I would like to touch on, if that's right with you, sir.

Speaker 2: 14:02

Let's, let's hear them.

Speaker 1: 14:04

Alrighty. So, first and foremost, our our amazing total that we had in the Cleveland Browns and the Steelers game, the rock fight that was 1950s football.

Speaker 1: 14:18

Yep, exactly so the just. It ended just about how everybody else thought it would end, with basically the Steelers getting one super long play, but this time not having it end up working out in their favor because they didn't get two defensive touchdowns like they did last time, because that's the only way that they're often seems to be able to score. And, thankfully for them, they are now getting rid of Matt Canada because, thank God, but DTR did just enough to not be a nuisance to the team, but he was also. He also had a 54.9% passer rating, so I guess not a percent, but pass your rating in general. Nevertheless ended up with 165 yards, and which is basically three point.

Speaker 1: 15:11

For what?

Speaker 2: 15:12

43 passing attempts, 165 yards.

Speaker 1: 15:15

Yeah, 3.8 yards per attempt. So I mean, and Kenny Pickett had 3.8 yards per attempt but only had 28 passing attempts as well, so I mean interesting thing too, found this stat. This is prayer pro football focus Kenny Pickett has now has the lowest TD ratio in the NFN. Oh, my bad, hold on. Let me run that back. Kenny Pickett now has the lowest TD rate in NFL history of 315 quarterbacks that have attempted at least 500 passes, and he is the only player to be under 2%.

Speaker 2: 16:00

So and his team has a winning record in this time in the NFL, that is somehow some way an anomaly. That is crazy and Danny.

Speaker 1: 16:08

DeVito has just as many touchdowns as him too. So I mean, yeah, this game, this game was, was gross, but we did see Jaylen Warren kind of pop off a little bit here. However, it was just the the one 74 yard run that he had. Yeah, even I mean, other than that they're the offense just again stagnant as out, as ever as ever, and Najee Harris still can't do anything productive Like do you think it's more of the?

Speaker 2: 16:47

because they've always said, like, even throughout the preseason, when Jaylen Warren was doing well, and even early in the season, you know, najee is the guy and even though their workloads have been similar, as of late they Najee still getting slightly more volume, like. Because it kind of reminds me of like the Charger situation a few years back where you know Austin Neckler was kind of like the backup, that was kind of like the electricity guy and stuff like that, but then you had Melvin Gordon who was a solid back for a long time and they charges were so slow to basically be like okay, this is it, we're finally going to give the reins to Austin Neckler. This is kind of like the same situation Jaylen Warren is Austin Neckler and Najee is Melvin Gordon, even though Najee's only had one good season Really and that was when Ben Roffensberger decided to throw him the ball 70 plus times. So I don't know.

Speaker 1: 17:32

Yeah, I think it's also.

Speaker 1: 17:33

Yeah, I think it's also like a draft capital thing too.

Speaker 1: 17:37

Like you take Najee with a higher draft pick and stuff and you have Jaylen Warren coming in who I mean basically was off the streets and Najee's a guy that they've had in the system and he's not a bad running back, like he's played well.

Speaker 1: 17:55

But it's just been the concept that they've had with Matt Canada that hasn't been able to that they haven't been able to get any productive kind of runs for him, because whenever they're running outside the tackles they're they're only doing that with with Jaylen Warren, whereas whenever they run with Najee Harris, we have this big six, one guy let's just up the middle. No outside runs, no, no kind of different concepts, no tosses, barely any screen passes, like there's nothing for him to be a playmaker. So you, you get these two divides and it makes Najee look a lot worse than what he actually is. But in terms of the types of plays that he's getting, I mean he's not obviously not doing great, but at the same time he's not being set up for success and that's Matt Canada's fault. Now, when they're switching over to I believe it's their wide receiver coach or something like that yeah, no quarterback coach, I don't know.

Speaker 1: 18:52

So basically somebody is a wide receiver. Basically, it's somebody, somebody who's never called plays before, so right I mean all right yeah, so like will it get better? Maybe hopefully this guy's played like Madden at some point in his life and he has like some concept.

Speaker 2: 19:09

That's worse.

Speaker 1: 19:10

I mean remember Jeff Saturday.

Speaker 2: 19:14

I guess everybody thought he was the chosen one and then went a little more and got fired.

Speaker 1: 19:23

So, exactly, so fair enough, yeah. Yeah, I think that while Najee hasn't, you know, been playing good at all, he has been better than what they portrayed him as because of the play calls that he's been in and the schemes that he's been running.

Speaker 2: 19:43

So, Fair enough. Fair enough, the Steelers still are six and four and the Browns go to seven and three, as they are now two and over the past AFC South or North games. So one of the games I want to get into obviously is the most recent one. We've already touched on the Bengals Ravens and the Seahawks Rams game was the Eagles Chiefs games, for Monday Night Football Ended up being a very weird game, a Super Bowl rematch.

Speaker 2: 20:07

The Eagles did not look great in the first half. They had about 73 yards of total offense in the first half and most of that was our 78 yards and most of that came on the touchdown drive that they did have Jill and hers through a pick. They kind of look very stagnant. The Chiefs defense looked elite and the Chiefs look like they're taking full control, as they were up by 10 points going into half time. And then that is basically where the table started to turn a little bit. The Eagles scored, coming out of half time and then the Chiefs look bound to score as well, and then Travis Kelsey ended up basically getting stripped. The ball got punched out in the red zone, I believe, and basically that's where the times began to turn.

Speaker 2: 20:42

It kind of goes to show like the Chiefs have been a very good team. Obviously, both of us had them in our top five, but they obviously just don't look that great on offense and I didn't even know this. But like they were, they are the worst second half scoring team in the NFL and it went to show, you know, they had a great offense. It went to show, you know, they had opportunities to seal this game. They could have been up by two plus touchdowns with Travis Kelsey if they would have capitalized on that touchdown drive.

Speaker 2: 21:11

Patrick Mahoney is also through a pick and MBS dropped a wide open touchdown pass opportunity for them and then, when they were trying to go on the game when he drive, justin Watson dropped basically the pass on like the fourth and 25 that he probably should have caught. So what were your thoughts on this game? Does it really change your mindset when it comes to the Chiefs and Eagles? The Eagles were my number one team last week and, like I said, they didn't play that great of competition. Obviously, I think the Cowboys are good, but the Dolphins were the only other team that they had beaten. That, I would say, is a good team, but they just find a way to win these kind of close games and, even though their defense isn't great, when they absolutely need to, they have been able to get stops.

Speaker 1: 21:50

Yeah, I mean I still have confidence in the Chiefs. Am I concerned? Absolutely? Because this is one of those things where it's like, okay, you know the Chiefs like they'll figure it out, they'll figure out an offense, like they always do, right. And then, and then they go into the buy and you're like, okay, well, they're going into the buy, they'll figure out the offense, because you know they always do. And then you come out of the buy and they're like they'll fix the offense because they always do 21 against the Dolphins, that's it.

Speaker 2: 22:20

17 against the Eagles, I mean.

Speaker 1: 22:23

Now, that being said, they do have a very favorable schedule coming up, as they have the Raiders, the Packers, the Bills, the Patriots, the Raiders, the Bengals, and then the Chargers, so like not exactly the gauntlet that the Eagles have to go through whereas they're going to have to face the Seahawks. Seahawks, their season's done, Washed Okay. But yeah, the Eagles, they got to go through the Bills, 49ers, Cowboys, Seahawks, easy win the Giants.

Speaker 2: 22:58

Arizona and then the Giants again.

Speaker 1: 23:00

So I mean the back half of the schedule there is a little bit lighter. But I mean that first little section against the Bills 49ers, cowboys and I mean I guess the Seahawks is going to be a little bit tougher. So yeah, I mean it's. It doesn't help when you have like Mahomes is making the throws, you know, yeah, it's a lot of drop passes by the receivers Chesa the most drops in the NFL?

Speaker 1: 23:29

Yep, exactly. And so I mean you can only do so much of your Mahomes Now, that being said, he also has had quite a bit of turnover, where he plays which is very uncharacteristic of him from what we've seen in the past like you know, five years or so from him but at the same time he's, for example, on the fourth downplay, like fourth in 24 or whatever it was where he's scrambling out and then he's able to make that like throw it on a dime to the receiver right through his hands Right through Justin Watson's hands.

Speaker 1: 24:06

Sorry, I just missed it. I'm a wide receiver that can't catch. It's some popcorn, you know Exactly. So I mean.

Speaker 2: 24:15

I don't know. It's MBS dropping a 40 yard bomb and with the turnover worthy plays with Patrick Mahomes. Do you feel like that's more of a product of you know he's just just not having his best season or it's the fact that he's, you know, the second season, removed from not having Tyree kill, losing the offensive coordinator, eric B and me even though everybody would always say that Andy recall the plays Eric B and me has clearly played a very important role for them and is actually, you know, kind of changed life from an offensive perspective for the commanders Just the and, you know, travis Kelsey playing through injury just an accumulation of all those things. He's just maybe trying to do too much. Or are you thinking something?

Speaker 1: 24:48

else. Yeah, it's definitely that he's trying to do too much and he's trying to force the ball into, into areas where he normally wouldn't have to, because Tyree kill would take the top off the defense or he'd have. He'd at least have like one solid receiver that would.

Speaker 2: 25:03

That's what I feel. Like he and juju Like I, I feel like they should kept juju.

Speaker 1: 25:08

Yeah. And so I mean I don't know why they I don't just have Rishi Rice as as like their main guy, because he seems like the best receiver that they have, whereas Watson is getting targets and dropping all kinds of passes. Tony's dropping passes, you can't even throw him the ball anymore. And Sky Moore, who was supposed to break out this year, he's on the back of a milk carton. So I don't even know, I don't even know, like why what they're doing on offense anymore and, like we said, thought they were going to figure it out by at the end of the, by week, but they clearly have not. And when I mean props to props to the Eagles too for shutting down the, the chiefs in the second half.

Speaker 1: 25:53

But at the same time, you know, the chiefs have to be, have, they have to play better in the second half of games, because that's ultimately where you're going to win games and lose games. Is in that? I believe it was not Joe Montana. What am I saying, john Madden? That that would always say if you, if you can win the middle eight, then you'll win the game. So that's the final final, the middle Hold on, that's the end of the second quarter and the start of the third quarter. So that's like the that's known to be at the middle eight and you want to win, win those two quarters, and you basically win the game most more often than not, if you're able to play well between those two quarters, cause that's the momentum going into the half and then also momentum carrying out of the half as well too.

Speaker 2: 26:45

But yeah, yeah, I mean, I still have confidence in the chiefs. I do. You know they always end up figuring it out. I still think that they are an all eight team and this I mean the Eagles only scored 21 points. The chiefs have been able to hold teams and, again, have had a very good defense this season and we've talked a lot more about the chiefs because I feel like this is a game that the like, if I had to say, I think the chiefs lost this more than the Eagles.

Speaker 2: 27:05

One credit to the Eagles they did make a double-dish comeback, coming back from 10 points. And you know Jalen hurts. After the very slow start to the first half, with the turnover he kind of really got things going, had a bomb to Devontae Smith and they ended up running for that. Basically what ended up being the game when he touched down and, prior to that, coming out of the second half, ended up having basically a 10 yard scramble touchdown. So it's just like with the Eagles even when they're struggling, I just feel that they have so many weapons offensively. So obviously if I had to choose one, I would choose Patrick Mahomes over Jalen hurts. But when it comes to weapons, even though Travis Gels is probably the best player Devontae Smith, aj Brown, dallas Goddard eventually is going to be returning, and then you also have, yeah and you have. So I just think the way of weapons that Jalen hurts has, along with the mobility that they have with the push, push, and they just have so many ways to beat you, and I mean they've been proven in every single weekend.

Speaker 2: 28:02

Again, like again, they were just one bad drive away from potentially being two and no against the Jets, but, as you mentioned last week, they are, you know, only one or two plays from probably being Seven, and three as well. They could have lost this game, they could have lost to the Eagles, they could have lost to the commanders, but they end up pulling out most of these wins. So we're there. Any other games this week that you wanted to get into? Or this last?

Speaker 1: 28:25

week. Um, I mean just briefly the this here, this here Minnesota game against Denver Mm-hmm.

Speaker 2: 28:37

So are you happy with the result drew? Because I know you hate Josh jobs now.

Speaker 1: 28:42

I don't hate him, the pastor not.

Speaker 2: 28:49

Yeah, the as what NASA called him.

Speaker 1: 28:55

I mean like it's, it's, it's like, it's like what I was saying last week with the, with the, with the Pittsburgh Steelers. They can't keep getting away with this Because he's he's playing okay, he's playing, he's playing okay and he's playing a lot better than what he was doing while he was in Arizona. When he was in Arizona, he had a PFF grade of 62.1, or actually sorry, looking at the wrong one, that was the offense. Oh, when he was in Arizona, he actually had a pff grade of 55.3.

Speaker 1: 29:34

Um and now, when he's in Minnesota, he has a 71.4 pff grade. Like I mean, now, this is this is one of the reasons why I think that we're gonna be his name head coach for Minnesota.

Speaker 2: 29:53

Oh, yeah, now it's kind of good, not me, you think, go ahead with this, I'll look at it, okay.

Speaker 1: 29:58

Anyways, yep, anyways. So this is why I think that he should be the Coach of the year, or at least in the conversation, if not the front runner yeah thank you.

Speaker 1: 30:10

Kevin O'Connell should be one of the front runners for coach of the year.

Speaker 1: 30:14

If not, then he should ultimately win the coach of the year if they're able to make it to the playoffs, I think, because the turnaround that he's able to have with Josh Dobbs Well, he was playing very well in a couple games with Arizona he's now has a three game sample size where I guess maybe two and a half game sample size where he has played at a high enough level to be Able to help the team win these games or at least stay in the game and not be a detriment to the team and give them a chance to win.

Speaker 1: 30:47

Obviously he's not, you know Kirk Cousins and lighting up the the scoreboard with all of these yards and Touchdowns and stuff like that, but I mean, the advantage that he gives you on the ground is second to none. And then also he's actually been making a lot better decisions than he was previously playing in Arizona as well too. So I'm pretty credit to Kevin O'Connell for scheming up plays for his quarterback, unlike Matt Canada, who basically Skeens up plays for his quarterback to have the hardest throws possible. One interesting thing, too, that I heard about Pittsburgh is that they throw outside the numbers more than any other team in the league, and that is typically the hardest pass to throw, because you're, you have a defender on the outside hip of the receiver and then you also have the sideline there.

Speaker 1: 31:42

All right, just trying to Exactly, I'm just trying to, like pinpoint, make these pinpoint passes with the, with a quarterback that does not have pinpoint pass After you want Kenny to fit in the bread basket.

Speaker 2: 31:53

That's not the best thing.

Speaker 1: 31:56

Exactly, and so, like, the schemes that they're running for Josh Dabs have been very successful for him, and I mean, when they get Justin Jefferson back to, that's gonna elevate his game and make his life a lot easier as well too. So you know credit where credit's due. He's there, he's doing it.

Speaker 2: 32:17

Yeah, I think the Vikings haven't played very well. They did end up losing this game 20 to 21. And as much as we talk about, you know, kevin O'Connell and the Vikings, in the turnaround that they've made, the Broncos very quietly have been making their own turn around the AFC to a start one and five Now are on a four game win streak with wins against the Vikings, with wins against the chiefs as well. So, you know, kudos to your former boy, you know, sean Payton, and my former boy, russell Wilson. They've actually had a major turnaround and things of that nature. For the Broncos. That offense actually looks solid, they actually kind of seem to have a formula and an identity and the defense has been playing much better, as of late as well.

Speaker 2: 32:55

It kind of did have some questionable Situations in this game. We had a turnover and then we kind of had like a play. I don't know if it was a fumble or ended up being a turnover. Basically, joshua Dobbs got like lit up and the ball ended up one in the air and people are saying that it should have been a, should have been a personal foul for unnecessary roughness, but it never got called. So then after the review, they're like you know, after you know the game's over and stuff you did the ref view, they came out there like that probably should have been a penalty. So the Vikings were in firm control of this game and then that kind of ended up being a major turnaround. I believe it was in the third quarter for them and the Broncos ended up walking it down. I don't understand. I mean, russ has been doing it when he was in Seattle for a long time but making on the basically the touchdown winning drive, basically just thrown it up and Cortland Sutton, who is.

Speaker 2: 33:38

Basically receivers in. He's reading and read some touchdowns and is only behind Tyree Kill when it comes to Touchdown from a wide receiver. So I mean he's been doing doing it. You know people had high expectations for him last year when Russ came because they thought, oh, he could be the DK Mac afro, whatever the case may be. And then they kind of tempered their expectations this season when Sean Payton came in. But then they kind of raised again people like, oh, we're gonna play them in the Mike Thomas role and things of that nature. So I mean he hasn't necessarily got a lot of volume but it's been very consistent and it's basically the only player that Russell Wilson has had like a consistent rapport with.

Speaker 2: 34:11

Jerry Judy's been up and down that situation. I don't know if he's ever gonna recover from the Steve Smith situation. That was kind of gross. It kind of kind of got destroyed but the wrong cause been looking good down a four game win streak, five and five. Don't think that they're gonna be in the playoffs. I just think that when you dig yourself into a one and five hole it's just very hard to climb out of, and especially in the AFC and in their division. But I mean it has been a very nice turn around for them.

Speaker 1: 34:33

Absolutely, and I mean, this is one of those things to where, well, for one, I really do hope they stop winning games because of I bet that I have on the other, I think it was, I think it was at. Eight and a half, if I remember correctly.

Speaker 2: 34:52

Oh, wow, I might have a seven and a half.

Speaker 1: 34:55

It was one of those two. I don't remember what it was, but I remember I'd Adamately said no more than seven, and now they're. They're creeping. Exactly that's the problem. Yeah, this was. This was another one of those games to where, since we're doing this, this show, early on on Wednesday, now we're gonna be having some late additions to our, to our call your shot props, and those will be posted. Maybe we'll start a discord. I want you can post them in there or something I don't know I'll be cool, I'll post them somewhere.

Speaker 2: 35:30

Yeah, yeah, maybe we'll do that post in there.

Speaker 1: 35:33

That way there's, you know, evidence that we did say it and that we did call it, and everything like that. And then, that way, if you want to tune in to see which games we're going with, and Towards the end of the week, then those are gonna be our locked in plays. Additionally, we're also going to Give ourselves the option to be like okay, this is our play, actually, you know what? No, if we're calling it, we're locking it in, unless, of course, like you know, somebody dies.

Speaker 2: 36:08

Jackson dislocated his arm.

Speaker 1: 36:11

Something like that happens then obviously. But Other than that, because I'm more than likely gonna try and put these in when we, when the market, shows that we're getting the best value possible on on these games. So when it comes to dogs, you kind of want to bet dogs later in the week, depending on what the public sentiment of the game is going to be. For instance, like if you were on the I don't know the commanders this week, you would want to wait until right before the game to bet the commanders because the public is going to be all over backing Dallas in this spot and then so you're gonna get a better line and then you're able to have a better auto winning that bet.

Speaker 2: 36:52

So that's fair enough. Moving on to games this week, so we do have three games tomorrow for Thanksgiving. They are very Heavy favorite at games. It looks like a lot of mismatches. So we have Packers, lions, commanders cowboys and 49er Seahawks. Yeah, I don't want to go against 49ers this week. True, I'm not gonna lose. It's very unfortunate Situations scheduling for us. You want to get any of those games or any other games throughout this weekend. We have a Friday night or Friday night game, dolphins Jets or any of the Sunday game matchups that you want to get into.

Speaker 1: 37:29

Yeah, I have a few that I want to get into, but you can go first, because I need to plug in my laptop here. So Okay.

Speaker 2: 37:36

So if we were gonna get into a call, a shot game, that one of the first ones that I would have for this upcoming Week, even though I understand the injuries would still be the Ravens over the Chargers. Currently, the line is Favoring the Ravens by three and a half, so be Ravens minus three and a half that you're.

Speaker 2: 37:52

You're Chargers came off of a tough loss against the Packers, who we did just say have nobody on their team as everybody is on IR or hurt. Ravens are gonna be playing without Mark Andrews. Odell is questionable, but I just think that the Ravens are a much better team. We're gonna be able to take control of this game. The Chargers they're I don't know what's going on with their defense man in you kind of just disappeared. I Would just have confidence of the Ravens, confidence, lamar Jackson. They're rushing attack, which has been number one in the league, and to take control of the game From a time management, time clock perspective. So I don't necessarily know if they're gonna blow out the rate or blow out the Chargers, but I do feel that they're gonna be able to get to a solid lead, at least attached down to be able to hold it Just with their ability for time management, rushing attack, things of that nature going on long drive. So that would be my pick.

Speaker 1: 38:44

Hmm, that's interesting.

Speaker 2: 38:47

Justin Herbert now, or are you favoring the Chargers?

Speaker 1: 38:51

Well see, so this this week is gonna be a, like I said before, it's gonna be a market dynamics kind of game. All right week. I should say, and I mean this is. This is one of the most public plays. We talked about this last week too. Mr Harris, I ended up on my own, on my own merit. I bet on the, on the Packers, because of how much the public play it was.

Speaker 2: 39:15

I.

Speaker 1: 39:16

Try to warn you. You don't want to listen, so I'm warning you today, if, if you, it's not too late to back out of this bet.

Speaker 2: 39:27

No, you want to make a bet on this, like since you talked about the public play and stuff, so you can just, you know, you can put your money on the Chargers and Justin Herbert beaten the Lamar Jackson. But I'm not going to. So we could do a Friendly bet here, dinner bet.

Speaker 1: 39:53

See, this is my thing. This is my thing here. So 77% of the bets are on the Ravens right now mm-hmm and.

Speaker 1: 40:02

The line's not moving at all, which tells me that there the bet split right now is 23% of the bets on the Chargers, 43% of the handle is on the Chargers, which is a nice bet split that you have there, causing the line not to move at all, to have a line freeze, which is basically sharp money coming in on the Chargers Saying that this, this line is either good or it should be lower, outweighing the public bets. You Know three and a half.

Speaker 2: 40:40

What is your first call your shot game?

Speaker 1: 40:43

So, again, sticking true to the market dynamics, actually, well, we're gonna, we're gonna do, we're gonna do a little little one-two. Skip to my Lou action here so. Since I don't, I don't want to lay the eight points with the Lions here. What I'm gonna do instead is do a a teaser.

Speaker 2: 41:05

Which basically?

Speaker 1: 41:06

your money line, yeah, basically. So teasers basically a way to Take off six points on whatever spread or add six points to whatever spread that you want, and you have to Typically pick two teams. You can pick up to, like I don't know, seven teams or whatever. Typically the most common one is a two-team teaser. You want to do tease up teams from our tees down teams seven and a half, or you want to tease up teams at two and a half and that that's basically that where you get through those key numbers of seven and three as well. So we are going to take the 49ers, tease those, tease them down six points down to minus one and then pair that with the lions from eight down to minus two. Hopefully we can have that line be at. I Get down to one and a half because I hate pushing anything.

Speaker 2: 42:07

Pause, so you take two teams that have our heavy favorite it and parlay them together to bring down the spread to near money line.

Speaker 1: 42:17

Yep, exactly, and then that typically has been brought down to about minus 120. It used to be minus 110 and it typically it was a lot more profitable, but now it's that.

Speaker 2: 42:30

I don't give a damn. We're winning this game. See, I was winning this game.

Speaker 1: 42:35

You want dinner. Bet on that. No, okay, okay. And then another thing along with that, too, is you don't want to play. You don't want to do any of these teasers with totals that are higher Than 47 and a half, and the Lions game is is wavering on that line right there. That's just mainly because of a lot of variants. That happens with the higher scoring games and lower possibility of those scores being closer together. So, that being said, those are my or that's my first one. Right there is teasing down those two teams. Do you have another one?

Speaker 2: 43:16

No, the Lions was going to be my second pick. I was gonna do an alternative money line too. I was gonna do a parlay. I was just gonna do like four and a half or five for alternative money line I. I genuinely think that they can blow out the Packers. But you know it, when we get those heavy spreads now, Uh, you said what I said.

Speaker 1: 43:34

Lay it. Lay the points eight, no.

Speaker 2: 43:41

Once you sit nearing double digits, like we talked about it, like with I think it was like the Cowboys Versus, was it the Panthers at the time of something like that. Like I understand that, but like you know, it kind of just feels rude when you start near these double digits and I yeah, the Lions under Dan Campbell are 11 and 3 ATS and divisional games.

Speaker 2: 44:04

Oh yeah, they're my team. That's why Dan Campbell was my coach of the year Preseason pick. I think that they have been playing great and now they basically have their full array of weapons with Montgomery and Gibbs, along with Almond raw, and I might have some player props into that later. But you know, you already have it. You know with the parlay and stuff like that, so I don't need to do that full a, I'm just gonna do that alternative money line four and a half five. Yeah, so go ahead and say your second one.

Speaker 1: 44:32

Side note backing the public has been profitable on Thanksgiving in terms of favorites, Uh. So there you go If you want to do that. Alex the. Lions.

Speaker 2: 44:45

I Mean I am choosing the Lions.

Speaker 1: 44:48

I'm saying lay the points. No, you lay the points you know I'm laying the points.

Speaker 2: 45:01

So I you know one done on that, commander Cowboys game you.

Speaker 1: 45:07

That's gross. The only way I could lean in this game is towards the commanders, and I want nothing to do with the commanders.

Speaker 2: 45:16

So yeah, if I would have choose one, I would take the commanders with the points, just because you know. Their offense actually is formidable. Sam Howe sometimes wakes up and think he is him.

Speaker 1: 45:26

So Like it's oh my god, Also. How did? How did they let any DeVito towards them like that?

Speaker 2: 45:36

Bro, that was making me mad. Like I had no Horse in the race bell, it's just like I think I had. Oh no, it was because I had the commander's defense against the Giants, something like that in fantasy. I was like, bro, what is happening? Like I don't understand. Like any veto out here now with more touchdown passes, as you mentioned, the king picket and Zach Wilson, so mm-hmm. There you go. Who is?

Speaker 1: 45:55

now benched. But the last, last game that the Cowboys played against the commanders, the commanders won 2626 Yep.

Speaker 2: 46:07

I'm just saying that's because also kind of like the bills.

Speaker 1: 46:11

Yeah, but also in 2001 there was a little bit of a history of a 56 to 14 game. So Do with that what you will, and also, I believe, the Eagles last year too, or something like that were close. I mean, they play them tough in a division game, so yeah, the Remember correctly the Cowboys are like one and eleven on Thanksgiving games a TS. So Am I convincing? You yet no.

Speaker 2: 46:44

No, I'm just gonna watch. See you lamb have like a million yards.

Speaker 1: 46:49

Okay, okay. So, and then also another game that I am looking at here. That's so gross. I'm not doing that, I, I'm looking. I was looking at the at the Jets.

Speaker 2: 47:03

But I told, myself.

Speaker 1: 47:05

I told myself I'm not, I can't know.

Speaker 2: 47:08

But I will be in. Jack Wilson got benched. That's crazy.

Speaker 1: 47:11

Yeah, well, back up, he's third.

Speaker 2: 47:14

They said no, you're not even playing, you're the emergency backup quarterback due to injury. I'm like bro, that's, that's that's rude.

Speaker 1: 47:22

Yeah, and so I. I got to go with the over in that game, though, because, for one the the reason why I was looking at the jets but I told myself never playing with the Jets again is the line has moved about three points or so, and You're telling me that there's a three-point difference between Zach Wilson and anybody. No, like Tim Boyle is not good by any means, but he's he's not three points better than Zach Wilson, that being, said a Total of 41 and a dolphins game is way too low, especially for a team that's averaging 30 points a game.

Speaker 1: 48:06

It's kind of rude to assume that the Jets are maybe gonna get 10 points and.

Speaker 1: 48:13

I, I mean, if anything, the, the, the, what can they do? Their name, the dolphins that are gonna get more points than what they've been averaging here, because there's no way they, the Jets, run man off and man defense just about more, just about as much as the next team. And, and the one thing that you cannot do against a super speedy team is man defense, because you're just basically in a track meet the whole game. That does not bode well for anybody going against the dolphins. Even though Devon, a Chan, a Chan, whatever his name is, even though he's gonna be out, they still have full complement of wide receivers and there's still nobody in the world that can stop Tyreek Hill. So, that being said, I don't care if you have sauce gardener on them, you're not slowing them down and this game is not going to end well for the, the Jets. That being said, I'm still not taking any dog in this fight, but I will Take the over in this game.

Speaker 2: 49:27

Yeah, I mean Congratulations. You have your first start of the year with Boyle as the starting quarterback and you get to play the dolphins, so that's gonna be fun. You mean there's a great, but they're gonna get ran up.

Speaker 1: 49:37

So well, they're the dolphins. Their defense is also getting a lot healthier too, and they're getting a lot of key pieces back. That's gonna be even more detrimental for this, this offense, and it's the first Black Friday game and it's gonna be an absolute bloodbath. So I mean, they're gonna be giving out touchdowns at a discounted price in this game and it's it's gonna be Two for one special.

Speaker 2: 50:05

Fair enough. Those were my. I also my two Clash out game. So if you have any more, let me know, otherwise I have a player problem.

Speaker 1: 50:12

So yes, I have two, actually have three more, yep, you know me. So Again with the, the theme of the week market dynamics. So, danny DeVito, my boy, yep, you know, with the, the celebration to you know, I'm saying I did.

Speaker 1: 50:42

They're really laying. They're really laying into that, but okay, anyways. So Danny DeVito, coming off of a career performance and still sleeping in his parents house 246 yards, three touchdowns, no picks You're telling me he's going to do that again against Bill Belichick? Absolutely not, absolutely not I Now. That being said, it is disgusting To want to back this Patriots team in any way, shape or form.

Speaker 2: 51:20

They'll be hybrid, a quarterback to they're saying Mac Jones and probably not gonna start and there's gonna be a whole bunch of. They said everybody could play all the cornerbacks Exactly If you if you can, if you can throw your plane yeah, so I mean.

Speaker 1: 51:36

And also this this doesn't just doesn't hurt our trend either Of of Thanksgiving favorites, so we're able to play this in a contrarian way, which I love to do so much. As I was saying before, one of the big biggest things for this game is going to be the increasing health of the New England Patriots. So Matthew Jude on could potentially return this game. They also could get Jones back as well, and maybe also their linebacker Bentley, and these are some key pieces at three different levels that they're that they've been missing for like four or five weeks or so, especially Matthew Jude on, who's probably the one of the biggest pieces that they that they were relying on to at least slow down Defenses and give their offense a chance, because they're off.

Speaker 2: 52:27

I think oh yeah, what is this that's?

Speaker 1: 52:30

like he's a sack and he's like. I don't know what he's doing?

Speaker 2: 52:36

just wiping his nose. It looks cool. That's gross.

Speaker 1: 52:39

But yeah, so there's that as well. And then also, I mean I tried to warn you about this, about the public plays and stuff too, but this is another one that just is Ridiculous. Like you're telling me, 74% of the bets are on the Giants. 74% of the bets are on the Giants. 74% of the bets are on Danny DeVito and the Giants against Bill Belichick, who's historically been known to abolish these rookie quarterbacks and Leave no trace of any evidence that that quarterback even existed.

Speaker 2: 53:21

I mean, you can defend scheme all the ones do. They can't score either.

Speaker 1: 53:25

Dude, I don't care It'll he'll find a way. I know all these bill Belichick stats are and and trends or whatever are outdated, but that is one that I cannot ignore, especially when you're getting this public dog and there's not very often you can get a, a favorite as a contrarian play. So fading the trendy dog is. It's like an auto bet for me and I got to do it.

Speaker 2: 53:57

But I'm not laying the three and a half, I'm just taking All this talk, bets and these Ricky quarterbacks for these statistic and stuff like that.

Speaker 1: 54:11

I mean you know like. I mean, yeah, they're okay. So first of all they're, they're only two and eight ats and they're also averaging 14 points a game.

Speaker 2: 54:20

That's what I'm saying. They can't score either.

Speaker 1: 54:21

So, like all this confidence, oh, like that, like, oh well, yeah but I mean, if they're gonna win, it's gonna be on like an interception and they kick a field goal to win and and then they win by three and I lose my bet because I laid three and a half.

Speaker 2: 54:35

So I'm taking a money line on my name.

Speaker 1: 54:39

And not looking back. So Next one that I have I mean, you know the Saints here, I know, man, oh, what could have been the Saints here they're. They're doing, they're doing something. I'm not sure if I can call it playing football or not, but they're at least yeah, we, we suck, and there's no getting around that.

Speaker 1: 55:10

This is, this is one of those two where I I Just I feel defeated. You know, I like the, the Saints. I always want to back and I always have confidence in them, because their offense is elite. They just have the. Dennis Allen cannot call plays and they and Derek Carr cannot run an offense. Yeah, and I don't think James is gonna be the answer to I was just so confused.

Speaker 2: 55:37

I don't understand. He has just as many, if not more, weapons than he had against with the Raiders, and he was always a very solid quarterback for them, so like put them in this system and I don't really understand what the problem is. Ten touchdowns for interceptions only this year and it has not looked great.

Speaker 1: 55:54

Exactly like man, but More of the story is I. I gotta go with the Falcons in this game. It, this is this, is do or die for. For your boy, arthur Smith. Yeah, I'm not sure if he's your board or not, but hey, my boy, no for your Arthur Smith.

Speaker 2: 56:15

And then also.

Speaker 1: 56:17

Exactly, and then also Another micro dynamics game. So you're getting 35% of the bets on Atlanta and 65% of the bets on the Saints. Mind you, the Saints are missing Michael Thomas. They're potentially without Derek Carr, yep, and they also don't have March on Laddermore. So you're telling me missing. You're starting wide receiver, your wide receiver to, and Also your number one cornerback, and you're gonna be getting 65% of the bets. And in a divisional game. No, I, absolutely not. I, I live and breathe. I know the Saints. This is this I. I have to play against them and if I lose it's a win-win, because then you know I make money. Or if I lose, I don't make money but I say happiness?

Speaker 1: 57:12

Yep, exactly, but if I lose, then or I always have that backwards. Anyway, I'm saying more. More of the story is I believe everybody Yep exactly. Thanks, we're gonna lose, fouls gonna win.

Speaker 2: 57:25

I'm not gonna do the dirty bird, but this is the first game that doesn't ridder is retaining his starting Quarterback position. Taylor Heineke had replaced him over the past game or two, and now basically they're saying Taylor Heineke Wasn't the answer either, so we're they're just gonna ride with their Desmond ridder for the rest of the season Is what Arthur Smith came out and said earlier this week.

Speaker 1: 57:45

So yep, and Also one. One last thing too on, that is that Desmond ridder at home, hello, auto lock roll out.

Speaker 2: 58:00

So lock of the season.

Speaker 1: 58:03

Absolutely. And last but certainly not least, this is another market dynamics game, but not as much as the other ones here. It's more of a value play that makes Absolutely no sense. You're telling me, yeah, sure, cooper Cup means a lot to to the team and everything like that, but are we forgetting about what happened early on in the season when Cooper Cup wasn't there and and there are on the Rams offense was looking Pretty dominant to Kyren.

Speaker 1: 58:35

Yeah, exactly. So you're getting Kyren Williams back, who I think is gonna mean more to the offense than what people think, and I mean the last game that he that Kyren Williams played against the the card was against the Cardinals. He ended up having 20 rushing yard, or 20 rushes for 158 yards, 7.9 yards per per carry, a touchdown long of 31. I mean, good, it's not bad. So Kyren Williams is is their workhorse running back. Like I don't want to say that he's an elite running back or good running back, but he is very important to the team and getting him back as he is, Okay he's.

Speaker 2: 59:24

I talk about Nazi hair. It's being good and so like that. Well, I mean Kyren's produced this.

Speaker 1: 59:31

But yeah, so moral the story is, kyren Williams is gonna be a guy that is gonna be able to elevate their Offense in a way where they're not only just passing to to run the ball, all these like short dump off passes, and Darryl Henderson cannot do anything, which is why he got released. So, um, yeah, I think this is gonna be a Not a new offense, but a return of the offense that we saw in the beginning of the season, even though Matthew Padford is still padding his stats back there. But I I'm hoping for another W out there for him. This is another game, too, that I made some money, because I I told you this game to the trendy, trendy pick and you didn't listen to me and I should have, I should listen to myself and taken and taken the other side.

Speaker 2: 1:00:24

But it's always gonna be a homer face. But yeah, I think that, as you mentioned, I think Kyren is a good running back second season and I think that he was Basically that one of the identities of what they wanted to do. They were he was getting a lot of volume, so he was usually getting about 25 touches they basically Ships and released cam makers completely after week two because they're like, okay, kyren's Williams is going to be the guy and basically the next two games he got all of the running back touches. Only once he started to kind of get a little banged up and stuff like that. It's when they incorporated their running running backs and then when he went out, they signed Darryl Henderson off the couch and elevated rice Freeman from their practice squad squad, who are not good running back. So they've been trying to hold down the fort for them. But now that he is back I don't think that he's gonna get the full workload In the first game, but I think he is definitely going to be a positive spark for them. And I mean, you know Cooper cup is an elite receiver and former triple car runner is, you know, great that for some reason the offense did look better with when it was just puka to to Kyren and all that kind of stuff. So that was maybe just because of, you know, everybody getting incorporated and everybody playing together, since the Rams have battled through a lot of injury. But if Cooper cup, even if he does not play, I still probably would have confidence in the Rams against the Cardinals, even though they have looked more formidable, with obviously Kyler Murray returning Alpha injury, winning the first game and then losing a decently close game against the Texans. So I agree with you there, unless you had another one going to get into a player prop that I had. As I mentioned, I was off of the Lions game.

Speaker 2: 1:01:59

Player prop I have is Jameer Gibbs, not for his rushing but for his receiving. The Green Bay Packers have played solidly when it comes to defense and again, defense against running back. When it comes to Russian, to a degree, sometimes they're up and down, but for Jameer Gibbs, I'm taking his over when it comes to his receiving yards, which is currently at 25.5. Has been averaging six targets over the past six weeks with about 40 yards receiving. So that would be my target and Obviously, with David Montgomery back and basically fully healthy, they are given them the full workload when it comes to his rushing attack and kind of putting swift more in the high reposition, even though he is getting more volume than he did even when David Montgomery was here first early in the first two or three seasons.

Speaker 2: 1:02:37

So our first two or three weeks I'm glad that they're actually given your boy his fair amount of work drew and he's been producing. He's been great over the past four weeks. I think he's probably been one of, if not the best, fantasy running back over the past four weeks. So that would be my pick. Jameer Gibbs over 25.5 receiving yards.

Speaker 1: 1:02:55

Already. I don't hate it, kind of like it, and my pick is also gonna be from the same game, since we are kind of projecting a just absolute bloodbath. It's gonna be David Montgomery over 66.5 rushing yards, and that's gonna be a minus 125. He has gone over his his rushing yards prop six out of the seven times that he Out of the seven games that he's played, and he's currently averaging 82.4 rushing yards per game. Last time I checked, though, 82.4 is higher than 66.5. Not only that, when his rushing yards prop has been at 66.5 I almost lost my head there he's gone over that six out of the seven times. So each and every time that he's played the whole game not one game that he didn't make it over was when he got hurt. So each game that he's played the full amount, he's gone over that prop. I Don't see why that would stop anytime soon in this game, especially because, like we talked about before, with basically the three major defenders on On the Packers.

Speaker 2: 1:04:16

Packers are injured.

Speaker 1: 1:04:17

Yep, they're injured right now, and especially with the depleted. Why? Why receiver core linebacking core? I just don't see how this is going to be like. Yeah, I just don't see how it's gonna end well for the Packers in and in any way shape or form Along with that, the Detroit Lions, because you know the game is always one in the trenches. Detroit Lions hold a 31% Offensive line rushing attack advantage against the Packers this week. So I Got no. I'm no mathematician, but 31% is is higher than Just about anything else that the Packers gonna be working with on the on their defensive end and also caveman brain right here. If he's averaging 82 Rushing yards a game, 82.4 rushing as a game, the prop is at 66. It's a very simplistic way to think about it, but he's also gone over his prop every single time that he's he's Been healthy and played the full allotment of snaps, like. I Don't know, maybe I'm missing something here, but I don't think I am, so yeah.

Speaker 2: 1:05:38

Yeah, that was my main one, unless you had another one. I Don't. He's in back into these player props. We don't have to, we don't have to do multiple yeah well, my, my.

Speaker 1: 1:05:53

The only other one I was thinking about was the now that Frank Reich is is calling the plays again, that leaves the door open for Adam Thielen over us again. Because when Adam Thielen was, when he was going over his prop every single week, that was with Frank right calling the plays. And when they switched over to Thomas Brown and they thought I was gonna be oh, this great revolution, and he comes from the Sean McVeigh tree and all these things, and then they actually scored less points.

Speaker 2: 1:06:28

Still there, it just yards weren't.

Speaker 1: 1:06:31

Exactly, and that's the gross part. So, yeah, but I don't think that his line is up just yet. That's another downside of doing these things early on in the in the week, which is why, if you join our discord, they'll be available later on in the week.

Speaker 2: 1:06:48

So Well, that's gonna wrap up this episode. Everybody, this has been the college out podcast. The host, alex Haynes and Jormor. Hope you all have a happy Thanksgiving. Safe travels to any of you guys traveling far. Again, we'll on. Or even traveling close walking. You know, just, you know, just just, stay safe out there.

Speaker 1: 1:07:05

It's round the block, you know.

Speaker 2: 1:07:07

As mentioned before, you can find this where you can find your podcast with the podcast ever Spotify. We are also on YouTube. For those of you watching us there, check our links in the bottom of the description to get our links to our social media, as we do have my little dog Come in here to say hi to everybody. So, yeah, if you like this podcast, give it a like, follow, comment, share. Anything else, true?

Speaker 1: 1:07:29

No, that's pretty much. It Make sure you download as well. That's what helps the channel grow, and if you are wanting to sponsor this podcast, feel free reach out.

Speaker 2: 1:07:38

Let us know, as long as it's not anything weird. Yeah, um happy Thanksgiving everybody. We will see you on Wednesday.

Speaker 1: 1:07:46

Peace.