NCAA Men's and Women's March Madness Preview 2024

In this episode of the Call You Shot podcast, the guys discuss the new free agent signings and trades in the NFL, the upcoming NBA playoffs, as well as the Men's and Women's March Madness NCAA tournament. They highlight the potential impact of the Steelers acquiring Justin Fields for a low draft pick, the strong performance of the Lakers in the playoffs, and the Western Conference play-in tournament. They also share their thoughts on potential upsets, Cinderella teams, and their Final Four picks. They also discuss the strengths and weaknesses of various teams and players. The conversation is filled with banter and friendly disagreements, adding an entertaining element to the discussion.

Transcript

Alix Harris (00:00.694)
Hello everybody. Thank you for listening. This is the Call You Shot podcast with your host, Alex Harrison. Drew Moore. Today's episode, we're going to cover some of the final free agent signings and trades that happen within the NFL, but not get too much into it as we're going to cover a lot of that stuff in more depth as we get closer to the NFL draft. We're going to talk about the NBA as we are getting closer to the end season tournament and the playoffs. And then lastly, finishing off talking about March Madness in the NCAA tournament, which is pretty much starting today and tomorrow. So, Drew, anything that you wanted to cover first within the NFL?

Drew (00:31.912)
Um, no, I mean, the main thing would just be Justin Fields, um, going to the Pittsburgh Steelers and I think it's absolutely hilarious that they thought that they were going to get a first round pick or like a second round pick for this guy. Um, and no, he's not worth that much. And at the end of the day, did they wait too long to get rid of them to try and see if they can get more value? Um, probably.

if we're being quite honest, because at this point, all of the major positions were already filled. And so nobody's going to pay a first or second round for a backup quarterback essentially. And so he goes to the Steelers and I think it's kind of funny too, because it's like Mike Tomlin will do anything he can to try and maintain that, uh, that record of, you know, never having a losing season. Um, whether that's going to be with Russ.

Alix Harris (01:27.436)
Never lost.

Drew (01:29.008)
Literally, it's going to be like, all right, Russ, you are cooked. So you're done with you, Justin. I've seen you in a couple of games, but not that many, but I've won more with less. So you got to be able to do something. And so here we are, um, you know, months down the road and Justin Fields finally getting deal. Um, and now, um, it's almost a sure thing that Caleb Williams is going to go number one overall. So.

Alix Harris (01:41.387)
Mm-hmm.

Alix Harris (01:55.862)
Yeah, both talked about it. Definitely think that they waited too long for the potential trade. They weren't sure what exactly they wanted to do. I knew he was going to go for a first or a second or anything like that, but I didn't think it would be for a six rounder. I feel like there's a lot of teams in the NFL that could have taken Justin Fields, who I do think is a starting quarterback in the NFL for a six rounder that could turn into a fourth rounder if he plays like 51% of the games and stuff. So that is surprising. I think the Steelers, you know, kind of made out like bandits in that regards. They don't have to pay him that much. They basically he's on a.

pretty much a prove it deal. And if they want to, they can resign them. Or if it doesn't work out with Russ, whatever the case may be, but that worked out for them. There was only three other major free agency signings or things of note that I thought we would need to cover. So if you, I'll go through them rapid fire, but if you want to talk to them or talk about them, let me know. We have Hollywood who ended up signing with the chiefs. So I think that's kind of a nice addition. Who's the probably going to be the best receiver that they've had since Tyreek Hill, even though the rookie did come on.

Drew (02:44.461)
Bye.

Alix Harris (02:53.626)
very strongly at the end of the season. We had Mike Williams ended up signing to the Jets after the charters were just like, you know, we're getting rid of everybody. Osnachler by Keenan Allen, by who they also traded to the Bears and Mike Evans or Mike Williams were just going to drop you. So he goes to the Jets. Um, as mentioned, Keenan Allen was traded to the Bears. So now you have, uh, Caleb Williams more than likely, as we said, potentially with a very good group of weapons and Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and Deandre Swift. Now.

And as we mentioned, lastly, the fields to the Steelers. So of all those four, which one do you think could probably make the best or the most immediate impact for their team?

Drew (03:30.484)
Um, I mean, it would have to be all the moves that the Bears have done, right? So getting Keenan Allen is, is absolutely massive. Um, and I think it's hilarious too, that, you know, the one of the biggest things for Justin Thiel's was that he never really had any weapons. And like I was telling you, you know, he, he was thrown into a bunch of like sub six foot players and anybody that calls themselves six foot is not actually six foot, so DJ Moore, not actually six foot, maybe five, 10 on a good day.

Alix Harris (03:36.471)
Mm-hmm.

Drew (04:00.156)
But more of the story is now, more of the story is now, he's getting these weapons, or he, Caleb Williams is going to be getting all these weapons to be utilized in the offense and they're going to be so much more dynamic. And, I mean, shout out to Ryan Pohl, it's like dude is playing chess, not checkers out here and he's just making the NFL look easy in terms of GM.

Alix Harris (04:05.775)
Thank you.

Drew (04:29.48)
Granted, still gotta be able to do something with that talent. But all the moves that he's made make it look like he knows exactly what he's doing. And it's a process, but at the same time, he's doing all the right things right now. So.

Alix Harris (04:44.11)
which is so annoying, I feel like if I was Justin Fields. So now I'm a backup to Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh and Caleb Williams is out here with all of these new toys and weapons that I never got to play with. And the Bears are probably gonna be much, I mean, I don't think they're gonna be like a playoff scene or anything like that, but I think they're gonna be better than last year because I don't think that's hard to do, hard to be. And yeah, so Kenan Allen, DJ Moore, Deandre Swift, you still have Colkomet.

Drew (04:55.913)
and

Alix Harris (05:10.374)
Anything that they do in the draft so I think that is a pretty good receiving corn way better than anything or weapons overall Way better than anything Justin Fields had during his time in Chicago. So anything else that you wanted to cover in the NFL?

Drew (05:22.717)
Um, no, that's pretty much everything. There we go.

Alix Harris (05:27.21)
Moving on to the NBA, we only have probably about five to seven games, depending on which team you are left before the end season tournament. And then the playoffs start right now. The main thing going on is the end season tournament or the playing happening or not in season tournament, the playing happening in the Western Conference is right now it's Dallas, Phoenix, Lakers and Golden State, which I feel like would be the most entertaining play in tournament in history. But.

What were your thoughts on those teams and which of those four teams do you think would be able to go the furthest in the playoffs if they were able to make it out the playoffs?

Drew (06:07.068)
That's tough. Because I mean, okay. I mean, like with beef at the beginning of the season, I was super high on the suns, right? And I was, you know, calling my shot, I was like, you know, they're gonna win the they're gonna win the West, like they're just gonna come out the West. And, you know, I mean, injuries happen. And that was the big thing with this team. I know.

Alix Harris (06:09.25)
No it's not.

Hehehehe

Alix Harris (06:17.846)
Mm-hmm.

Alix Harris (06:21.382)
Mm-hmm.

Drew (06:34.12)
it did ultimately end up coming to fruition and here we are. This is the new reality and this is what we all expected. I thought that there would be some change and there wasn't, but that being said, I do believe that when they're all together, they are still one of the more dominant teams in the league as opposed to the Mavericks, they don't know what they wanna do. They don't know who they are, they don't have.

Alix Harris (06:42.763)
Mm-hmm.

Drew (07:01.44)
identity. They're just like, we get buckets and occasionally hit skyhook game winners. So I think that going forward, like, I, I think the least flugasy team out there would be the Suns. But again, that being said, they also are the second worst team at covering the spread this year only to the Atlanta Hawks, where the Atlanta Hawks are hitting at a 30% clip the

Sons are hitting at a 33% clip. So that is ultimately the great equalizer is the spread. So great teams win, or good teams win, great teams cover. So we'll see how well that goes for them in the series.

Alix Harris (07:44.662)
Yeah, I don't. I mean, I think that we all agreed with the sons that if they were fully healthy in a perfect world, that they were a juggernaut offensive team. But it's like this is like the third time now or second or third time with Katie. It's like, you know what? The talents there are just going to assume everybody's going to be healthy and they're going to be great. And now obviously Devin Booker, who's dealt with injuries throughout his whole career, Bradley Beale has dealt with injuries throughout his whole career. And now they're all banged up and stuff and they were sitting fifth or sixth in the West, and now they are.

a half a game behind the Kings and the Mavericks are one or they're tied basically, but the Kings have the tiebreaker. So either of those three teams, the Kings, the Mavs or the sons could end up squeaking into that six spot. Um, the Lakers and Goldstein are pretty much securely in the plane, um, which is unfortunate because you notice how like they went the furthest out of any of those teams last year. Yeah. Uh, I'm just saying.

Drew (08:34.264)
Notice how I didn't mention them getting into the playoffs.

Drew (08:41.784)
That's fine. That was last year. Why are you living in the past?

Alix Harris (08:45.122)
Cause it's the same team. Nothing's changed. No, I'm talking about the Lakers. Exactly. I'm saying the Lakers are like the same pretty much as the team as last year. And I think that they can, once they get into the playoffs, that they are able to get out of the play and I think they can make some noise. And I don't think that any, I don't think that's what they did last year. I don't think any team wants to see LeBron in the playoffs.

Drew (08:47.881)
Not even Steph's hurt. Steph has like half a leg.

Drew (08:59.496)
You're just gonna flip the switch?

Drew (09:07.26)
Well, I mean, yeah, true. But at the same time, you know, you got, you got Mr. Street clothes, who's actually been playing pretty good. I'll admit. Um, and Anthony Davis, he's been playing pretty well. Yeah. I know that's what I'm saying. He's he's when he's actually out there, he's been good. And this year he's actually been out there, which is why they've been doing kind of decent, but the problem is being able to hold those leads and playing a full.

Alix Harris (09:10.422)
So the Warriors...

Alix Harris (09:20.502)
He's played so much over the past two years.

Drew (09:35.628)
game and not giving up those, those leads because like I told you before, those are the games that I bet on the Lakers and those are the games that I ended up losing. And it's so dumb. It's always like, oh yeah, they, they were up by, it's like, I can't get a read on them to save my life. It's like, you know, they're up by, you know, 35 and then they end up losing on a game winner or whatever, or they're down by, you know, 300. And then of course I have the other team and then

Alix Harris (09:43.47)
I'm out.

Alix Harris (09:48.362)
Stop betting on the Lakers, bro.

Drew (10:05.5)
winning coming back because the Ron just dropped 50 in one quarter. And I'm like, dude, are you like, what is going on? Like there's no way that all of this can always happen to me. But.

Alix Harris (10:16.918)
Yeah, that's how it is. Been a Lakers fan for the past 20 plus years. It's like, you know, all the games that were not expected to win, like when we don't have LeBron and we beat the Bucks or beat the Thunder who are fully healthy or beat pool.

Drew (10:28.632)
or when you beat the, it was the Celtics in Boston. Well, I'm talking about the one in, I got great close in my value on that. And they, let me tell you something, they literally, no LeBron, no AD, and I lost, not just like didn't cover. I, they blow the doors off that team. And it was, no, nevermind, I can't. I can't.

Alix Harris (10:33.038)
Timberwolves as well. Yeah, literally. Oh, no, I

Alix Harris (10:56.354)
Yeah, but those are the games we win. And then like when there's games that we absolutely need to win, like when we're on a hot streak and then we go against the Kings at home and we have a 20 plus point lead against them. And like the first second quarter, we blow that. Or when we have to go against them at their place. And basically we are six games above 500 for the first time all season. We have an opportunity to get within the seventh spot. And then we lose that game, too. So, I mean, we are who we thought they were. And hopefully we can get out of the play.

Drew (11:20.541)
I mean...

Alix Harris (11:23.19)
that's all i'm hoping i just wanna see you gotta make the playoffs and it doesn't look good for your go conversation if your man keeps playing in the play and can't make it out into the playoffs i'm just saying the warriors i don't have any i don't have any help for the warriors

Drew (11:32.057)
But also, I mean, you know

That's true. But like you were saying though too, with the losing the games to the Kings and the Kings winning games that they shouldn't and stuff like that, they're also one of the most hot and cold teams and hard teams to figure out in the league. Because if you go back and look at what they've done, they, if you just go back in chronological order here, they lost to the Knicks, okay, whatever, they lost at home to them, but they beat the Lakers, they beat the Bucks, and then they lost to the Rockets, they beat the...

Spurs barely only by three and third by two I can do math and then they beat the Lakers at the Lakers which is basically At home game for both of them and then they lost to the Bulls. They beat the Timberwolves they got blown out by the heat and also by the Nuggets But then they ended up beating the Clippers and then they beat the Nuggets as well like so who knows what they're gonna do and whatever you think that it's going to happen in their games do the opposite because

They don't even know what's going to happen next or who's going to be hot, who's going to be cold, so on and so forth. And like you said, that's your boy, Sabonis. He's one of the more underrated players out there in the league. He should get some of his respect, but he usually never does. But he did record his 50th straight double-double the other day.

Alix Harris (13:00.842)
Yeah, I think that the Kings are inconsistent at times, but like them, along with a lot of other teams, whenever they play the Lakers, they're just like, oh, wait, no, we're God like, and I think the Kings just have our numbers. So it's kind of tough because you have D Lowe and Austin Reeves having to guard De'Aaron Fox is like one of the fastest players in the league and Malik Monk, who is like literally a human microwave. So that's tough matchup. And then for some reason, Sabonash just has 80s number. I think he's like 11 and 0 in the past 11 games that they played and these completely dominated them. And then he kind of just.

Drew (13:10.92)
Thank you.

Drew (13:25.3)
Yeah.

Alix Harris (13:28.834)
big bodies him every single time that they're in the paint. So something that could potentially happen. I think that would be like a second round matchup or something like that. So I don't have high hopes that happened in the playoffs, but for whatever reason, the Kings do have the Lakers number. So what else did you want to get into in the NBA?

Drew (13:45.024)
I mean, we can talk about the scorching hot Houston Rockets. Like Houston, we don't have a problem anymore. Now we have a solution. All it took was them to get rid of their best player, Albert Shingoon, for them to go 8-1 in the month of March so far. And they also are third in the league when it comes to point differential in terms of offensive rating versus defensive rating.

Alix Harris (13:50.631)
Yep, wounded tiger.

Drew (14:12.272)
with offensive rating they are currently third in the league in the month of March as well as fourth in the league in terms of defense. So I mean you want to talk about is getting hot in H-Town like get down with the get down.

Alix Harris (14:29.31)
Yeah, I think that I don't remember exactly said eight and one in March, but since shingles been out, I think it was either four or no six and I was something like that. And Jalen Green has just been going absolutely insane. He's averaging 30 points per game, 10 rebounds and five assists on 50% field goal percentage and 43% from the three since shingles been out. So they've been having to lean on Jalen a lot more this year and or past few games and he's definitely stepped up.

Drew (14:34.26)
Mm-hmm.

Alix Harris (14:54.082)
People have always thought of him as a really good score, but he's just been very inconsistent and inefficient at times. So if he is able to kind of dial that in more so and be that elite scoring option with them with Shingu and then you have good depth and good options with Fred Van Fee and Dylan Brooks and a lot of the rookies and softwares that they have, that could be a potential good team over the next few seasons. I don't have. I don't know. I don't like Dylan Brooks and the and I don't like Emi Adoka.

But I can accept that Dylan books is better than probably most people give him credit for. And I can accept the fact that he is actually a very good coach. So there.

Drew (15:29.396)
That's great, that's great.

Alix Harris (15:32.424)
Um, nothing. Yeah.

Drew (15:35.149)
No, you go for it. It's all you.

Alix Harris (15:37.342)
No, that's pretty much that's pretty much all that has changed in the Eastern conference. Pretty much everything's still the same. Boston is still at the top of the league. Milwaukee has had some up and down games. They've same thing with Cleveland, who's been battling through injuries as well. The Knicks have still always been solid and the Orlando Magic are eight and two of these past few games. They're sitting at the fifth seed. They have a potential basically to get the fourth seed, but that's probably the most likely option.

I think that Paulo Boncaro is a player that's very underrated and doesn't get the respect that he deserves. And people talk about, you know, everything that Victor M. Binyam is doing and some of the stats that he's been up and obviously it's better than like people like want to compare him to like LeBron's rookie numbers and stuff like that. But I mean, Paulo Boncaro, other than like, I guess you could say like the rebounds because he's not seven four or like the blocks because he's not seven four. He's doing the same type of stuff. And he's been great this season, but nobody ever talks about the magic because I think that people

Drew (16:24.157)
I think that's it.

Alix Harris (16:33.01)
are like, okay, yeah, they're a good team or they're a solid team, but they're not going to do anything in the playoffs. So people don't give them the respect that they deserve, which I guess is fair, but they're a pretty solid team. And your 76 is Drew. They are hanging on for dear life for that sixth spot.

Drew (16:44.884)
Pardon. Well, one sec, one sec. You know, also in that same time period there, where we were talking about Houston, we also have Orlando, who is fourth right below Houston in that spot where they're seven and two in the month of March so far. However, their offensive rating is 18th, where their defensive rating is second. So and along with that too, if you want to talk about the great equalizer in the spread.

They are currently third or 13th when it comes to the spread difference, whereas Houston is second, beating the spread by an average of 9.7 per game.

Alix Harris (17:28.215)
Mm-hmm.

Drew (17:29.966)
Um.

Alix Harris (17:30.687)
If.

Drew (17:32.736)
and er.

Alix Harris (17:32.942)
Talk about your 76ers.

Drew (17:36.292)
Well, I was gonna go into your boy, Pablo, Paolo, Banchero. So in terms of points for shot attempt on cleaning the glass, he is currently in the 24th percentile, which is not honestly all that great, but he also is, when it comes to the assist percentage, he is first position.

He is in the 96 percentile and in terms of usage, he's obviously all the way up to the moon with that. He's done a great job at not only being the main guy, but being a facilitator as well. And if you're going off every night, there's gonna be times where you're gonna get double teamed and everything too, but being able to play make out of that post position is gonna be a huge thing for them.

And you've seen him kind of evolve and evolve and be able to do that over time Whereas last year he didn't really have that in his game all that much, but he was still You know getting buckets, but not as much before so I Guess you know all that to say he's a He is one of the more elite players in the league, but I do still think that He needs help

Uh, the Wagner brothers are not going to be enough to help them reach the next level. He's good. Yeah, they're very good. But I think that they need another, uh, elite player on that team for them to really make some noise. Uh, cause I mean, ultimately, you know, like the Franz brothers, like they're good and everything, they're good, good bigs. Um, but I don't really like Orlando's guard play, um, with, with Suggs out there as well as, uh, Foltz.

Alix Harris (19:07.016)
A Frans is solid.

Drew (19:32.516)
I just think that they have no scoring when it comes to the offense or the front court position there. So I think that, or sorry, back court position. So I think that Cole Anthony is not going to be the answer long term. So find somebody else that can get a bucket and maybe be a microwave. So yeah.

Alix Harris (19:56.574)
Yeah, I mean, I like Cole Anthony. I like Jalen Suggs, but I don't yeah, I agree with you. I don't think that they're Game changes anything like that Mo Wagner the Center is okay He's averaging like 11 and 5 but I like Franz Wagner He's averaging about 20 points per game for rebounds for assist 5 assist actually But yeah, I think the magic have a decent core talent wise But obviously like you said they either need to make a splash and free agency

big signing or they need to continue to develop in the draft. But for a team that basically started, you know, restarted from the ground up, I think that they've actually been in a pretty good position. Um, but yeah, the other than that, those are the three main teams that are basically battling for that fifth, sixth and seventh spot. It's the magic. It's the 76ers and the Pacers who ever since Tyrese Haliburn's hamstring injury, he's become a lot more. And if, I don't know if it's strictly because of the hamstring injury, he's still trying to find his flow back.

Whatever the case may be, but they've kind of been struggling there five and five over these last ten games. And it just hasn't been really clicking on all cylinders. So right now they're a half game back behind the 76ers who are trying to keep their heads above water without Joel Embiid, who supposedly is making more progress. I don't know what they're going to do. I mean, personally, I don't think I would risk him coming back. I don't think that even with him that they're going to go that far in the playoffs. So for him to come back in the playoffs and potentially, you know, have more injury

to be hampered going into next season is a risk that I want to be willing to take. So thoughts on that.

Drew (21:28.004)
Yeah, I mean, they like when it rains, it pours. And it's one of those things where, you know, Philly had real high hopes until and B got hurt and then all of a sudden and B got hurt. And, and ever since then it's kind of been, um, middle of the pack. They haven't just gone like completely downhill what they did initially, but, um, you know, it's been a, a slow and steady decline for them. And.

Alix Harris (21:47.458)
Mm-hmm.

Drew (21:56.24)
I just think that like you're saying, I wouldn't rush them back. Like you're not having any real hopes of doing anything crazy in the playoffs anyways. So why risk it? Why risk your cornerstone of your franchise for a potential to maybe make it to the second round? Like you're not even, yeah. So, and as far as like the Pacers go and stuff, yeah, without Halle, their offense is kind of just meh.

And then you also have Ben Mathurin getting hurt as well. And so, you know, that's another depth piece right there, the point guard position, point guard shooting guard, whatever. And, you know, it was a, it was a good try Indiana. But I think that, I think that ultimately they, you know, they're still a year or two away, they have solid pieces, they have playmakers, they have

Alix Harris (22:42.126)
I'm out.

Drew (22:53.724)
decision makers, they have shot blockers, three point shooters, you name it, they got it. But I think that there's a lot of inconsistency on a day to day, game to game basis to where they still, I mean, anytime that you have a defense that is just that bad, that's basically like a white paper bag, I think that, you know, you're not really going to do anything all that crazy. And their offense has cooled down over time.

As opposed to where it was before the beginning of the season where they were like, you know first or second or whatever Yeah, exactly. So, you know just like most things in life it all comes back to the mean so

Alix Harris (23:25.526)
not historic anymore.

Alix Harris (23:37.198)
Fair enough. That is pretty much all I have the NBA other than, you know, Victor Wimbenyama again, give them the rookie of the year trophy already. Chet, you know, great player already. I'm going to go have a good opportunity to be on the, you know, the highest stage and go pretty far in the playoffs and stuff like that. While Victor Wimbenyama is going to be at home, but I mean, 21, 10 rebounds, three and a half blocks, three and a half assists, 1.5 steals. I don't know what you want for Victor Wimbenyama. Peace, baby goat.

Drew (24:03.684)
Um, yeah, with all those stats, that's cute and everything, but let's talk about the real rookie of the year here. Um, and in a section I'd like to call scoot Henderson appreciation, um, where our man scoot Magoo, uh, he has dropped 14, 11, 12, and we'll talk about the two point game where, um, it's Atlanta, but, uh, they won that game. That's, that's a team player right there. Only two points in 17 minutes, but God damn it. They won. So that's all that really matters.

Alix Harris (24:07.446)
You know what?

Drew (24:31.452)
And then he had 13, 15, 14. You know, my man has been dominating out there really. When it comes down to it, he's also getting the boards and everything too, crashing the glass, slinging the ball around, moving it around. Last game he had 14, five and five. That's solid. Granted, it was on four of 17 shooting, but you know, you can't win them all. The hoop is a lot smaller than you think, right? It's a lot harder to make those shots in the NBA.

But in terms of usage, he has been increasing his usage, and which is good because then he's getting some more exposure. However, this shouldn't be, this kind of is like an actual thing, but it shouldn't be this drastic where his usage is going up, but his points per shot attempt is like drastically just like not good at all. He's, yeah. I give you start from.

Alix Harris (25:26.45)
Math isn't math-ing.

Drew (25:30.676)
We'll say we'll start from the Atlanta game on the 13th. He was in the third percentile, 17th percentile, 58th percentile against the Pelicans, which is good. But then he was in the 13th percentile. And, you know, that's not ideal. But, you know, he's learning. He's still young and he still has potential. He still has time to win that rookie of the year. So.

Alix Harris (25:57.39)
I mean, be generous and round up, you know, is averaging 13, three and five or something like that. So like, I don't think it's bad. I think that he had his early rookie of the rookie struggles as many rookies do. Most people don't come into the league and immediately dominate because they haven't been playing like in the pro league, like a Victor Wimbenyama or like a Luke or whatever the case may be. Um, there's been tons of players that kind of have like his similar potential that struggled their rookie season.

MVP conversation or all NBA conversation and Anthony Edwards, he had a terrible rookie season started to come on towards the end of the season and I'm not saying that Scoot Henderson by any means is going to be close to Anthony Edwards, but I'm just saying that he has improved. He has improved. I think, I think like in the first couple months of the season, he was playing terrible and he was shooting like, you know, single digit field goal percentage or something like that.

Drew (26:38.257)
I think you will be.

Maybe he'll be better.

Alix Harris (26:51.11)
But he has been improving another player on your team that's also been stepping up as of late is Deandre 8 and drew your big, you know, franchise center. Hundred million dollars, something like that. But yeah, over the past few games, he's been averaging like 24, 15 and two. So, I mean, right now for the season, he's averaging 16 points, 11 rebounds and one assist, which is about what your boy Nurkic was averaging anyway. So he's younger. There you go.

Drew (26:51.814)
happens.

Drew (27:00.905)
Yeah.

Drew (27:16.921)
I guess.

Alix Harris (27:18.95)
Any anything else that you wanted to cover in the NBA before we move on to March Madness?

Drew (27:25.252)
No, that's pretty much everything.

Alix Harris (27:28.386)
So going on to March Madness, we are going to obviously we can't talk about every single team or every single matchup and stuff. So the way that we decided to break this up is to talk about two teams that we feel were on upset alert teams that are high rankings or expected to go further in the playoffs that we feel like have the potential to get upset early. Then we could each have a Cinderella story, a team that may not be that high rank, but we feel like could go far in the playoffs. And then we're both going to talk about our final four and give our championship.

And then we're going to do a similar thing for the women's as well. So drew what two teams we can go back and forth, I guess. So which one team do you feel is on upset alert?

Drew (28:03.784)
first team I think is going to be on upset alert is going to be. Do you want to do it? Yeah, let's do it. Illinois is going to be on upset alert for me. Going into this matchup, one of the things that, again, trans don't pay the rent, but they sure do tell a damn good story, right? And one of the things to look for is those one-dimensional teams where you have one team that is...

Alix Harris (28:14.537)
Oh.

Drew (28:34.348)
in the, or that is outside of the top 75, when it comes to either offensive rating or defensive rating. And some of those teams are Alabama, Illinois, Dayton, NC State, McNeese State, UAB, Florida, James Madison, Florida Atlantic, Kentucky. Those are the teams that fit that bill. On top of that, there's also another trend where I believe it's about like 85% or so.

since about 2003, that teams that are one-dimensional, but also have an adjusted offensive rating below 115, but then an adjusted defensive rating above 90, according to Kenpong, 85% for the seeds one through nine, those teams often end up having an early exit, meaning that they don't make it past the second day or the first weekend, whatever you wanna call it.

And those teams would include Illinois, Kentucky, Florida, Atlantic. So also NC State's on there, but they're not a one through nine seed. So, well, anyways, yeah, Illinois fits that bill. And again, trends don't pay the rent, but they sure do tell a damn good story. And I mean, just looking at this matchup too, let me pull this up here. Where's my Ken Palm tab? So.

Yeah, sure, you know, Illinois, good offense, whatever, that's great. But also if you look over at the defense of Morehead State, they're not that bad. Right. When you want to say like that bad, whatever, but they're also very comparable team to where they've been able to compete with some of the best teams in their division, but also league wide, and I had it up here and now it's gone, hold on, hold, hold.

Oh yeah, there we go. Click on the wrong thing there. So, Morehead State, defensively, they have the, they're 121 in defense, which might not sound great, but according to Ken Palm, they also are ninth in effective field goal percentage, where Illinois seems to thrive on offense is getting good quality shots. However, Morehead State does a fantastic job at limiting those opportunities for the other team.

Drew (31:00.188)
And then if you look at Illinois defense, they're 92nd in the league where Morehead State, sure, they're 124, whatever. That's not good. But what they do best is Chuck and Duck. They shoot the three ball like none other. Whereas Illinois, they give up the three at one of the worst rates in all of the college basketball, all of the college basketball and all of college basketball.

Alix Harris (31:28.962)
Oh, no.

Drew (31:29.28)
34%, they're 214th when it comes to three point percentage, as well as they get no turnovers at all. They cannot turn the ball over to save their life. They are 360th, 360th Alex, in turnover percentage. Like they couldn't steal the ball from my little baby cousin, it's not good. And so, you know, that, that and putting that into consideration as well.

Alix Harris (31:49.035)
a man?

Drew (31:58.512)
And then finally, sure, yeah, you know, Illinois has got some trees over there. Um, like, you know, they're eighth in the league or eighth in college basketball in terms of height. However, when it comes to, uh, the scoring on the, uh, on the inside. Morehead state, I think we'll be able to dominate that matchup where they score at the 21st or their 21st in the league.

in terms of two point percentage, whereas Illinois defense is 36, which is good, but not great. 21 is still better than 36. And then also on the defensive end, Morehead State is 16th in terms of limiting the two point percentage, whereas Illinois is 34th. Again, not bad, but also 16 is better than 34, last time I checked. And the majority of where Illinois likes to get their shots is going to be down low.

in the two point percentage area. And that is where they limit most of the shots on defense is in the two point range area. Granted, they give up a lot of threes, like a shit ton of threes, but Illinois can't really do that. They're not really that great at it. So it doesn't really matter. So I rest my case, your honor.

Alix Harris (33:14.262)
So you don't even think it's upset alert. You genuinely think that they are going to win or are going to lose. Ah.

Drew (33:18.832)
Yep, absolutely. Yeah. I have more head state advancing.

Alix Harris (33:24.59)
There you go. Well, I don't have this is upset alert, but I don't necessarily have. I don't have this team losing. I just think that it's going to be a tough matchup. My thing is Kansas versus Sanford. We know that Kansas is dealing with a lot of injuries. They are dealing with injuries going into the tournament, and now they are for sure going to be out without Kevin McCuller for the rest of the tournament as he's dealing with injuries. And then you have their second best player, Hunter Dickinson, the seven to big boy is also dealing with injuries as well. So.

Drew (33:52.788)
You say it like that.

Alix Harris (33:52.862)
I feel like with having that pause big boy, I feel like it's going to be tough for them. Sanford is top five in the nation in scoring. So they're able to put points on the board. If you are coming into a situation where you are without your highest scoring player who's averaging 20 points per game and your next big, who is also dealing with injury, who's averaging 19 points per game is going to be tough. So if they're able to Sanford's able to, you know, score efficiently and get points on the board and you know, eventually palms get sweaty. Kansas, I feel like is.

Drew (33:56.5)
Yeah.

Alix Harris (34:21.758)
still a February there are seven and a half point favorite at Sanford and a lot of these 13, 14, 15, 16 seats have literally nothing to lose. They're playing with house money and they have a lot of confidence. They've only lost five games all season. Albeit they have not played great teams. Their one top five, top 25 matchup was a loss. But again, I think with Kansas's injuries and with Sanford's ability to score that it could potentially be a good game. We could potentially see upset. I don't have that. I'm just saying that would probably be one that

for a high ranking team was probably one that I'm the least confident about.

Drew (34:54.552)
Yeah, I would also agree with that. I, again, I don't think that, I think that Kansas will be able to take care of them. Um, I think it's just a step up in class and I think that they're good enough, um, to win without, uh, without McCuller and without, um, your big boy. Um, but yeah, yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, and like a 50% version of them is still better than like most of the nation. So.

Alix Harris (35:13.15)
Dickinson should play. He should play. He's just kind of ham.

Drew (35:24.468)
And it sure as hell is going to be better than Sanford as well too. My thing is going forward outside of after that matchup, Kansas is going to run into a problem without McCullar because according to ESPN and his on-off stats, this is his net rating. When he's on the court is 14.1. When he's off the court, it's negative 3.6. His true shooting percentage when he's on the court for the team is 58%. When he's off the court, 55%.

Alix Harris (35:34.766)
Mm-hmm.

Drew (35:52.992)
Effective field goal percentage, 54%, off the court, 51%, and three point shooting percentage is 36% when he's on, and 29% when he's off. So, obviously, as you can tell, scoring is gonna be quite difficult without your best player there, and you see what kind of impact he has on the offensive end for that team, so.

Alix Harris (36:16.75)
Fair enough, what would your second pick be? If you have one.

Drew (36:20.668)
So I honestly got a few. I'm only gonna break down a couple of them though. Cause otherwise we'll be here all day. So one of them that I had was Oregon. And that one is more so due to just like trends as opposed to like actual stats and stuff. I mean, the stats group would also probably back it up if I had checked that out, but I didn't check it out because I was like, I mean, it's an easy pick there.

Alix Harris (36:27.35)
Okay.

Alix Harris (36:35.054)
Hmm. Interesting.

Alix Harris (36:43.886)
Mm-hmm.

Drew (36:50.504)
So Dana Altman, 15-5-1 ATS in his tournament, in the past tournaments, and he's also never been eliminated in the first round. Additionally, I just happened to randomly find this, okay. I also just happened to randomly find this stat on the luck factor on Ken Palm. And so I was going through it and I was trying to decide on like, you know,

Alix Harris (37:03.502)
First time for everything.

Drew (37:20.844)
what does this even mean or whatever. And it's basically just like the difference between what was expected to happen and what actually happened and what the deviation from that is. And so going back, I checked all the way back to 2018, just because I have a life and don't wanna go back too far. But going back to 2018, skipping 2020, because obviously there was no season, no tournament. Out of 45 qualified teams over the past six years, only three teams,

have made it past the second round if they're ranked inside the top 30 when it comes to luck on Kemppong. And those three teams were the 2018 Kansas and then the 2018 Loyola, as well as Miami in 2023, and all three of them made it to the Final Four, whereas the 2022 Miami team made it to the Elite Eight. So those are the, I know I said three teams, but I also ended up finding the fourth team there later on.

And then also if you adjust for like the rating for it to be They one of the numbers that set most often around like the 30 ish range is 0.081 So if you go 0.081 or lower then that only leaves the two Miami teams in 2022 and 2023 and then this trend has also

The 2018 Xavier team, the 2019 Kansas team, by the way, Xavier was the number one team in that league, or number one team that year. And then Kansas was the number four team in 2019. The number seven Clemson team in 2021. The number three Wisconsin team in 2022. The number six team, Colorado State team in 2022 as well. Number seven in 2023. And then as we know, Kansas number one team.

last year getting bounced. So again, trends don't pay the rent, but they sure do tell the damn good story. And if this is all correct, which I know it is, because I did it myself, then that means that teams such as Stenson, Granley State, Sanford, UAB, Virginia, Utah State, and Oakland, as well as South Carolina, are all qualified for this.

Drew (39:49.92)
trend to be true. So put all that together. Oregon moving on. Dana Albin keeping his streak alive and South Carolina getting bounced.

Alix Harris (40:04.038)
I like that pick actually have that same pick. So I am going to argue too much. My next one, my next one, we already talked about it before the before we started the show. NC State going over Texas Tech, my boy, you already know, Brian Burns, baby Zibo. They've been on a heater lately. They started the season 12 and two, then they went through a very hard slump midway through the season and basically got.

Drew (40:06.685)
That's gross. I'm changing it.

Alix Harris (40:27.906)
close to around 500 and then they just went on an absolute heater to close the season. And then when the ACC tournament and they're like, you know what, let me just beat all of these elite teams. So they beat the Duke, they beat UNC. The other teams that they bet were solid. They beat Syracuse and Virginia, and they become the ACC champs. They're now the 11th seed going against Texas tech who's the sixth seed. And I think Texas tech, both of them are very similar when they're offensive game, but the Texas tech has problem against the Boars and has problem against bigs. And last time I tech DJ burns kind of fits that build. So I think that they go into the,

come go into the tournament with this confidence and having the ability and knowing that they can beat these elite teams. And I don't think that Texas tech is better than UNC or Duke who were fully healthy and like you mentioned multiple times, you're like, well, they retired and stuff, all the other teams played the same amount of time type of games as well. So I got Brian or I got DJ burns and NC state moving on against Texas tech.

Drew (41:22.304)
Gross. It's gross, honestly. I mean, again, they weren't even, they were out of the tournament. They weren't even supposed to be here. The only reason why they're in the tournament is because they won all of those games. Albeit, yeah, they're great wins. That's great. That's cute. That's awesome. Good for them. But also, getting into the tournament is one thing. Winning and having multiple wins throughout the season and in the tournament.

Alix Harris (41:24.75)
It's not.

Alix Harris (41:32.27)
Okay.

Alix Harris (41:36.862)
yeah and who did it and beat who

Alix Harris (41:43.068)
Okay.

Drew (41:52.188)
is another thing. And I think that Texas Tech is one of those teams that they have that experience to where, they're in the tournament just about every year. And in terms of the age-wise, yeah, sure, NC State has that as well too. They have some old folks over there, maybe going to the old folks home pretty soon. But at the same time, I do think that the overall talent of Texas Tech is going to prevail.

Alix Harris (42:01.07)
Mm-hmm.

Drew (42:21.168)
In terms of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, NC State is 47th, whereas that's on offense, whereas they are 91st on defense, which puts them, if I do remember correctly, which puts them on the outside looking in, in terms of that trend that we had where you have one team, or one team, or my goodness, you have a one dimensional team.

where you have an adjusted offensive rating below 115 and adjusted defensive rating above 90. 91 is right outside of it. So that counts, qualifies them to have an 85% chance of getting bounced in the first weekend, as well as them having one rating outside of the top 75. Whereas Texas Tech solid on both ends where they have 54, no 54, my God.

I think I'm having a stroke again. This happened a couple times ago, but anyways. Whereas Texas Tech has a balanced offense and defense where they're, I did it again, 48th on defense and they're 23rd on offense. So, and along with that teams that are in the top 75 on both offense and defense tend to make the Sweet 16 or have a higher likelihood of making the Sweet 16. Obviously not everybody can make it and there's like a

Alix Harris (43:22.318)
Probably.

Drew (43:48.016)
laundry list of teams that qualify for that. But again, trends will pay the ramp, but they sure do tell a damn good story. And that is a damn good story that I'm gonna listen to and follow, especially because, like I said before, NC State is tired. They are coming off of a, basically they won the Super Bowl. They weren't supposed to be there. They celebrated till the cows went home, I think they're tired. Again, did I say that they're tired? They're tired, Alex.

Alix Harris (44:07.838)
And now we hear that we hear back against the wall going into the ACC tournament, going into the ACC tournament, basically on the outside, looking in and continuing to beat these top 10 teams within the nation. I mean, I don't know what you want to, they are also my Cinderella steam lowkey. I'm just going to say that. So if you, it is beautiful actually.

Drew (44:20.252)
Hmm. Okay, but also, that's cute. That's cute. That's cute. But also, look at this, though. What are they gonna do on defense? What are they gonna do on defense? So they're 91st. They're exactly they're 91st in terms of offensive or defensive in terms of defensive rating, right? 91st. But then when it comes to three point percentage that they allow, they're 246 Alex. Is that good?

Alix Harris (44:29.686)
Don't worry about that. Phoenix Sons.

Alix Harris (44:48.071)
Yeah, it's good enough to win the ACC tournament.

Drew (44:50.444)
Okay, yeah. Whereas on the offensive end, Texas Tech is 37th in the league, or in the in all college basketball in terms of three point shooting percentage. So you're going to give me somebody that's shooting. That's 37th in the league, going up against a team that is 246 in the league. And mind you, Texas Tech, what do they what did they what's their bread and butter? Three point shooting attempt or three point field goal attempts. They're

Alix Harris (44:52.238)
Hahaha!

Drew (45:18.6)
which may not sound like a lot, but there's 366 teams in all college basketball. And if you're 81st, that's in the upper echelon of that, meaning that you shoot a metric blank ton of threes throughout the game. Whereas NC State, they give up a field goal percentage of 35.4, which is 103 in the nation. So all that to say that Texas Tech

I don't want to say they're going to roll, but I do think that they might make it look easy out there. Just having a bunch of wide open shots. And I think that also, and let's bet on it. Yeah, sure, man. Whatever, wherever you want. I don't even know what the spread is. Let me check.

Alix Harris (45:56.214)
You know, let's bet on it then.

Alix Harris (46:01.011)
I want the spread, I want my points. Alright, no no, you already all this confidence and stuff like that, just give me the blind spread. Okay, fine.

Drew (46:08.572)
I mean, I don't even care what this Friday, you know, it's, you know, this Friday could be like 15. I'll take it. No, but, um, nah, we ain't gonna do that. It was, it was, it was like crazy. But, um, let me see. Let me pull this up. Do, do, college basketball.

Alix Harris (46:16.214)
I'll take 15.

Drew (46:33.284)
And so you're saying that that's your.

Alix Harris (46:33.934)
I think the spread right now is only at four and a half. Well, that's what I'm saying. It's kind of like a, it's a yes and no because I do think they're gonna win this round, but I don't think that winning one round makes you a Cinderella story, but I can't consciously put them over Kentucky. They could play in the next round. So that is the problem. So, huh? Oh, you know. Just personal reasons.

Drew (46:51.06)
Why not Alex? They be all these teens.

Alix Harris (47:02.21)
You do know who one of those number one teams is going into this tournament though. And in my, you know, love in North Carolina, who is a number one seat, they already took care of them convincingly. I'll be like convincingly. I would understand if they were all these like, you know, basically buzzer beaters and all that kind of stuff. They won the ACC tournament convincingly.

Drew (47:25.772)
I mean, whatever. Anyways, it's a five and a half, nope, five point spread.

Alix Harris (47:30.444)
Okay.

Alix Harris (47:33.994)
All right. I'll take the five.

Drew (47:35.804)
You, you, all right, bet. I heard it here first. I mean, easy, my easiest, easiest bet I made all day.

Alix Harris (47:41.162)
Moving on. So that. That is my last. Upset alert, and that was basically my Cinderella team. So if you have some upset, Cinderella teams that you want to get into as well, go ahead.

Drew (47:56.624)
Yep, so, I mean, I don't know if you count like a seven, 10, kind of an upset. Okay, fair enough. Well, moving on then. So my other one would be.

Alix Harris (48:06.763)
I don't.

Alix Harris (48:12.947)
Most likely upsets throughout the internment history.

Drew (48:15.508)
Yeah, yeah. I mean, so, okay, so we have New Mexico against Clemson. Again, you could probably say that they're also probably tired. But at the same time, after starting, this is for Clemson, after starting 11-0, they finished the season 12-11 and they lost the first, in the first round of the conference tournament to the 74th ranked Boston College.

Alix Harris (48:30.748)
Mm.

Drew (48:43.584)
They didn't just lose in overtime. They didn't lose by one or two. They lost by 21. They got skunked. So I think that this team's coming in, you know, down on the whole season because they started out super hot. And then after that, they just kind of ebbed and flow throughout the season. And then they ended the conference play on a just atrocious note. Sure. Maybe it's a buy low spot for them, but I don't think it's as much of a buy low spot. I think it's just a buy them because they're dead kind of thing. And I think that New Mexico.

coming in, they're hot, and they've won 15 of, oh my God, they are 15 and eight in the same period, and they've also beaten teams like the number 37 overall, Boise State, number 30 Colorado State, and number 20 San Diego State University. So that was also on back to back to back days. So again.

I think that, you know, sure, maybe they're tired just like NC State, but also they've actually beat quality caliber teams where they've done this throughout the whole season, not just in, oh, actually, let's just decide, you know, at the end of the season, we're going to be good now. No, NC or New Mexico State, or New Mexico State, New Mexico has been good the whole season as opposed to just kind of picking up play towards.

Alix Harris (50:01.738)
If you, if you tell me, if you tell me, Oh, okay. You can beat these, you can beat three top 10 teams. How would you want to do it? Would you want to do it when you're getting hot towards the end of the season and everybody can be, you know, in the right headspace, whatever. Or would you like to, you know, methodically beat them throughout the entirety of the season? Cause Clemson, yeah, Clemson has Clemson's beaten these good teams too, throughout the entirety of the season. They've been Alabama, they've beat North Carolina, but I mean, when NC state does it in one week.

Drew (50:15.996)
I mean, you know, look.

Drew (50:20.528)
Alright.

Alix Harris (50:29.694)
And then you put them in a similar bracket where everybody's playing back to back just like you are in the NC tournament. But, uh, contradictory.

Drew (50:36.664)
Look, look, look. So this was also happening. This was going on here. So you also have the fact that New Mexico is actually a good team. So we're forgetting this, right? Because we talked about NC State. We talked about what their flaws were on offense and on defense, quite frankly, mostly on defense. Whereas New Mexico, they're 42nd in terms of offensive rating.

and they're 20 second in terms of defensive rating. Last time I checked New Mexico State, or New Mexico State, NC State was like, I don't know, like 47th and 91st? Yeah, like, that's not good, Bob. There's a little bit of a difference between, you know, having the 22nd ranked defense and having the 91st ranked defense. Sure, maybe the offenses are comparable, but at the same time,

I'm going to rely on the team that's been doing it the whole season, as opposed to the team that's, you know, all of a sudden just found lightning in a bottle because sure, that makes for a great Cinderella story. But at the same time, the ball is going to drop. The pumpkin is going to turn back into, or is going to turn back in, I messed it up. Never mind. Forget me. Forget it. It's over. The carriage is going to turn back into a pumpkin. Whatever. Moral of the story. I was going to say moral of the story is that.

Alix Harris (51:55.898)
Alright, fair enough. Moving on.

Drew (52:01.872)
New Mexico is going to get the upset, and NZC is not going to get that upset there.

Alix Harris (52:10.774)
Do you have more? Would you like to just go and continue on to the final four and championship?

Drew (52:15.928)
Yeah, real quick. I'll just mention that I had Duke or Duke Drake as my Cinderella story Making it pretty deep there and first and foremost. They're taking on wazoo and wazoo sure You know, they've had some pretty good wins against Arizona But also they've had some pretty bad losses in terms of losing to the 60th rank UW team and then also the hundred twenty seventh

Alix Harris (52:32.514)
Wa- Wazoo!

Drew (52:44.856)
ASU team, 122nd Cal team, 55th Oregon team, which they're in the tournament at least, 50th Utah team, 108th Santa Clara team, and then 31st Mississippi State team. That was the beginning of the year. So there's some pretty bad losses, and these games weren't exactly close either. Whereas Drake, in this matchup specifically...

It's basically a home game for them, because it's going to be in Omaha, which, I mean, they're in Des Moines. So 137 miles, I had to Google this. I was like, they're 137 miles away, hour 59 minute drive. So that's doable. I'd go see my team for that. And then in terms of the non-conference that Wazoo played, it was ranked 316th in the nation. So the competition that they were playing outside of the Pac-12 was just piss poor.

Whereas Drake, I mean, okay, fair enough, but at the same time Drake, you know, not much better, but 243rd in the league, which again is better than 316th. So I'm going to go with Drake to make a deep run in the tournament. I have them going, where do I have them going here? I have them going all the way, all the way to...

Alix Harris (53:44.31)
but you don't know no better.

Drew (54:13.279)
Delete eight.

Alix Harris (54:17.102)
There you go. What is that Final Four look?

Drew (54:21.696)
So for the Final Four, I was going to get a little crazy. I did get a little crazy, but not as crazy as I was going to get. So I got Auburn, I got North Carolina, and I got Houston, and I got Creighton. So.

Alix Harris (54:29.63)
I hope.

Alix Harris (54:43.566)
Who do you got knocking off Yukon? Auburn in the Sweet 16? Interesting.

Drew (54:46.268)
Yep, absolutely. Um, cause I mean, you know, we talked about this a little bit before we came on here. Talking about how number one seeds are overall number one teams usually don't fare that well, uh, going into the tournament. And so, and I mean, it's hard to win back to back years and I can't have UConn winning again, because that's just like the most chalky play ever. So, you know, if you're going to win a bracket, you gotta, you gotta zig where people zag, you know what I mean? So. I think that, uh,

No pun intended with Gonzaga moving on to my Elite Eight either. But, besides the point, I think that Auburn, they play a very up tempo kind of game and the combination of their guards and I forget who their big man is, but that dude's literally been in college for like, I don't know, 10 years. I think that, you know, going forward, I think that experience is going to be the most beneficial thing for this Auburn team.

And, you know, granted, it's a Bruce Pearl team, but I think that Auburn can make a deep run and potentially make it to the championship.

Alix Harris (55:59.998)
I think that if Auburn is able to beat UConn, then I could agree with you and see them in the Final Four. I just personally don't think that they're going to be able to beat UConn, which is why I have UConn as my, in my Final Four. I have North Carolina out of a Homer pick because even though I didn't pick them as my champion this year, unlike every single season, every single year over these past like 10 years, I do still think that they are a good team. I do still think that they do have experience with Baycott. I have Houston and then I also have Creighton in my Final Four as well.

Um, I wanted to, I wanted to put Purdue in there. I wanted to put Purdue in there. Cause I'm just like, y'all, you can't, you guys can't do this every year. It can't be that bad. Zach, you, you got to step up eventually and you can be this elite player of the year and everything like that. But as soon as you get into the tournament, teams are able to kind of slow you guys down, then you guys kind of get upset and you don't know what you guys literally don't know what to do acts like you guys forget how to play basketball when you guys are behind. Um, but I have them in my elite eight, but I do have.

Drew (56:30.12)
Yeah, I'm paying it back.

Drew (56:39.622)
No, same.

Alix Harris (56:57.862)
I'm creating pulling off the upset to take on Houston And then we can continue on from there. I have Houston and Yukon as my as my champion in a championship game And I have Yukon in a back-to-back no OVL

Drew (57:12.316)
Yeah. I mean, again, it's so there's a couple of other things to hear that are in play. When it comes to picking the teams that make the final four, this is per Ken Palms ratings and everything. And this is like a fluid rating. So it can change on which teams qualify throughout the tournament because they update.

Alix Harris (57:19.55)
I still may change my pics in the next 24 hours. I'm just saying. I reserved the right t-t-

Drew (57:43.884)
the ratings and stats and everything throughout. That being said, so teams that make the final four typically have a top 25 adjusted offense and top 25 adjusted defense. Those teams that qualify, Arizona, Yukon, Purdue, Auburn, Creighton, Marquette, North Carolina, and Houston. And then in terms of teams that win the championship, they must have a top 20 adjusted offense and defense.

and teams that qualify, Arizona, Yukon, Auburn, Houston. So, and then there's this other one too that's a little bit more complicated to follow, but I'll try and do my best to make it quick. So this is courtesy of Visen on the Sharp Money podcast, or not Sharp Money podcast, on the numbers game podcast, Kill Alexander. Shout out to him. Anyways.

So it's the last 33 champs have also had more assists than turnovers. 31 of the last 33 champs have had a head coach with Sweet 16 experience, except for the 2014 UConn team that had Shabazz Napier. And then also last year's UConn team with Dan Hurley. And then you have 27 of 28 teams went to the tournament with at least

three wins versus teams in the top 10% of RPI. Only exception, again, okay, stop. And then again, the only exception is 2014 UConn team with Shabazz Napier. And then the last 28 champs have also had a top 75 strength of schedule. And then 20 out of the last 21 champs were in the top 20 in adjusted offense.

Alix Harris (59:15.284)
NC State.

Drew (59:39.128)
per Ken Palm and also top 20 in adjusted defense per Ken Palm. Again, the only exceptions, 2014 UConn team, which has an APR, they were 39th in off adjusted offense. And then you have the 2021 Baylor Bears who were 22nd in adjusted defense. So all of that being said, teams that qualify are going to be the Houston Cougars, the UConn team,

Again, there might be another exception. And then Arizona and Auburn. So Houston, Yukon, Arizona, Auburn qualify for that as well as the championship which is top 20 offense and top 20 defense. So it's got to be one of those four teams.

Alix Harris (01:00:28.142)
and

Alix Harris (01:00:31.927)
You have.

Drew (01:00:33.628)
and I'm going with Houston. I think I'm going with Houston, the Cougars over, Houston over Auburn in a barn burner. It's probably gonna be a super low scoring game because Houston doesn't know how to do anything else. And I just think that, you know, you know me Alex, you know I do this every year. And I just think, you know, they're coming in.

Alix Harris (01:00:39.658)
Oh my god.

Alix Harris (01:01:02.044)
bro

Drew (01:01:02.968)
where they have low expectations because they just got their doors blown off by Iowa State. And as we know, you want to fade teams that have just won, well, not the overall number one seed, that is UConn, that is number one overall seed. And we like to fade those teams. But then also, hold on, hold on. We also have the fact that they didn't win the conference championship, which is a good spot for...

Alix Harris (01:01:10.542)
still coming in as the number one seed.

Alix Harris (01:01:17.294)
Okay.

Drew (01:01:26.484)
teams to be backed because you want to fade those teams that win conference championships, Ergo, NC State, and Ergo, UConn. Granted, UConn is a juggernaut and I think it's either going to be between Auburn or UConn that goes to the championship there, but I'm taking the chance and taking Auburn that makes it. So that is my case for Auburn and Houston in the championship and Houston is going to win it all.

Alix Harris (01:01:54.946)
I love North Carolina because I always wanted to go there Michael Jordan all this kind of stuff like that So I just have a homer pick with North Carolina I have no idea what drew his affiliation with Houston They may be having this man with some under the table stipend or NIL deal something like that going on for what I don't know Because I don't know what you're going for them but like I could understand if like well USC isn't good and he talks about them trying to squeak into the know but

Drew (01:02:04.517)
I'm sorry.

Alix Harris (01:02:17.75)
I have no idea what your obsession is with Houston. And all they do is hurt you every single year, Drew. North Carolina's won me championships. They've won me NCAA tournaments and brackets and monies and all that kind of stuff. What has Houston done for you, Mr. Moore, besides disappointment?

Drew (01:02:21.674)
and

Drew (01:02:32.488)
I mean, you know, they've always been a solid team and they just, yeah, and on paper, they always have a solid team. And I respect a team that locks down on defense and they have small guards. It's a homer pick in a sense because most of their guards are like sub six foot. And that's just a great thing. Seeing those guys out there, get buckets, step back, in your mouth, pause, bucket, you know what I mean? So I just think that granted, granted.

Alix Harris (01:02:34.062)
They're just like Purdue except they can make the championship. But.

Drew (01:03:01.256)
there will be a scoring drought. They will go five, 10, 15 minutes without scoring. But they will make sure that the other team doesn't score either. So I think that at times their games can be a rock fight, but ultimately sometimes you gotta win it dirty. And I think Houston is a great team that has a great coach, sweet 16 experience, final four experience, and arguably should have had a couple more championships over the past few years, but.

Um, you know, no time like the present.

Alix Harris (01:03:37.602)
Fair enough. So hypothetically speaking, you have Auburn upsetting UConn. If UConn does be Auburn and continues on, would you then change your pick or would you still have Houston if it were to be UConn and Houston in the championship?

Drew (01:03:51.2)
Still Houston.

Alix Harris (01:03:54.038)
Okay, fair enough. I mean, I think they're the elite defensive team in the tournament.

Drew (01:03:55.217)
Gotta stay loyal.

Granted, I was gonna say, granted, like the guard matchups kind of scare me against UConn because their guards aren't just like guards, like they're just, they're big mo. You know what I mean? Like, so that is concerning for sure. But you know, I mean, once it's locked in, it's locked in, you know, so. Yeah.

Alix Harris (01:04:07.168)
Exactly.

Alix Harris (01:04:12.137)
Mm-hmm.

Alix Harris (01:04:24.782)
Fair enough, I think that, you know, they're an elite defense, but I think that they are going to run into some very high offensive power juggernaut teams in this in this tournament as soon as you get to the elite eight. And if some teams eventually are able to score on them, they do. Like you said, they have trouble scoring sometimes. But I mean, fair enough. I mean, I have them in my championship, so it's not like I'm super opposed to the pick.

Drew (01:04:49.605)
Mm-hmm. Absolutely.

Alix Harris (01:04:51.17)
Fair enough. Well, we can move on to the women's NCAA. For this one we are going to name our final four teams unless you do have Cinderella story that you want to get into. We can name our final four teams and our champions for that as well. So, who do you want to go first?

Drew (01:05:10.392)
I mean, the only real thing I wanted to mention as like a maybe a little bit of a Cinderella story, but not really. Typically in the women's side of the bracket, they don't have too many double-digit seeds that go too far. However, I am looking at Tennessee to make a pretty good run this year because granted they're also, they run into a problem where they have to go up against Stanford. But

At the same time, I do think that Tennessee has shown that they can play with the big gals and they should have honestly ended up winning the championship against or should have ended up winning that game against South Carolina. But then, you know, they had a bank three point shot to lose the game. But ultimately, I do think that, you know, just the program as a whole has always been solid as we know. But they're long, they're lengthy. They can shoot.

and they can also guard one through four. And I think that's the biggest thing is not only having a team that can light up the world, but also having a team that is willing to play defense, whereas teams like Iowa, they don't play a lick of defense. So that's one of the reasons why I like Tennessee to go pretty far, but then they run into the big problem that is Stanford and that's, you know.

Alix Harris (01:06:33.614)
I'm going to say you have them beat in Stanford too.

Drew (01:06:36.552)
No, yeah, no, that's where their journey ends. But making it to, what is that, the Sweet 16? So I feel like that's a pretty solid run for them, especially because they had what they would consider a down year. And I do think that they'll end up beating Green Bay, which has been an underrated team, who's also been pretty solid. That game might be actually kind of close. But then they'll also take on NC State, and I think that they'll beat the number.

Alix Harris (01:06:42.924)
Yeah.

Alix Harris (01:07:03.862)
over NC State as well.

Drew (01:07:05.892)
Yep, you would love NC State. Maybe you get in some NIL deal or something. But yeah, I think that they're going to get the job done. Make it to Sweet 16.

Alix Harris (01:07:09.066)
Apparently, apparently.

Alix Harris (01:07:20.59)
Fair enough, fair enough. What's the final four?

Drew (01:07:25.5)
Yeah, so for the Final Four, I have... So it was kind of tough on the... In Region One that has South Carolina and also Oregon State in there, but I ended up going with South Carolina because I mean, you know, like, yeah. They're, yeah.

Alix Harris (01:07:50.358)
Mm-hmm.

Drew (01:07:54.184)
But then also, I have them going up against Stanford. Now, hold on here, because everybody get a little crazy in there. But, so South Carolina matching up against Stanford there, and that matchup, and then we have UCLA going against USC in a PAC-12 showdown. And, or, yeah, right, no, I'm saying wrong things here. Nope, that's correct. Carry on. USC going against UCLA in a PAC-12.

Alix Harris (01:08:22.986)
Interesting.

Drew (01:08:24.464)
showdown. I think that USC, while they have been solid the whole season, I do think that Juju is able to carry them. And sometimes that's what it takes is just having that one player carry you all the way through. But it's not just Juju that's been shining in these games. The last game that they played against Stanford, they also had, they call them the nerds or the Ivy League gals.

that they got from the music Brown, Princeton, and like the Harbor Reel. And they got these gals where they, they get buckets. Ford, I believe it was last game, ended up dropping like 30. And I mean, if you just watch, watch that game against Stanford, they, she was just in rhythm, like stepping up, pulling up, looking like Kevin Durant out there in, in the, in the finals against LeBron. It's just.

ridiculous, like she was a bucket. So I think that, you know, having other alternatives when Juju is not able to get her shot up, or you know, maybe she has off night or whatever, I think that that's gonna be important going forward. And having that depth as opposed to just relying on one player, Ergo, Iowa, I think that is gonna be important going forward. And then UCLA, they've been solid all season where they...

they thrive is on the defensive end. And I think that overall on the defensive end, that'll end up carrying them through past Iowa and also past LSU, which is a pretty.

Alix Harris (01:10:02.922)
I was saying that was a little surprising to me, you have them beating both of them. Back to back. Mm-hmm.

Drew (01:10:06.308)
Yeah, that's a pretty tough bracket. Yeah. Um, and I mean, I think that, you know, uh, a really good game to kind of circle and highlight is going to be the, the rematch between, uh, Louisville and LSU. Um, you know, like you got, you got players trading teams and everything. Uh, and then also the, the rematch between, well, what would have been the rematch if LSU, um, uh, ends up playing against, uh, Iowa if we ever, if we get that match up.

Alix Harris (01:10:24.942)
Mm-hmm.

Drew (01:10:36.664)
instead of UCLA, then I think that that'll be another rematch of last year's championship as well. So Yeah, that's my Final Four right now. What do you got?

Alix Harris (01:10:44.29)
Championship.

Alix Harris (01:10:51.719)
Yeah, I have I have LSU beat UCLA this week 16 so I do have a matchup of I won LSU in the Elite Eight. Mine is Chocke. I do have the number ones. I have the number ones. I couldn't go against Juju and I couldn't go against Caitlin Clark. So in the South Carolina I think it's a juggernaut. I do think that Texas is going to be.

Drew (01:11:03.44)
Unbelievable.

Alix Harris (01:11:15.615)
Stanford. So then in my final, I would have South Carolina versus Iowa and I do have South Carolina.

Drew (01:11:23.04)
I don't know. I mean, it's gross. But I mean, I also, you know, Virginia Tech can be one of those things, can be one of those teams that can make a deep run. But also, Virginia Tech can be one of those teams where they can be out in maybe the second round. I don't think they'll get out in the first round, but in the second round for sure. Because they have Elizabeth Kintling, who's their star player who's injured right now. And I believe she's like third in the league, or I would say the league.

third in college in scoring in the WNBA, or women's, on the women's side of it. Already going to the WNBA. But yeah, third in scoring. And if you don't have a gal that's third in scoring, I mean, good luck with the offense. Cause if you've seen them play without it, it's, it looks like what Houston looks like sometimes where it's just a rock fight. And, you know, I just think that when they get to playing against Baylor,

Alix Harris (01:11:54.378)
Yeah, same.

Alix Harris (01:11:59.284)
Huh.

Drew (01:12:22.008)
with their experience in the tournament, I think that that's going to ultimately prevail over them. But then also with the, you know, your Iowa and LSU matchup and stuff, I think that I do like LSU more in that matchup because last year, when Iowa, or last year Iowa had Monica Sonato and then also McKenna Warnock and both of them are gone.

So not having those post players down low are gonna leave Iowa vulnerable to, yeah, to any kind of matchup against size. And you saw that against Ohio State whenever, Cody McMahon, whenever she was playing against them, granted, you know, they split the series, but also they got one of them. And the main way that they got it was because of Cody McMahon. And then also I forgot the other guy's name too.

Alix Harris (01:12:56.498)
Mm-hmm the size. Yeah

Drew (01:13:21.16)
but she's more of like a stretch five though. So yeah, I think that's an interesting matchup you have there, but ultimately what I end up having here is a matchup between UCLA and South Carolina. And I have UCLA, or sorry, I have South Carolina cutting down the nets. No, I'm not crazy, I'm not crazy. Yeah, no, no.

Alix Harris (01:13:43.074)
I was about to say like, oh, okay. That's what I was like, okay. Little blockbuster. Okay.

Drew (01:13:50.908)
I mean, they haven't won in what, like two years. Like it's, you know, it's hard to pick against a team that hasn't won. And then also the way that they win and they, and they have so much depth, like one through five, and then also one through 10. You know, so I just think that it's going to be ultimately too much for UCLA to overcome. While the Bruins will have made a good run, I think that it'll all be for not. And everybody's just playing for second place at this point. So, yeah.

Alix Harris (01:14:01.694)
Yeah, it's convincingly, yeah.

Alix Harris (01:14:21.902)
So you would have UCLA beaten LSU, Iowa, and USC? Back to back to back. Okay. If they do that, then I would be going into that championship game with all the confidence where I'm like, no, we win in this game. That would be like the ultimate way to close out a tournament. Fair enough? Fair enough. So anything else that you wanted to get into today?

Drew (01:14:29.308)
Yep.

Drew (01:14:36.632)
I'm sorry.

Drew (01:14:41.534)
Yeah.

Drew (01:14:47.925)
No, I believe that's everything.

Alix Harris (01:14:50.83)
There we go. There we go. Well, thank you for listening, everybody. This has been the Colley Shop podcast. Your host, Alex Harrison, drew more. Make sure you are following us on Instagram and you check out our YouTube. Make sure you give us a like and comment and you can hear us wherever you can hear with our tournament. Huh?

Drew (01:15:01.773)
Actually, I want...

Drew (01:15:07.228)
I lied. I got one more thing here. I wanted to, for the guys, I wanted to highlight this last trend here that I forgot to bring up. Okay, no. But the Mountain West Conference, we may think that they got snubbed having all these super low seeds, even though they were able to get 16s in, which is borderline ridiculous. But along with that.

Alix Harris (01:15:10.818)
For the girls, the guys.

Alix Harris (01:15:16.949)
NC State.

Alix Harris (01:15:33.641)
It was very impressive.

Drew (01:15:35.604)
Yeah, which, you know, when I tell you this, it's gonna blow your mind. So, in terms of Mountain West teams that are an eight seed or worse, they are three and 32 straight up, and five and 28 and two since 2003.

Drew (01:15:57.008)
You're telling me that when you're an eight seed or lower in the Mountain West, you are three and 32 straight up since 2003, and you're gonna give them six teams that are in the tournament. Granted, they're not all obviously eight seed or lower. Well, yeah, exactly. And so that's where I was like conflicted with New Mexico, especially with them winning the tournament.

Alix Harris (01:16:16.642)
something's got to give.

Mm-hmm.

Drew (01:16:25.584)
And I was like, well, we'll just see what happens here. But at the same time, you have Nevada. And I also like Nevada because they're going against Dayton. And Dayton shouldn't even be the tournament either. And then you have Boise State as well. So I mean, if Boise State isn't making it, that is. So you have all of these trends, all these stats. And again, all of that to say, trends don't pay the rent, but they sure do tell a damn good story.

Also one last side note, Utah State won in 19 straight up in the last 20 appearances in the tournament. So best of luck.

Alix Harris (01:17:07.47)
There we go. And also for those of you that do follow us on Instagram, you can check that out to see our links. If you want to join our match, our March madness bracket for the men or women, we both have brackets for each of those. So that would be pretty fun and interactive thing for everybody as well. So.

Drew (01:17:21.536)
And I'll, and I'll, uh, I'll put up a link to, um, these stats and trends and everything, and then we can follow it throughout the tournament and see kind of what ends up coming to fruition and what didn't, so on and so forth. Kind of track it that way.

Alix Harris (01:17:37.302)
There we go. So if we film it next, I believe it would be sometime next week. So we would be into the suite 16 going into the suite 16. So yeah, anything else you got, Drew?

Drew (01:17:47.133)
Mm.

Drew (01:17:50.86)
Um, that's everything I, uh, you know, I plan on bringing home the championship. Um, like I always do. And so, uh, yeah, I mean, again, just like, I feel like, I feel like South Carolina and the women's bracket, you know, everybody else is just playing for second place, really. Um, and so, you know, I. Please join, but just know that you're playing for second place.

Alix Harris (01:17:58.336)
Mm. Cap.

Alix Harris (01:18:12.878)
I mean, they all have all your picks on record as well.

Drew (01:18:16.432)
Yeah, and you'll see, you'll see. I'll be the first person to catch lightning in a bottle.

Alix Harris (01:18:21.078)
Okay, okay, fair enough. We will see you all next week.

Drew (01:18:26.857)
Peace.

Alix Harris (01:18:31.35)
Oh, Drew.

Alix Harris (01:18:35.835)
We have drama.