NFL 6 Week Review: NFC

On this episode of the Call Your Shot Podcast, the guys take a deep dive into the NFC, analyzing the Washington Commanders' surprise run, the Eagles' inconsistencies, and the Cowboys' struggles. They also cover the Vikings' unexpected success and the Lions' explosive offense. Drew and Alix discuss Baker Mayfield's MVP-level play with the Buccaneers, the Saints' and Panthers' setbacks, and how injuries are affecting the 49ers and Rams. Tune in for predictions on Week 7 and key betting insights for the upcoming matchups this weekend!

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to the Call Your Shot Podcast
00:25 NFC East Surprises: The Washington Commanders
05:05 Eagles' Performance and Playoff Prospects
10:35 Dallas Cowboys: Struggles and Identity Crisis
13:30 New York Giants: Daniel Jones and Defensive Strength
15:25 NFC North Overview: Vikings' Unexpected Success
22:08 Detroit Lions: Offensive Powerhouse and Defensive Concerns
27:04 Green Bay Packers: A Confusing Season
30:57 Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams and Defensive Resilience
36:13 NFC South: Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers
39:01 Falcons vs. Saints: A Reality Check
41:10 Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers' Surprising Season
45:21 Panthers' Struggles and the Rise of Andy Dalton
49:39 NFC West: 49ers' Injuries and Future Prospects
52:33 Seahawks: Inconsistencies and Upcoming Challenges
58:56 Cardinals: A Lost Season?
01:01:51 Rams: Injuries and Missed Opportunities
01:06:33 Week 7 Picks and Predictions

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Transcript

Drew (00:00.088)
Welcome to the Collier Shop Podcast, your weekly sports recap podcast where we break down the hottest headlines, dissect the latest injuries, and serve up our own hard hitting analysis of the past week in sports. But that's not all. We're not just here to talk about the past. We're here to predict the future as well. On the Collier Shop Podcast, we boldly predict the outcomes of the upcoming week's games.

Going to the NFC, we talked to Don the Eagles, we can go to the NFC East as we talked about, probably the surprise of the league when it comes to, or one of the surprises, I guess there's been a lot of kind of underdogs that ended up kind of being the top. But you have the Washington commanders who have looked great. Jaden McDaniels not only is the front runner for a rookie of the year, but is probably a top three to five MVP candidate, has looked great for the team. And this is a team that we're like, okay, they lost a lot of weapons because they traded to Han.

John Dotson and all that kind of stuff. it's just Terry McLaurin and Zacher. So we didn't think that they'd be able to do too much in that, but they've looked great. It's been super efficient. Been one of the highest scoring teams in the league and their defense has still been giving up a good amount of points, but it's basically like a shootout and Jay McDaniels has been basically cooking people. So they've looked great. Any thoughts on the commanders real quick? mean, the offense is great. defense is like, yep.

I don't want say historically bad, they're they're not not it. They're they're pretty, pretty bad. And we kind of saw what happens when they run into a team that can actually, you know, keep up with them with the with the Ravens, they did with the Ravens week. Beat the Bengals. Yeah. Yeah. To where

You they can they can put up points with the best of them. They can score, you know, and all day every day doesn't matter. But if the defense isn't going to stop a nosebleed, then like, you know, that's going to be a problem going forward. And if you want to be if you want to take your game up to the next level and you want to be a contender, then you're going to need to be able to have at least a middle of the pack team to where you can not just play in these games that are

Drew (02:18.51)
you know, 40 to 45 and you know, 35 to 37 and stuff like that. So Jayden McDaniels, I mean, I don't want to be a prisoner at the moment, but I've always loved him, always been a fan of his. I have been critical about Caleb Williams and so far I've been mostly correct, especially because the games where he-

Look who they're playing sir. The games where he you know, he's always throwing for 300 yards. Okay, Caleb Williams always throw for all these touchdowns. my god. This is so amazing. my god. Okay, it's against the Rams. Nobody out there. They're playing with a JV high school team out there. Players you never heard of. We made him look like Caroline. But against Carolina, who does Carolina have on their defense? I can't name anybody on the defense other than JC Horn.

Okay, and then they have Jacksonville who's given up 400 yards to just about every team except for one so like I'm you know They Caleb Williams Trash our we're not even in that division yet You're talking about I'm just saying he's good

Caleb Williams. Yeah, same thing. Yeah, Caleb Williams, he's going to be good. But yeah, Jadon McDaniels probably is the clear front runner. I agree with you. Offense is great. Defense is trash. But I mean, I feel like they're ahead of schedule. I don't think that the commanders honestly had many expectations. I think that they thought that they're going to be a playoff team coming into the season. I feel like they're ahead of schedule. Jadon McDaniels looks very NFL ready. And yeah, I think they've looked great so far.

I can't really ask for much more. was gonna say one last thing about their defense. You know, I'm take a ballpark guess of what percentage of plays whenever a team gets into the red zone that they convert into a touchdown. Against the commanders? Yeah, against the commanders. 62. Close, 70%.

Drew (04:34.574)
Basically, if you get within the 20 yards, 70 % chance you're going to score. Only teams that are worse than them, the Cowboys, who just go 40 piece, the Panthers, we know who the Panthers are, and then the Jaguars. They give up 76 % of a bread zone touchdowns. So I'm just saying, it's not pretty back there.

So moving on, have the Eagles who are sitting at three and three in the division. or three and two, actually, I don't know what to think about the Eagles because like on one hand, like I feel like they've had some good wins. They beat obviously the Packers when Jordan love and their whole team is healthy, but then they have the basically choke job against the Falcons. and then they're just like squeaking out these victories. So the wins that they do have, they beat the Packers by five, they beat the saints by three.

And then they beat the Browns last week by four and we already know what the Browns are. I feel that, you know, it's a combination of, know, they haven't had AJ Brown. They had to have AJ Brown or Devante Smith against the Buccaneers. So I kind of, you know, chop that scrap that one. but you know, still have Saquon and now you have Saquon, have AJ full healthy allotment of players. So I feel like they're going to be fine going forward. Three of their next four games, I feel like are very winnable. have the Giants, the Jaguars and

I don't know the Bengals I guess you could say is just depending on how they go forward. I mean I still am confident that the Eagles can still win this division. But do you have any hesitations and with choosing them possibly to make the playoffs or do you feel like they're going to be fine?

I that was my Superbowl pick, wasn't it? Okay. E-A-G-L-E-S Eagles! Eagles can't score. I mean, look, our problem isn't scoring, right? Our problem is stopping teams on defense. And the fact that the Brown...

Drew (06:48.152)
The back of the Browns weren't able to do really anything on offense just shows you what kind of state that they're in right now. But as far as the Eagles go in terms of a team as a whole, know, Nick Sarriani is ruffling some more feathers as he does. And I'm a chopping block angle. Yeah. And when he I guess when he did that last year, we started like barking at folks after the

after the game against the Chiefs, they went like two and six or something like that to close out the season. So hopefully that doesn't happen. coincidentally, that timeframe also matched up with them playing through a whole gauntlet of teams on short rest and on some crazy travel schedule last year. And then the back half of the season, they kind of just fell apart because of injuries, to hurts and stuff like that.

They're healthy right now. They're doing better other than, you know, Goddard, whatever. But, you know, at the same time, their run game is still dominant. You still can't stop the tush push. Anytime they're within, you know, one to two yards, we already know it's going to be converted. now the AJ back. They're averaging 17 points per game since week one. Shut up.

okay. And I mean, you know, am I worried? No, man. I'm not worried. Scale of 10, 10 being press the panic button zero being kick my feet up in Cabo. Well, I'll, I'll say like, a four. There's

moderate concern For sure a couple beads of sweat. Yeah But you know, I I'll go back into the sauna and I'll still cook though, you know, I okay, they're not a runaway I think they'll be fine. I agree with you. I think they will be fine. I do not know one thing real quick, too Is that again playing the schedule game? It looks looks pretty nice going forward to bro

Drew (09:08.942)
Are you kidding me? that's what I said, two of their next three games that you win. I mean, the Bengals are no cakewalk. And then I still think that they have to play. Who is it that they play the commanders? The Cowboys are always a tough game. I don't know if the first game is at the Cowboys or at the or at the Cowboys. Like at this point, the Cowboys are are who they are right now. Like they are what their record is and they are with the stats to say they are right now. About the same as the Eagles.

stop. You're giving up 40 burgers to the Eagles haven't played the Lions. But like, yeah, there we go. So the Cowboys have been they got Molly absolute Molly walks by the Lions. It was bad. I watched that game and I was like, maybe they could get a stop here and it'd be like third and 13. And then Jared Goff would throw like a 60 yard touchdown to Jameson Williams. It's like, well, like, they can't stop anybody.

They can't run the ball. They had the one game against the Giants would be like, this is our, you know, this is our stop here. You know, we're going to become here, get our identity back and run the ball. then since then it's still, it's still been bad. And I think that's testament to the fact that obviously you had Michael Parsons get hurt. You had a whole bunch of injuries on the defensive line as well. But I mean, they made no improvements really to their defense or to their offense in the off season.

They didn't make no noise. Obviously this has been a big trade period over this past week. they're like, no, Mari Cooper used to be here. You're really good with a good tandem with the CD. Nah, don't want to you. Devante Adams. yeah. You're a hall of Famer. Nah, don't want you. And like, I mean, a lot of teams have kind of been bracketing CD and you know, Jalen Tolbert has kind of stepped up, as like a number two option. And then Ferguson's always been, you know, fi reliable tight end, but like they just aren't able to really move the ball consistently on,

Offense they don't really have a good identity and Dak Prescott's throwing interceptions and the defense is trash. So I mean I mean they look middle of the pack Yeah, and I mean Not not all of it is on Dak to be honest like Sure, you know he could he could be playing a little better. Yeah, sure, you know He's the highest paid player in NFL history, right? I'm just saying okay, but you know at the same time

Drew (11:34.766)
It's kind of hard to have a good passing game when you like if you're relying on your boy Rico Dowell for offense. I told you he was gonna leave them rushing, didn't I? you picked him up, didn't you? I tried anything for at least one. I one time.

You know, think that you picked him up and ended up going out like the way he went off. He had like 20 points or something like that. I was like, okay, that's bullshit. But yeah, and okay, but also, you know, with with all that too, the not only do they not have a running game and they have the corpse of Zeke's Zeke's of Zeke. Yeah, they they're they're offensive line is one of the worst in the league. And it's not looking like it's going to get any better anytime soon. They currently

have a pass protection grade of 52.2, that's 28th in the league. Only teams worse than that are the Patriots, the Browns, the Saints who have literally everybody hurt on their team, and the Rams who everybody got hurt on their team, and then those people that backed up those people got hurt as well. So it's basically like having me and you out there on the offensive line. Those are the only teams that are worse than the Cowboys there in that metric.

So yeah, it's not all on deck, but and the defense was already bad, but then obviously had the injury to Micah. You have the Marcus Lawrence on IR. I mean, Brandon Cooks is on IR. So I mean, like, it's not it's not great. You already obviously had 31st out of 32 teams. Yeah, 31st out of 32 teams on defense. It ain't ain't too pretty.

and then lastly, we had the New York giants who, mean, they had, okay, I'll give them this. Obviously, I don't think that you should have paid Daniel Jones, the one 64 years ago, four years ago in choosing him over Saquon and all this kind of stuff. He's looked, he isn't look good at all by any means he's looked better this year. I think that's a testament to Malik neighbors. and to a lesser degree, like Wanda Robinson and,

Drew (13:58.376)
All of them, Darius Layton, but like Malik neighbors is the real deal. And obviously it was unfortunate. He was tearing up the league and ended up getting his concussion. So he's been out the past couple of weeks and hopefully he plays this week. but yeah, I think Malik neighbors is really nice. And when Malik neighbors is in the game, Daniel Jones actually looks like a competent quarterback to some degree. Yeah. They ain't winning no division. They ain't, they ain't coming close. They ain't having a winning record or anything like that. But I mean, I like watching Malik neighbors. So.

That's fair. And I mean, their defense actually has held up pretty well. They've been getting some decent amount of pressures on quarterbacks and stuff. But now there's talks about like, okay, well, now that everybody's starting to trade, now they're going to picking some pieces off them and these teams. so that aspect might be gone for them as well, we'll, I don't know, we'll see. We'll see what ends up happening whenever.

If these trades end up doing going down for some of these D linemen, but yeah Yeah, the defense actually been good. The defensive line has been good Dexter Lawrence is like I think like second in the league in sacks He's like seven So I think other than Aiden Hutchinson who has like seven and a half and obviously he's hurt now So I mean, I mean hey, but they're still the Giants so moving on to the NFC North who? Has the rare chance to be one of those rare divisions in the league that could possibly have all four teams make the playoffs

You have Minnesota Vikings who major surprise are undefeated. This is coming off of losing Kirk Cousins. This is coming off of J.J. McCarthy being out for the season. you you know who you know, you know who's running that ship though, right? Over in Minnesota, my boy Sam Donnell. You know what saying? Sam Donnell, Baker, Mayfield. never be a fan. I will never be a believer. I care what happened. He could win MVP. five and

We five and have you been good? They've been the 49ers. They've been the Texans They've beaten the Packers and if they beat the Lions this week, I mean like there's not much more that you can say Negative about the about about the Vikings and about Sam. I mean, okay, but the same time touchdowns, you know like I think y'all realize that how much aiden Hutchinson means to this team. I believe he Even if he

Drew (16:20.046)
If he misses, if he misses like the next two weeks, he'll still be leading the league in in in pressures. Like, yeah, I'm saying that like there's been there's other teams, there's other teams that we evaluate them. Like, obviously, the Chiefs been without like Pacheco and Rishi Rice. But if a team were to beat the Chiefs, they'd be like, wow, that's still a good win. 49ers without Christian McCaffrey, they've been without Debo. If somebody beats 49ers like damn, that's still a good win. But you're going to say that if the Vikings beat the Lions and they don't have Aiden Hutchinson, you're to be like, well.

I mean, she they were supposed to do that. What? That ain't fair. The next closest person to. I'm just saying who's who's who's more important to not. No, mean, no, go ahead. Go ahead, Mr. Harris. You have to say think that Christian McCaffrey from an offensive perspective, seen last year when he was offense player of the year is just as important than Aiden Hutchison, who is obviously the Lions best defensive player. But

We are still evaluating teams that beat or lose to the 49ers very highly. you know, the Lions just Mollie Watt, the Cowboys and Aiden Hutchinson didn't play that full game. I mean, like shoot, if the Vikings win, I'm still going to be impressed. The next closest person to Aiden Hutchinson in terms of total pressures is Nick Bosa, who has 35, whereas Aiden Hutchinson has 45. So.

Why don't we got him? Why don't those all sack? We just talked about extra Lawrence. He's only a he's only half a sack behind the man. I mean, it depends on where you look. I mean, they they're tied on PFF. So but so so you're not going to be so do you have the Vikings winning this week against the Lions? Since it's what should happen, right? Because, know, well, see, you know, the Lions are going to be without Aaron Donald. So let me see what my model has here.

I mean, I have the Lions winning this week, but I don't know, man. Other than the Chiefs, I think you could even argue, I feel like the Vikings have had the toughest schedule in the NFL and are one of the only two undefeated teams in the league. And this is without them having TJ Hockinson.

Drew (18:43.404)
This is without them having Jordan Addison for a couple of games. This is without them having Aaron Jones for a game. But I mean, this is I'm not saying that like Sam Donald has been the reason why I think he's been a great game manager. Their defense has been absolutely insane. And Brian Flores, like people like who is it? Brock Purdy has talked about it. CJ Strauss talked about it like the defensive schemes that they have on defense have like been disgusting and they've actually.

It's been great and Sam Donald's also been very good if we if we look at the teams though that like they played You know the Giants we know who the Giants are the 49ers. Okay. Yeah, the 49ers are a solid team, but they had literally nobody out there They didn't even have Debo. They barely had That was the game that Debo got hurt at the end, but he finished the game. Okay, whatever but didn't have Texans That Texans yeah, that's it. That's a nice win

But at the same time, didn't have Joe Mixon. So they were running with Dario Gumbuale or whoever else the hell they had out there. don't even know half their running back. So you're saying all other ones are fugazi because they haven't played a team that's been fully healthy. Exactly. The Packers. Jordan Love was just coming off of his knee injury there. And then the New York Jets, they were still playing games and they didn't even know

what their offense was looking like. They're playing with the coach that they just fired. So I'm just saying like, and well, for one as well too, the, the jets have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, which also doesn't help the case. same thing with the, Texans, who also have a terrible offensive line, which dampened their overall office production. I'm just like, I'm just, I'm just, I'm for Sam. I'm just saying, I'm just happy for Sam. I ain't go like,

I think that this is going to be, if I had to choose between this being like, the Vikings are just like actually legit and they could go to the super bowl or it's going to be more of the season that they had a couple or a few seasons ago. Maybe I don't remember what player was that with Kirk when they went like 13 and four randomly, but then lost to the giants as a wild, like the giants wild card giants in the first round. I feel like it's closer to that one, but I mean, we're going to enjoy the ride while it's a while it's going on. So happy for you, Sam.

Drew (21:10.158)
Yeah, get your bag. You know saying anyway, the Dolphins are not dolphins the lions who are second in the division Well, I was gonna say one thing like I'm probably gonna stay away from this game in general because It it just screams a trap. I get it. It's got to be a trap kind of Screams 303 touchdowns from Sam but you know the lion again 70 % of the bets

Like I, I just they just saw the Molly walk the Cowboys and the people are like, the Vikings aren't legit. Yeah. And that's the thing. So like my, even though my model has it, has the, has the lions by four. it's not, it's not a play, on, the Vikings plus four against you. That's fine. I'm not playing that. The model doesn't say to play it. So I'm not playing it. God damn it. Fair enough. So

The Detroit Lions obviously you talked about it came off the huge win against the Cowboys. They've been great. They kind of had the who was there one lost to the season they had the loss of the Buccaneers in week two that was still a very close game. Yeah, but they've been great. They've been obviously the dynamic do Dave Montgomery ended up getting a contract extension. It's been a great one to punch with him and Jameer Gibbs. A lot of people were hoping you know for fantasy purposes that Jameer Gibbs would kind of

take more of a primary role in the running back backfield, but it's literally been a one-two punch and they've had very similar stats and it doesn't seem like they're going to try to veer away from the thunder lightning approach anytime soon. Amara has been great and it's really kind of been the, emergence of Jameson Williams. We've both talked about it, going into the preseason. Is he going to be able to take that step forward? And he really has stepped up. So now you have him, Amara, Laporta, the running backs.

I mean, it's a nasty offense. Obviously the loss of Aiden Hutchinson on defense is going to hurt a lot, but I feel like this team honestly can outscore anybody on any given day. So, I mean, I think the Lions are going to be a major contender in the NFC again. Yeah. And, you know, like regardless of, you know, who they end up, like putting out there, honestly, it just seems like their, their chemistry of that team is

Drew (23:36.864)
is more than I mean, yeah, more than talent, but it definitely helps the talent that they have around the guys. And I think that that's what helps them kind of plug and play certain players. And that's that's kind of like the lion's identity of the team. Right. It's like, you know, a bunch of blue guys, blue collar guys out there that are going to play hard. Yeah. so like in my on my model, like I have the Lions ranked as the number one team right now. I'll have to like

adjusted a little bit because of, you know, lots of Ada Hutchinson and everything. But now I think it's hilarious to this is all based on, you know, stats and everything. There's no bias in here at all. And the interesting thing is that number two team right now is the Vikings. So in terms of matching up with like the like win percentages and matching up with overall performance so far, like

Yeah, statistically makes sense that the Vikings, you know, they're undefeated. I have my number two team. the lions are really should be undefeated, but there's a lot of suspect calls in that game. and it, you know, could have gone either way, but here we are. That's crazy. Is this just the conference or is this like this in the NFL? NFL. your model has the Vikings over the chiefs at this current moment or something? Yeah. I mean, if if you look at what the chiefs have done,

so far this season, they've more so escaped games with wins as opposed to one games. So I wouldn't necessarily say that like if Super Bowl was today and it was the Lions against the Chiefs, I'd probably 100 % take the Lions without blinking. I'd probably blink a couple times in this patch for my homes. I definitely take the Lions.

over the Chiefs. Now, that being said, if Juju is going to turn back the clock, if Kareem Hunt is all of a sudden, you know, the 2016 version or whatever year that was of himself and then Aiden Hutchinson is gone and then they don't have anybody else that can rush the passer, sure, know, they still have, they have Branch back there and Secondary and stuff and I love him too. But I'd, you know, I'd have my

Drew (26:05.42)
hesitations for sure. But I got to see a larger sample size from from the Chiefs other than it's it's my homes. It's it's Andy Reid. It's Travis Kelsey. Like they're just going to do it. Like that's that's not it hasn't been like them. Like it's been like the fact that they've lost so many people offensively. Patrick Mahomes has not been anywhere close to what we expect from Patrick Mahomes, but they're still winning these games because their defense is like elite. And at the end of the day in a clutch situation, even Patrick Mahomes is playing bad.

If I'm like in a two minute drive or if I need a game winning field goal, I see. Yeah. All in on Patrick Moe's. But I mean, that's not necessarily like a statistic that you can argue for why they should be better. That's just like, well, chips are on the table playoff wise. Yeah. I'll give it to my homeboy any day. Don't care. But that's fair enough about the Lions. So Green Bay sitting at four and two third in the division tied with the Bears. I don't.

I don't know how to feel about Green Bay. Jordan Love obviously battled through the injuries and Malik Davis ended up going 2-0. So Jordan Love is 2-2 as a starter for Green Bay this season. So they're 4-2 overall. Great wide receiver core, great young wide receiver core. Josh Jacobs still been the thumper for them, hasn't necessarily been hyper efficient, but he's not known to be. Their defense has been good. But I mean, don't know. I just...

I feel, think we both talked about it a few weeks ago. Like I don't, I don't know. I just don't have great faith in the pack. I don't think that they're, I don't know. I don't think they're all that great. I don't, I don't know what it is. There's no specific reason. Their offense is good. Their defense is good. They have a good running game. They have great young receivers, but I mean, I don't know. Yeah. I mean, I don't, I don't like it either. Honestly, like it shouldn't, it shouldn't work.

Like what they're doing shouldn't work. But then I'm not sure if it's like, that's able to, you know, make the engine run or like what it is. But, you clearly start to the season though. They've had four, they've had, said, they've had a pretty cupcake schedule to start the two teams, the two actual good teams being the Packers are being the Eagles and the Vikings are the two teams that they lost to. But then they played the Colts with, with,

Drew (28:30.142)
Anthony Richardson, they played the Titans with Will Levis. They played the Rams who would decimate it. And then they played the Cardinals who didn't even have Marvin Harrison Jr. because he got concussed. I mean like, you next schedule game. No, but you said that the Vikings, the Vikings actually played good teams. they these aren't good. The Titans aren't a good team. The Colts aren't a good team. The Rams with nobody in the wider secret room aren't a good team.

Cardinals without Marvin Harrison Jr. are not a good team. So yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's the crazy thing though, too. It's like, you know, that's where stats can be misleading and stuff too. It's the pass blocking for the Packers right now is number one in the league. And in terms of EPA per play, that's taken away by SACS. They're number one in terms, which means that like

They're not allowing any pressures to dictate some of Jordan loves throws. So he's able to just sit back there, pat the ball. Okay, who's open? Dobbs isn't open. Is Watson open back there? No, he just tore his other hamstring again. Like he's he's not open. Okay, let me look over here and look over here. Okay, let's just give it to Jayden Reed. Jayden Reed. I don't like how their 15 ride receiver just looks elite just randomly. I'm like, bro, how many y'all have? Dontavian Wicks, random.

And so, yeah, I don't get it. I don't understand their offense. It doesn't make any sense to me. Josh Jacobs, like, maybe he's good. Maybe he's not. I don't know. The whole team is just a mystery. But their offensive line is legit, Like, they want to do on offense, they're able to do because of the O line.

As long as that's the case, then they're going to be pretty successful against just by any team except for a handful of teams that can actually stop the run or stop the, or have a good secondary as well. If you go against the Ravens, then they're probably not going to fare all that well. However, if they play against the Seahawks, you're going to run all over them. It's going to be a bloodbath.

Drew (30:57.166)
Thanks. So finish up the division. have the Bears who are sitting at four and two. Caleb Williams has looked better each and every game and you know, just came off that London game where he had 300 yards and three, four touchdowns, something like that. I don't know. But I feel like the story for the Bears more so has been their defense. The defense is what's kept them in games. And I mean, I don't know. I mean, I feel like if Caleb Williams continues to improve, the defense stays elite. I don't know why they can't be a wild card team.

And they have a big game this week against the commanders. And then you have the battle of the rookies with Caleb and Jane Daniels. So, I mean, do you why do you hate the Bears? I don't understand. Yeah, we want bears like you know, why do you him? What did he do to you from USC? He's just not he's not it. You know, like, sure. You know, they're around the season. I want to overreact or anything like that. But

I mean, to be fair, I talked about this all throughout, like before the season started and during the season as well. both didn't say he was going to be Patrick Mahomes coming in. He ain't going to throw no 50 touchdowns. That's I'm saying. need to temper our expectations before we go and crown this man like the Messiah. I don't think that, okay. You know, don't think that he's, he's clearly, he's obviously not going to be like,

know, Deshaun Watson bad, but he's also Joe Montana or Patrick Mahomes or anything like that. Like he's, he's just a, a, your run of the mill quarterback right now. And they're, doing a pretty good job of giving them some pretty damn easy passes. Like he has an expected completion percentage of 68%. So like, I had hoped that he's completing some of these passes.

But at the same time, his success rate is only 46.2%. Meaning my weapons have been healthy. Yeah. My weapons ain't been fully healthy. I mean, we had the letter game where I can and Allen and doomsday and and and DJ more and call command and what happened. look who you played. Huh? I can only play who's on my schedule. so now is I can only lose on my schedule. OK, look at the matches. If he he if he laid an egg.

Drew (33:22.126)
Last week, I feel like you'd be you know, you'd be ripping into them if he laid a leg in flight wise, but it's good to get the Jaguars. You're like, that's what you're supposed to do. I don't know what you want. You keep playing you you play your game, Caleb. All right. Don't let people like Drew out here. You know, at the end of the day, you said you all care about wins you four and two. Somehow some way in this twisted universe in the NFC North foreign to his last place in the division. But don't worry about that.

any more thoughts. But in terms of, you know, when, quarterbacks are under, under pressure, PFF has this, has this stat where it shows a breakdown of, you know, what, ends up happening on that play? Like, do they, do you throw it away? Do you get sacked? Do scramble? What do do?

Drew (34:15.79)
Do you know who is second to last on that on that their stat there, sir? Your boy, Williams. Stupid stat. Whenever he's under pressure, only 44 % of the time, does he at least get a target onto a wide receiver or near a wide receiver? Well, I kind of like what we talked about before. Sometimes those targets like Deshaun Watson's targets aren't all created equally.

So, if only 44 % of those are quote unquote a target, that's little suspect I'm just saying. And of that too, know 7 % of that is scrambles, okay that's nice. 16 % is a sack, okay well that's also you know one of the highest in the league, second highest in the league actually, only to the Chiefs.

or sorry not sacks, throwaways. Only to the Chiefs there. In terms of sacks, he's even worse, 27%. And then finally, whenever it comes to batted balls and everything, 6%. Right below him is Washington. With Washington, no, it's 41 % of targets. Okay, that looks really bad. But you also have 33 % scrambles and we know what Jaden Daniels can do with his legs.

I'm just saying Jayden Daniels, lock it up. Ricky of the year. It's in the bag. I'm not going to, not going to over exaggerate and say, you know, MVP as well because Lamar is still doing Lamar things. but at the same time it's definitely, he's got chains. I would like to, so moving on to the NFC South, we have Atlanta.

who was able to get things turned around after their tough loss in the week one, sitting at the top of the division at four and two tied with the Buccaneers. The offense actually looks like an offense. Kirk has actually getting Drake London involved and is actually like a number one receiver. Pitts has been a little inconsistent, but he's actually gotten decent volume and Bichon Robinson's looked good. Hasn't necessarily been like the breakout season from Bichon that we thought we were going to have with utilization, but still been very good.

Drew (36:43.416)
They just had a win against the Panthers. Panthers aren't anything great, but prior to that, they did have an overtime win against the Buccaneers, which is why they have the tiebreaker against them right now. So that was a big win. I think the Falcons, obviously, I think they're going to be a playoff team. I think that they, I really like the Buccaneers too. That's the thing though, too. And I really honestly feel like the Buccaneers probably should have won that game against the Falcons, but they've, hey, when it's prime time, Kirk Cousins has been, Kirk Cousins has been solid.

He'd been eaten. He had the prime time come back against the Eagles. He had the comeback drive against the Buccaneers and like, mean, hey, Kerco, doing Kerco things. So thoughts on the Falcons. You had them winning this division going forward at this point. And do you think that they could make any noise in the playoffs, potentially knocking off or upsetting the team? Yeah, I mean, that was, that was one of the teams that, I had a big, pretty big hopes on.

In the preseason one of the one of the three teams that I made preseason bets on to win the division. Get mainly because I just the Saints were going to be so bad. I was surprised that they won these first three games and then the Buccaneers. I'm you know, honestly, I'm surprised. I don't know why I'm surprised that there's still like doing this well.

They bake it, but would be a candidate. So like I wasn't, I wasn't expecting them to be playing this well and having Baker just, you know, be this, this dominant, as he has been, but at the same time with the Falcons, they started off slow, like real slow and Kirk, was looking like a statue back there and he was getting blasted on every, just by a rhythm for a second.

And but then, you you play against Philly, you get a W because Philly can't stop anything. against Kansas City, keep it close and respectable. Okay, know, things are turning around. Then you play against the Saints, have an offensive outburst, and that kind of got the ball rolling there. Granted, again, look at the schedule. The Saints.

Drew (39:01.716)
on defense. mean, the Saints were rolling high though. That was when the Saints were 2-0. We actually thought that they were going to be decent. The Falcons brought them back to reality. What happened since then?

Drew (39:12.716)
The Falcons brought them back to reality. Exactly. Like, okay. And then, and then they had Tampa Bay after that. Tampa Bay is middle of the pack defense, but at the same time they had a litany of injuries in the secondary, as well as the linebacking core and their heart and soul is within their linebacking core as well. They had, they got VitaVaya back that game, which limited the rushing.

for Bijan, but that was nothing for Kurt Cousins as he just lit it up out there. my beer. yards. Something light. And then he followed up that performance by playing against one of the worst secondaries and worst defenses in the league, that being the Carolina Panthers, where they, in terms of expected

EPA per play 0.147 EPA per play so not not exactly a Defense that you can say. wow, you know, we really figured out our offense now because since we beat this team like Sure, you know, you're putting of all this offense and everything. That's great But do it against an actual defense granted they get the Seahawks this this week

Again, not a great defense. And then they get Tampa Bay. So we already know what they did against them. And then they get Dallas, New York, or the Saints. And then they play against Denver. When they play against Denver, that'll be a good competition. I'll consider that one a serviceable matchup to test them. Will they probably beat them? Probably. Yeah, it'll probably be like, you know, five and a half, six point favorites. and actually it's at Denver. So maybe like four and a half.

five point favors depending on, how the rest of the season goes for Denver at that point. But yeah, anyways, fair enough. As we mentioned, also have the bucks in that four and two. yeah, I think that the, mean, I didn't necessarily expect the bucks to like Rick grass regress, but I didn't think that they were gonna, you know, have a chance to win the division. So, Baker Mayfield has been a borderline MVP candidate. I think it has a lot to do with like the reemergence of Chris Godwin. We both talked about it and moving back to the slot.

Drew (41:39.522)
what he was most commonly used to and what he basically had his breakout season when he was a sophomore. So he's been eating, has been soaking up targets from Baker Mayfield. Mike Evans, inconsistent, but still doing Mike Evan things when it comes to touchdowns, being a red zone monster. And then you also have Bucky Irvin, who's kind of been kind of like a decent running back compared to Rashad White, who has been very, very inefficient. Didn't play last week.

So I ended up having the Bucky Irving, me the number one running back, but you also had the rookie for them who apparently is also Barry Sanders because he had like 10 carries for 144 yards and a couple touchdowns. So just a little bit more electricity, a little bit more explosiveness. Rashad White, I feel like it's still going to be the lead back when he is healthy, but it's a little more tour. Yeah.

More towards that. So I think the Buccaneers are still gonna be a good team. I think that at this point I would probably still have them as a wild card team because I still think that they are going to probably be Yeah, I think they're gonna be like a nine and eight type team So do you have any different thoughts on the Buccaneers going forward or do feel like they're gonna eventually start to fall off a little bit more and Baker's gonna come back to earth as you mentioned you talked about the other schedule but they play the Falcons the Chiefs the 49ers the Giants the Panthers so the next three games is tough yeah and

I mean, that's wild thing too, is that last season they had a lot of luck going their way where they I believe they led the league in third down conversion percentage. This year, they're currently second in third down conversions, over expected at 10.5 % only behind the Ravens at 10.6%. So literally a tenth of a percentage point and then they're back at number one again. And in terms of

trips to the red zone, they're one of the best teams at at least giving themselves a chance to get the ball in the end zone and they're also one of the best in terms of converting those chances as well. They're fourth right there in the league at 23 trips to the red zone per game. The main thing being their run game.

Drew (43:53.646)
If they can get their run game going, then that's going to be a very dangerous offense, especially with Baker Mayfield, like you said, playing at MVP caliber type level with a success rate of 50 or 53.4%. Number one in the league. Second person behind him is Lamar Jackson. Third person, Joe Burrow, fourth person, Patrick Mahomes. I think that's pretty good company to be in. I'm, you know, I'm just saying. Granted, they are giving them some pretty easy throws and there's a lot of yak.

be it to be had for this team, like he has a completion, expected completions percentage of 71.4%, which tells you that those are some pretty damn easy throws to make. and you should make those and he is, he has completions percentage of 71.3. So he's, you know, right along the line with that. and he's also, has one of the most shallow depths of, of, or one of the most shallow air yards too. So.

That's where that that you're at. So yeah, just give it to Chris Godwin and just let him run after catch up. Essentially is what they're doing. But yeah, again, it goes back to, you know, the running game and stuff. If they can if they can get that going. I'm, you know, not not crowning them or anything, but I'm saying that they have a pretty solid chance of being a contender late in the season, even if their defense is middle of the pack.

and they can get some guys back and healthy. think that they can make some real noise there in the playoffs because MVP Baker is back. Yeah, as long as they can maintain that offense. And like you said, I feel like the running game as they do kind of give the reins more to Bucky as opposed to Rashad. I feel like it's going to open up the offense more. And then as you mentioned, as they continue to get healthy from a defensive side of things, then they become kind of a dangerous team.

And if Baker gets hot going to the playoffs, it could be a scary thing. One other thing too, with I don't even remember the guy's name. Like he's not going to be relevant in a couple of weeks anyways. But they're rookie running back. Wasn't it like he, like going into the fourth quarter, he only had like three carries or something like that.

Drew (46:12.59)
And then yeah, into the fourth quarter. Look, you piss me off. ahead. But here it starts in this guy. don't know who he thinks he is, but. And I mean, just because he deserves his flowers. Sean Tucker. Yeah, Sean Tucker. Again, because of that performance, they went from 30 second in the league, 30 second or like 30 first or something like that in the league in terms of EPA per play all the way up to, believe, let's see here.

They are at fifth. Yeah. Man's had 14 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown and three receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown. Damn near 200 yards total offense from Sean Tucker. Just light work, you know? Also, that game was kind of weird too, because the Buccaneers are absolutely blowing out the Saints. I think they're almost like up by 21-0 and then the Saints literally rallied back to take the lead. And then the Buccaneers were like, okay, let me start trying again. And then they, you know,

ended up closing it out pretty handily. But I was like, well, hold on Spencer Rattler, what are you, what's going on here? They scored all their points in the second quarter. I was like, what is happening? So yeah. So saints touched them a few times. are Paz. Ooh, they thought that we were. So they've lost the last four in a row. Derek Carr is hurt. Probably not playing next or tomorrow. And then the Panthers are

the Panthers. We didn't really talk about it since but obviously Andy Dalton ended up taking over Bryce, Bryce Young, they ended up shelving him. I don't know what they're gonna do there. Because at that point, like I feel like that's just like a confidence thing. And like a mind frame, like how do you like get past that if you're Bryce Young, like, that's tough. So the Panthers offense actually looks decent.

With Andy Dalton, Deontay Johnson ended up getting a lot more volume. the running, I can't remember what's the running backs name for them. ended up being a lot more involved, a lot more efficient. Yeah. True. A Hubbard. they're supposed to get done with them. Brooks, I guess he was taken off, of the IR and he's supposed to potentially make his debut for this upcoming weekend. So, I mean, I guess a couple of things to look forward to if you're a Panthers fan, but yeah, not many high expectations for the saints or the Panthers for the season.

Drew (48:42.358)
Yeah, and I mean, I'll I'm still going to be still going to be sweating out my my Saints under seven and a half win total. I think it'd be I mean, if they started doing some crazy stuff again, like they were doing in beginning of the season. think you want a little root streak. mean, they got the Broncos and you who knows, maybe they could shock the charges and they got the Panthers and obviously the Falcons and you got the Browns and the Rams, then the Giants.

So I mean, hey, I haven't finished him with six wins. so like, you know, hopefully, hopefully that stays under. but yeah, I mean, as far as the Panthers go, I, you know, there was, there was no real expectation going into the season that they would really do anything, productive this season, especially with Bryce young under under center. I'm

I am still it is beyond me how they how they well actually I do know how they beat the the Raiders they had Andy Dalton. But even in that game, they they tried their hardest to give it away and and have the and have the Raiders win that game but they have it all hold on and now I you know I'm I'm

kind of struggling to see where they're going to get their next win. Like I on my preseason ratings and everything, I literally had them down for one win. like, obviously, they're, well, maybe not obviously, but maybe they'll win another game. But I am not sure when it might be against Denver. But other than that,

They're is not looking good and there's the schedule. yeah. So finishing out with the NFC West, it's been very weird division. The 49ers are currently sitting at the top at three and three as they just beat the Seahawks last week of Thursday Night Football. Obviously they've been battling three major injuries. Christian McCaffrey hasn't played all season. Dibo's been in and out of the lineup.

Drew (51:06.55)
Now you have Jordan Mason who ended up having a shoulder injury and is questionable for this upcoming game. But I mean, they just kind of feeling it right back. Cause Isaac Rendo like went in and they just got a smooth hundred yards for no reason. but yeah, they've been, I don't know. It's weird because like, feel like Brock party has been playing well. but they had some bad losses. So they have the loss to the Rams. have the loss to the Cardinals. And then, I just don't.

know how much to chalk that up to, you know, injuries and just, you know, make it easy and say it's that, or if there's actually a major problem with the 49ers going forward. So they have the big game against the Chiefs and they have the Cowboys and they have the Buccaneers and they have the Seahawks again, then they have the Packers and they have the Bills. They have like a gauntlet coming up here. And then after that, you have the Bears to finish it off, if you're wondering.

but yeah, they have a gauntlet going up. what are your expectations for the 49ers? this was my Superbowl pick. So, Superbowl pick from the NFC, not Superbowl pick to win. But, yeah. So thoughts on them and, do you, are you concerned? I mean, we all know that I was on the win total under, so. Yeah. Drew wished injuries upon people. That's fucked up.

No, mean, you know, all I said was that, you know, historically unhealthy team was completely healthy for the majority of the season. that, like if that doesn't scream regression to They filtered out the water last year, but then they went back to normal. is something, whatever is bad, it's contaminated. Exactly. So, you know, with that and everything, like

I do believe that better days are ahead for the 49ers and I believe that this week in particular, there is going to be one of those games that will put them back on the map and be like, the 49ers are back. They're still the top dogs in the NFL. You have them beating the Chiefs this week, right? Correct.

Drew (53:32.928)
So I think that, you know, again, going forward into this, going through the rest of the season is going to be, it's going to be tough because these, first games that they were playing, those were supposed to be like, pretty much to be like, like one loss, maybe two. Probably should have been five, one, four and two. Yeah. Like they shouldn't be three and three right now. Cardinals loss was bad.

So was the Rams loss. And I mean, arguably, they probably should have lost to Minnesota as well. Sorry, they probably should have lost to New York as well. Like, yeah, it does get kind of tough in the back half of the season, which is why I played their win total under. But at the same time, I would love to see the Seahawks turn their life around.

Because I have them winning the division and I was looking like a goddamn genius there for a second. We have the Seahawks start off three and and they were and three with a loss of the Giants in the middle of that because we let somebody go scott free on a game tying field goal this man's like you know what I'm athletic I know I can't touch the the the. Yeah I was just jump over the whole line and just block this field goal.

He didn't he like volleyball spiked that thing. wasn't even Bro. Right. Yeah. So yeah, we're moving on to the Seahawks. We're three and three. That's great. Looking like my fantasy team out here. It's so weird, though, too, because like we have the offenses. It's I mean, we have the weapons. Kenneth Walker, obviously, has been in and out of the lineup. So that kind of makes things a little tough. But Zach Sharbert, nice filled in as a formidable backup. Jackson Smith and Jigba's definitely got more involved.

but we've just been having a tough time converting at certain times. We've had a tough time getting stops at certain times and, I've been missing our field goals too. That doesn't really help things too much either, but yeah, Seahawks doing Seahawk things. So we have a big one against the Falcons this week. So that's going to kind of tell me a lot, going forward on what team we're actually going to be because we've kind of showed the best of both worlds and the worst of both worlds. So, yeah, based off of your predictions, I'm assuming that you have the Seahawks.

Drew (55:57.282)
getting out of this little rut that we've took ourselves into or what? I mean, in for this defensive young guru, I ain't seeing too much. looks OK when you're playing against Bo Nix. Yeah, in, you know, in theory, they would they would kind of start turning things around and everything. But at the same time, I.

I really want much to do with them and the scary thing is my model likes them this week. Good. yeah, don't know about that. know, and yeah, but that's also that's also the thing too, that I like why I ended up taking him is that

They've lost three in a row. But, and so there's this perception of, okay, this team is maybe a dead team. Like they, they're actually not as good as we, as we thought they were when they initially started out three and and then you have Kirk cousins and the boys come into town and they're, they're red hot. They're blowing teams out. They're putting up 500 plus yards on the offense and stuff. like I might be tempted.

I very well could be tempted, not gonna lie. You know, the model the model is 62 % right now through through the first six weeks of the season. So I

And I might might sprinkle the money line on that too. That's interesting for sure. Yeah. So rounding out the rest of the NFC West, you have the Cardinals who are sitting at two and four, which is so weird because at the start, you have the start of the season where, you know, they are giving the bills run for their money.

Drew (58:03.09)
and they actually go to this huge lead and the Bills end up walking them down and all that kind of stuff. It's like, okay, you were supposed to lose the Bills. Then they blow out the Rams. So you're like, okay, wow, the Cardinals actually are a good team. least their offense is going to be elite this year, not elite, but great with Kyler Murray. And they're just going to outscore teams or have to outscore teams. But then since then, their point total against the Lions was 13, against the commanders it was 14. And the commanders are not a good defense as we talked about.

I the 49ers they had 24 but against the Packers they had 13. So their offense has just been abysmal lately. You know, part of that I guess you could say is because of the lack of having Marvin Harrison for this last game. But overall they've had their full array of weapons. thoughts on the Cardinals or where they go from here because like, know, you already have kind of locked up, drafted Marvin Harrison. So I mean, maybe just not looking pretty for them though. It seems just kind of like a lost year.

Yeah, and I mean, to be fair, like most folks weren't well, I wasn't expecting them to be like, thought they'd be competitive. I yeah, I thought that they would be like a pretty high scoring scoring offense. But I wasn't expecting them to come up with with wins. think kind of what you were trying to where you were getting at there is that the scoring output isn't even close to what we were expecting to see.

and that is ultimately the, the major downfall too, is that they, their defenses is also let them down. And whenever you have a bad defense, you can't really play to, some of your strengths, which would be running the ball with James Connor. because then you're just running on the clock. Don't really have an opportunity to, to set up the play action pass. can't really run, or they're not really running.

him as, as a runner and that's, that's what ultimately makes him dangerous. That's what makes him look like, like Mar Jackson and everything. but if they're not allowing him to do that, then you know, that's, that's not going to really open up the offense that much for them right now. They're sitting at 19th in the league in terms of third down, conversions, over expected there and

Drew (01:00:24.93)
Like they're just not putting themselves in good positions to be successful. You know, they're always finding themselves in third and long as opposed to, you know, running maybe a couple shorter plays instead of taking like the deep bomb passes down the field. We know Kyle and Mertur can throw the ball, but- Marvin's down there somewhere. Yeah. Like it's, but they're not connecting on them. And that's ultimately the problem is that they're-

taking too many risks and not having nearly really any reward out of it. And you you can do that all you want, but you're just going to be sitting next to Deshaun Watson without a job. So, yeah. So, and then lastly, you the Rams who talked about it kind of ended up being a lost season with the injury to Puka Nakua with the injuries to Cooper Cup. Cooper Cup supposed to have a chance to play this season or play this week.

upcoming as he's been a limited participant in practice. I mean, you thought that that you would have like one of the better wide receiver tandems in the league or at least wide receiver duels when it comes to Cooper, Cops, Pooka, Nakua with Matthew Stafford, who is starting to get up there in age, but ended up being too too at well Tyler Johnson show because of these injuries. So yeah, the Rams are again, it's been another lost season due to injury, which is very unfortunate for them because a lot of people ended up having the Rams.

Initially in the preseason is kind like a potential dark horse just because they thought their offense was going to be elite when you have those two or rod receivers when you have Kyron Williams, but just hasn't come to fruition due to these injuries. So any thoughts on the Rams? Yeah, I mean, it's a it is pretty pretty tough for them in terms of like what what could have been kind of offensive season and that was like the main thing that everybody's looking forward to.

knew the defense was gonna be bad. Like that was a surprise. But that could be top five offense though. Yeah, it was supposed to be, you know, top tier talent out there and stuff too. But everyone and their mom got hurt. And that was the other thing as well with last year. Same kind of thing with San Fran. They were all pretty much healthy most of the season. And, you know,

Drew (01:02:46.574)
I mean, I want to say regression to the mean, know, regression to the mean happened again and you know, here we are. Another interesting little little factoid here is that in terms of in terms of, you know, the outcome that happens whenever a quarterback drops back to pass, in particular on the LA Rams, you can expect a target to be thrown about 89 % of the time.

that same scale. That's kind of where we were looking at your boy, Caleb Williams and how bad he was and stuff. On the flip side, that's where you see the Rams surprisingly. 89 % of the time, every time they drop back, they'll at least try and get the ball to somebody. And that's a more of a scheme thing than anybody, than anything. And that's what Sean McVeigh, that's his thing. He can scheme you and me open if you want it. So can scheme my grandma open if you want it to. Grandma's birthday is also a little hot.

They want to the ball a lot, they've also just been trailing a lot. they've been checking it out there. So, you know, so what could have been season and, hopefully next year they can get a little bit healthier and then kind of go from there. one, one last note on them real quick too, is that, if I do recall you were out there saying,

the drop off of Aaron Joe or of Aaron Donald isn't even that much bro like they're not even gonna miss him dude like what the hell bro that's what you sound like too that's that's how you said it they're currently they're currently second to last in EPA per play on the on the defensive end has 0.65 sorry 0.165

The next team is Jacksonville. We know how bad Jacksonville is. So we all know that their defense hasn't been good, but the one game that you take out from the Cardinals, other than that, I mean, like it hasn't been good, but hasn't been bad. They have 26 of the Lions, 24 to the Bears, 24 to the Packers and it could have been worse, but their offense has not been able to do shit. So I mean, like, I don't know what you want the defense to do. It's like, wow.

Drew (01:05:08.43)
Man, we're supposed to these pros. We're supposed to have this kind of degree. You're supposed to have these all pros on the offense and stuff. me a little break. nah, mean, nobody should move the The Jets did it last year and they had Zach Wilson as quarterback. got this talked about that. Zach Wilson has been up until the first six weeks, has played better than Aaron Rodgers had this year. I that grass. saying, if the Rams have this savior in Matthew Padford...

Like they should, they should be in the Super Bowl every year. Like if they're throwing it to me and you, don't know what you want. I don't know what you want me to They're coming up with new names for people at this point. I don't even know who these people are. I know who Tutu is, but then there'll be some random name that I'm like, right. Like Whitcomb or something like that. I thought they had Andrew Whitworth back out there. was like, you can cut some weight. Yeah. So I'm out here running for his life.

Straight dying out here because we ain't got so hopefully your boy Cooper Cup, you know Shoot something But that has been the jam-packed episode covered the entire league in the division Is there anything else that you wanted to cover real quick before we get out of here for this upcoming weekend? Yeah a couple things here before I dip dodge duck and dive and dodge

on out of here. Yeah, picks that picks that I got going on for this week.

I'm just gonna go with straight model picks and just kind of go from there and then I'll add on plus or minus a couple. So rapid fire here, got the Broncos, minus two and a half, you know me, I'm taking the money line as always. I got the Colts, it's kind of, yeah, Colts. don't like Anthony Richardson.

Drew (01:07:11.126)
And he's to be back this week. Whatever the model says it, doing it. So Colts money line, because I don't like taking the taking the minus three there. I'm done betting on the Titans, so I don't care if it's, you know, plus 17. I'm not taking them. I am done every time I played them. I've lost. So I am there a dead team to me, even though the model says it doesn't matter. The planning is the bills this week minus nine.

Moving on. The Seahawks plus three. You like it. I love it. I believe they're getting like 20, 29 % of the bets right now too. So very contrarian. Like we talked about too. Great spot for them playing, playing the other dog there. Like the, the bangles as well. The Browns are a dead team. The model likes them even regardless of, of having knowledge that a Mario Cooper is no longer there. like them.

We also like the the Raiders plus seven I don't I don't think in any any world where like the Rams are at the current state that they are in right now that they should be playing I have 15 receptions and four touchdowns as soon as he goes back Matthew's house like I hear every single target. That's it. I missed you

Do they do they confirm that he was gonna be back or is no they just said he was a limited participant in practice So like I'm gonna say it's trending in the right direction, but nothing's been confirmed Raiders plus seven Okay I Had a few of those same ones I had the seagulls plus three because we need to do something drew. This is ridiculous at this point

I have the Texans. understand that the offense is still going to be a little degraded even without Nico Collins, but I just don't like the Packers at this point. saying, I'll take the rate Texans with the point. got the Eagles minus three. This is going to be a revenge game for Saquon. So feel like they're going to do everything that they can to get him the ball. Plus I think the Eagles are just a better team. feel like this is going to be like one of their games where they actually do potentially have a blowout against the Giants who still could be without Malik neighbors, which is kind of crazy. I don't know if it's just been this year or whatever with the concussion protocols, but

Drew (01:09:37.942)
We talked about it before the show started. Like it's like, it's like two weeks now at this point, like, you know, like, cause Malik was out two weeks, Devante Smith was out two weeks. Like, yeah, the concussions, the NFL has really been kind of, but hurry down on those and making sure that they completely go through the protocol and stuff ends up being more than two weeks. But yeah, lastly, give me the Eagles minus three. Yeah. I mean, I don't hate them. of course.

The other other one I had was a 49ers money line as well Give me the Chiefs plus two right now Plus two it's plus one right now Yeah, these yeah, I'll take money line Yeah, no, yeah and then

going with the commanders as well. I think this is going to be absolute bloodbath. I don't think that eight is enough. you gonna do to come next week, Drew? We come into this show and Caleb Williams outperform Jane Daniels and you know what saying? And now has the better record. The Bears play the Bears play the commanders. It's going to be Jane Daniels versus Caleb. shoot.

nevermind. They're gonna buy this. The commanders play the Panthers. The Bears play the commanders next week. I think the Bears are on by this week. Okay, yeah. Well, next week, they're gonna be disgusting. I can't wait to talk about that. Dude, I like I cannot run to I cannot run to the to the to the book fast enough to put to place whatever bet that is that like, me look at the line right now.

It's the perfect situation. It's perfect. You have to be in because the commanders can't stop a nosebleed. Caleb Williams is improving every single week as a quarterback and the Bears got a good defense. So let me see here. So they're playing next week. Let's see what the line is. And you already know the other commanders are probably going to be like plus six or some random. I didn't say before, before I look at what the line is. You think it's going to be, you think it's going to be commanders by six? It's going to be, it's to be in its commanders are at home.

Drew (01:11:59.726)
So yeah, it's gonna be probably commanders like plus five and a half six. Five and a half six. I'll say that's a pretty good line. I'll commanders. I'll say commanders four and a half. We'll see. Let me see here. They're at home. Yeah, they're gonna be like, yeah, they're probably two or three point better on a neutral than the home side. They're home. Blah, blah, blah, blah. Stupid.

Drew (01:12:27.566)
minus one and a half. my God. screaming. Hold on. Let me place this right now. Thank you. I'm gun Vegas gave some respect, put some respect on that name. It's not just Caleb Drew. It's that defense. I don't even care how public of a play this is. I, look, anything. Can I max bet this?

wait, I emptied the bank account today. come this time next week. With commanders at home? That's crazy. I mean, and that's the thing too. It's like, who's the better team? Okay, stop it. It's because of the commander's defense. They can't stop anything. Yeah, it's a shootout every single time in the, in the bears actually have a pretty, bears are pretty decent defense.

when you had a shootout against the Ravens and the Bengals, both of them defenses are tissue paper. The Bears defense, good. Yeah, well, I'm here too. I'm going take the over on that. It's 47 and a half. 47 is a key number. 23, 24. Yeah. Take the over on that as well. Okay, let me lock that in real quick before that shit moves. If you see the market move, it was because of me. Yeah, it's true put $50,000.

It's like, are commanders, why is it commanders minus seven now? I don't understand what's going on. But yeah, that's, those are, those are the young plays there. And I do have some plays on, the totals and stuff, but I'll just, I'll just put that into, into the app there. We are pushing past two hours. Yeah.

now. So beefy. So this has been a jam packed. One last thing. One last thing real quick, real quick. Shout out to Sabrina INSQ. Absolute Dagger. Like, that's a bad shot. Exactly. Hold this for me. Buckets. That is, she, you know, missed the one before it. They get it went right back to her. The whole plan was ISO at the top.

Drew (01:14:44.002)
just like how they would do with Steph ball game. So shout out your Dodgers drew eight. Shout out to the Dodgers as well. I'm getting the job done finally in the postseason. I think it's because they haven't trotted out Clayton Kershaw this season in the end of the postseason. So that means that we actually might have a chance. And my, my future bets that I had on the on the Royals to win the

To win the AL sadly came to an end that that was more of like a pipe dream that I had it was like a fine. Okay, you just have that ahead of time. You didn't have the specifically beat me. I play so like the end of the season. It was like, gotcha. It was something crazy. It was like $5.00. Like 500 or something like that. I was I was cash out. Yeah. I I hedged. Okay. Yeah. So that

I mean, not crazy, but but yeah, so made it out of the ladder. So it's good. But that's yeah, that's all I got. Also, your boy ran his first half marathon while we were away as well to get my young medal here. So this face is fake. Okay. So you know, Boston, Boston, here we come. No saying what high school cross country athlete did you steal that from? Okay. All right.

Anyways, kudos to that. very impressive. I would die literally. But yeah, that'll close out this episode everybody. So I can say we apologize for missing the past few weeks, but hopefully jam packed episode was able to get us back on the right track. So that this has the Colley Shop podcast. If you're hosting Alex Hayes and Drew Moore, still make sure to follow us on all of our social medias, on Instagram or where we get our pics, as well as be put on our podcast where you can find your normal podcasts, being on podcasts, Spotify, YouTube.

wherever you can see Apple, Google, Amazon, you know, know the drill. We got it anywhere you want your podcast. got it. You know what I mean? We got it. If you want it. All right. Anyway, we'll see you all next week. If you want to get your room. We got it. All right.